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Can Jean Segura Return to Early 2013 Form?
Last season was a year of tears for Jean Segura owners. Most fantasy baseball pundits (cough, yours truly, cough) tried to warn fantasy GMs away from Segura during the offseason. We told you the power wasn’t real, the steals would likely slow down, and the batting average was a bit of a mirage. Everything predicted came true. Most fantasy GMs with Segura on their roster were ready to storm Miller Park with pitchforks and torches. There was at least one guy who called using the bathroom, "Taking a Segura."
The anti-Segura sentiment has swung far enough that he is once again a sleeper. We’ve seen his best and his worst, so it’s a solid bet that he’ll be somewhere in the middle in 2015. Not convinced? Good. Let’s dig a little deeper...A lot deeper actually...
It wasn’t a coincidence that Segura’s batting average fell almost 50 points from his 2013 season. His BABIP was almost exactly 50 points lower than his 2013 BABIP, but there is light at the end of the tunnel for Segura’s batting average. His 2.59 GB:FB ratio in 2014 was almost identical to his 2.52 mark in 2014. He was basically the same groundball-heavy hitter in 2014 that he was in 2013. He also posted a line drive rate (18.3%) in 2014 that was basically identical to his 18.0% mark from his rookie campaign. He hit almost the same amount of ground balls and a few more line drives, but his batting average went down. A lot.
Segura puts a ton of balls in play and managed to find a lot of gloves last year. Segura posted a higher than average BABIP in 2013 and then posted a lowish BABIP for the majority 2014, but his BABIP climbed back up at the end of last year. It doesn't necessarily mean his batting average will fully rebound to 2013 levels, but likely to be somewhere in between Rookie of the Year and fantasy baseball poison.
His batting average might recover, but what about the power? Last year’s power numbers were bad and they’ll probably always be bad. Segura simply isn’t a power hitter and to expect double digit homers from him is foolish. He posted double digit homers exactly once in his career - Single-A. It would be unfair to expect power from Segura in a softball league. His HR:FB ratio was 10.4% in 2013. Anyone who thinks it will ever top 10% again might as well invest in some beachfront property in Idaho.
We've covered the average issues and the power outage, but there's still the worrying lack of steals from a guy who once stole 44 bases.
There’s a direct correlation between being on base and stealing bases. Segura was only on base 28.9% of the time he stepped to the plate. That’s worse than Billy Hamilton. Repeat. Jean Segura’s OBP was WORSE than Billy Hamilton. His stolen base opportunities declined significantly from 2013 to 2014, so his steals declined. This isn’t exactly, “What came first? The chicken or the egg?”
Segura’s plate discipline only improved slightly in 2014. His strikeout rate dropped from 13.5% in 2013 to 12.6% in 2014. His BB% increased from 4.0% in 2013 to 5.0%. The improvement is statistically insignificant, but the good news is that he didn't get worse. It's looking more and more likely that his issues were directly related to bouncing balls and "suddenly forgetting how to play baseball."
In Summary
Segura will likely be ignored by most fantasy GMs who either A) Drafted him last year when they were told it was bad idea or B) were smart enough to ignore him last year and will continue to do so. Segura could be a solid value in auction leagues (it’s hard to see anyone paying more than $5 for him in a mixed league) or in a snake (who’s going to take Segura before the 14th round in a 12-team league?). He’s a solid bet for a bounce back and an equally solid bet to help your fantasy team in 2015.
