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T.J. House is a Break Candidate for the Late Rounds in 2015
Of all pitchers who threw at least 100 innings in 2014, only two possessed ground ball rates above 60%. One was Dallas Keuchel, Houston's young ace who took the league by storm last year, throwing 200 innings with a 2.93 ERA. The other was T.J. House. You might be surprised to find that the similarities between these two pitchers don't stop with ground balls:
| K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | HR/9 | ERA/FIP/xFIP | BABIP | |
| T.J. House | 18.7% | 5.1% | 60.9% | 17.7% | 0.88 | 3.35/.3.69/.3.10 | .332 |
| Dallas Keuchel | 18.1% | 5.9% | 63.5% | 19.3% | 0.50 | 2.93/3.21/3.20 | .295 |
| League Average | 19.4% | 7.1% | 44.6% | 34.5% | 0.91 | 3.82/3.81/3.78 | .296 |
In terms of ground ball rate, strikeout rate, and walk rate, the two are within a rounding error of each other. If you want to get precise about things, House actually has a slight edge in the latter two categories. While I'm certainly of the opinion that Keuchel is the better pitcher, it's worth noting that the gulf between the two isn't as large as their reputations alone would imply.
What to make of that BABIP gulf though? As the league adjusts to his stuff, House is likely to see some regression in his peripheral numbers next season. Some might rightly worry just how well his stuff will play if he's sporting a BABIP 12% higher than league average when that happens.
Personally, I think House's batted ball data has less to do with the quality of the contact he's allowed and more with the fact that the Indians were under the inexplicable impression last season that Carlos Santana could play 3rd base. The Indians simply stunk defensively in 2014, posting the sixth highest BABIP allowed by any team in baseball. While playing on the road, they were the second worst in all of baseball.
The good news for 2015 is that the Santana experiment is over. He'll be manning 1st base next season. Meanwhile the slick fielding SS Jose Ramirez: Fantasy Baseball Player News & Analysis" href="http://www.rotoballer.com/fantasy-baseball-mlb-player-news/Jose+Ramirez">Jose Ramirez will do his best to help Indians fans forget the Asdrubal Cabrera years on the diamond. Lonnie Chisenhall, though not great with his glove, is still an improvement over Santana at 3B. Francisco Lindor is on his way. Simply put, the infield House will be pitching in front of next year will be considerably better than last year's. I expect to see the results of this improvement in his BABIP.
Playing time will be a bigger concern for House in 2015 I'm afraid. After ace Corey Kluber, the Indians have a number of interesting arms to fill out their rotation, including Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer, Gavin Floyd, Danny Salazar, Josh Tomlin, and Zach McAllister. While I'm confident that his performance in 2014 should ensure that a starting job will be House's to lose, I'm not sure how much leeway Terry Francona will give the young arm if he struggles or is injured early on.
In Summary
Unless Spring Training struggles put his job in jeopardy, I'm of the opinion that House deserves to be drafted in all leagues as a late round pick. Unlike many young arms who will be going in the draft, House already has 100 innings logged as a quality pitcher with fundamentals that suggest he's not just a fluke. Certainly, regression is always a concern for young arms with limited sample sizes, but there's also room for optimism in his numbers as the defense behind him improves. Every year an owner wins his league in part because he gambled on the right guy. There's a not-crazy chance House is that guy in 2015.
