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I'm breaking up this dynasty / keeper league rankings article into two parts. It has to be done. To give any sort of depth in the outfield position, you at least have to rank 50-60 outfielders. I ranked 60 in total, and this article will cover the first 30 on my list.
Remember, these are my rankings for dynasty and keeper leagues as we enter into the 2015 MLB and fantasy baseball season. You can also see our consensus outfield rankings for 2015 for non-keeper leagues. Let's get rolling.
Editor's Note: Don't forget to check out all of RotoBaller's 2015 fantasy baseball rankings and rankings analysis to help prepare for your approaching fantasy drafts. Let's win some leagues!
Tier 1 - Dynasty / Keeper Outfield Rankings
1) Mike Trout, 23, LAA
2) Giancarlo Stanton, 25, MIA
3) Andrew McCutchen, 28, PIT
4) Carlos Gomez, 29, MIL
5) Yasiel Puig, 24, LAD
If you don't know that Trout should be the top overall pick in your dynasty draft then you're not ready to play dynasty yet. It's that simple.
If you need potentially the best source of power in the game then Stanton is your guy. He hasn't failed to hit 20 home runs in any of his major league seasons. In fact, in three of his six seasons he's hit over 30 home runs. He's only going to get better, and the lineup around him is improving as well.
McCutchen is a five category contributor similar to Trout. He's been a picture of consistent production since 2011. Look for more of the same going forward.
I'm sure many of you remember when Gomez was barely even a league average player if that. The light bulb seemed to turn on in 2012. He won't get you as many runs batted in as the other guys in this tier, but he still has plenty of category juice.
I know Puig disappointed some owners last year. I'm not too concerned. Sure the slumps last year weren't great, but I love that Puig has cut down on his strikeout rate and improved his walk rate. A more patient Puig is a hitter the league should fear and someone you should want in your fantasy lineups.
Tier 2 - Dynasty / Keeper Outfield Rankings
6) Adam Jones, 29, BAL
7) Bryce Harper, 22, WAS
8) Justin Upton, 27, SD
9) Jose Bautista, 34, TOR
10) George Springer, 25, HOU
Jones is a guy who will hit .280, 20 home runs, score 75 times, drive in 80 runs, and usually steal 10 bags every year. The only time he's failed to reach those numbers in the past four years is in 2011 and 2014. In 2011 he scored only 68 runs, and in 2014 he stole only 7 bags. I think we can find it in our hearts to forgive him.
I'll be the first to admit I'm not a huge fan of Harper. In his young career he's had a lot of trouble staying healthy. When he is on the field, the numbers he puts up suggest maybe he can live up to his hype.
Upton is a great source of power. The dimensions of Petco Park do worry me a bit, but I still think he'll be capable of hitting 20 home runs a year. His strikeout rate is gruesome, but at least he does know how to take a walk. The Padres also have a much improved lineup that should help Upton's counting stats.
Bautista is a bit on the older side and has dealt with a few injuries in recent years. That wouldn't stop me from drafting him high. A guy who is capable of giving you 30 home runs, 100 runs scored, and 100 runs batted in on a yearly basis doesn't come around often.
Between two levels of the minors in 2013 Springer hit 37 HR, scored 106 runs, drove in 108 runs, and stole 45 bases. Springer followed that up by mashing 20 home runs in limited at-bats in the majors last year. The power is definitely there. I believe the speed will come as he gets more comfortable. I am worried about his incredibly high strikeout rate, but he's worth the risk.
Tier 3 - Dynasty / Keeper Outfield Rankings
11) Carlos Gonzalez, 29, COL
12) Michael Brantley, 27, CLE
13) Starling Marte, 26, PIT
14) Jacoby Ellsbury, 31, NYY
15) Hunter Pence, 31, SF
The reason for Gonzalez being so low is simple. He's Mr. Injury Prone. If he's on the field, he is an amazing talent who is capable of 20-20 seasons. That's too big of an if for me.
I love Brantley. I know there are those who are saying major regression is coming his way, and I don't disagree that some regression is coming. He was simply too lucky last year. Everything broke his way. Still, he's capable of double digits in home runs and steals while hitting for average. There's a lot to like.
Starling Marte is under appreciated in fantasy circles. He slashed .291/.356/.453 with 13 HR, 73 R, 56 RBI, and 30 steals last season. That's become the norm for him the past two years. Sure he won't contribute much in the runs batted in department, but four category contributors are still worth your time.
Ellsbury had a solid first year as a Yankee. Assuming he can stay healthy I expect his numbers to be even better this year. Just draft him knowing that his speed may not age well, and his injuries may catch up to him in a few years.
I've had Pence on almost every single one of my fantasy teams. He's nothing if not consistent. The negatives are that he has less speed than Ellsbury, and his speed may not age well.
Tier 4 - Dynasty / Keeper Outfield Rankings
16) Corey Dickerson, 25, COL
17) Billy Hamilton, 24, CIN
18) Gregory Polanco, 23, PIT
19) Matt Kemp, 30, SD
20) Ryan Braun, 31, MIL
Talk about making the most of your opportunities. With Cargo going down for a large part of the season last year, Dickerson seized his opportunity to show he was a budding star for the Rockies. In limited at-bats he slashed .312/.364/.567 with 24 HR, 74 R, 76 RBI, and 8 SB. Over the course of a full season I believe we could see healthy Cargo numbers from Mr. Dickerson.
Hamilton stole 88 total bases in 2013 between the minors and the majors. He didn't miss a beat in his first full season swiping 56 bags in the process. As he continues to make adjustments he could be a player who steals 65 bags a year while hitting about .250-260.
Last year I was the first to jump on the Polanco bandwagon in my league. He rewarded me with the typical ups and downs of a rookie season. I'm still a believer. This is an eventual 20-20 player who will hit for a high average yearly.
Gone are the days when Kemp will hit 20 home runs and steal 30-40 bags for your fantasy team. In fact, it's reasonable to be worried about Kemp's power numbers now that he'll play his home games at Petco. However, last year he had a huge surge in his batted ball distance. Kemp is still a reliable option. Maybe the move to a new team will rejuvenate him.
How you feel about Braun depends largely on how you feel he will recover from his hand surgery. I'm choosing to believe he's recovered. He's capable of hitting around .275 while popping 20 homers, driving in 80 runs, and stealing 10 bags.
Tier 5 - Dynasty / Keeper Outfield Rankings
21) Yoenis Cespedes, 29, DET
22) Christian Yelich, 23, MIA
23) Jason Heyward, 25, STL
24) Jay Bruce, 27, CIN
25) Byron Buxton, 21, MIN
The 2012 season is a dream for Cespedes owners. Simply put, he's just not that kind of player. His 2014 slash line of .260/.301/.450 with 22 HR, 89 R, 100 RBI, and 7 SB reflects his actual talent. I like him in the Tigers lineup, but who knows where he'll end up after that.
Christian Yelich is another underrated player. I believe a 15-20 home run season is in his future. I'm aware he has yet to hit double digits homers in the majors. As he develops, I believe he could add some power. Hitting in front of Giancarlo Stanton also means you're going to score a ton of runs per year.
Heyward's power numbers have been dropping the past few years. In fact, last year he had a career low .113 ISO. He's young enough that the power numbers may rebound for him. The move to the Cardinals should help him out, and he's a good buy low candidate.
Bruce has shown a worrying trend of continuing a spike in his strikeout rate since 2010. That said, this is a player who in three of his past four seasons provided fantasy teams with 30 home runs, 80runs scored, and 95 runs batted in. It's reasonable to think that last year was Bruce's floor, and he should bounce back in a major way.
Buxton is considered a can't-miss prospect for the Twins. His numbers in the minors in the past year don't look great, but he did suffer a concussion shortly after being promoted to Double-A. Keep an eye on how Buxton performs this year in the minors. If he does well, he's easily worth a development stash.
Tier 6 - Dynasty / Keeper Outfield Rankings
26) Jorge Soler, 22, CHC
27) Hanley Ramirez, 31, BOS
28) Alex Gordon, 30, KC
29) Wil Myers, 24, SD
30) Melky Cabrera, 30, CHW
I expect to get a lot of flack for this Soler ranking. In fact, I could easily see where I'm too low on him. Hitting five homers in 97 at-bats is impressive, but it's such a limited sample size that I'm not willing to dub him the future just yet. However, his upside is projected as a .285 hitter with 25 home runs a year. If he can reach that potential, he'll quickly move up my ranks.
Ramirez should benefit from the move to Fenway. He should also benefit from not playing one of the most physically taxing positions anymore. However, the outfield pool is so deep that I'm not very high on him.
Gordon may not be a sexy choice, but he's capable of double digits in both home runs and steals. He also has been consistently healthy the past four years. Guys like this are just as necessary to the success of your team as the exciting young prospects.
Myers is only a few years removed from being considered one of the top prospects in the game. We've yet to see a full season from Myers so I'm not ready to write him off as a total bust. I especially like Myers if he ends up moving away from Petco.
One of my best moves last season was drafting Cabrera to be my third outfielder. Cabrera provides a little bit of everything while hitting for a fairly high average. With the move to the White Sox, Cabrera will most likely find himself hitting in front of Jose Abreu leading to more run scoring opportunities.
That's it for the top 30 outfielders. To feel comfortable with my team going forward I'd want to make sure I owned at least two of the players listed here. Look for part two of my outfield rankings coming soon.
Until next time RotoBallers,
Rek
