X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Free NBA Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (3/12/22)

Thunder Dan's top NBA betting picks and best bets for today's NBA games on 3/12/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and NBA player props.

If you didn't get enough of a fix on Friday night, we have one of the best Saturday night NBA slates we've seen in some time. The earliest games tip at 8:00 PM and we have only one game that is projected to be a potential blowout with a double-digit spread. Three games tonight also feature playoff teams facing off against each other with the Bucks-Warriors being the premiere matchup on the slate. My ATS picks were strong yesterday (3-1) with the only team to let us down being the Wolves who lost to Orlando on the road. I wish I could say the same for player props, however, but I went 1-3 there as Darius Garland struggled with his three-point shooting, and Deandre Ayton and Spencer Dinwiddie came up just a few stats short of their marks.

Attention New York, Iowa, and Tennessee residents!! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with Caesar's Sportsbook! Get up to a $1500 deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access if you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win on Caesar's.

It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if your discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Saturday, March 12, 2022. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 50% off using code SUMMER. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today

  • Season Record 129-117-2
  • Against the Spread 67-55-2
  • Over/Under 28-37
  • Other/Props 34-26
  • Teasers/Parlays are not included in the overall record

I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI.

I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.

One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.

(click to enlarge)

 

NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread

Indiana Pacers (+5.5) @ San Antonio Spurs (235.5 total)

Listen, I don't want to keep picking the Spurs but the universe keeps putting me in a position to do so. They pulled out a close win against a good Utah team last night, once again proving that they're one of the better teams in the NBA with a losing record, or maybe just proving that Utah isn't the contender we thought they might be this season.

I was set to cross this game off and maybe just bet the over (but it's already pretty high for my liking) but Malcolm Brogdon is out for the Pacers tonight. His absence is huge as the Pacers have been pretty respectable with him in the lineup since he returned. Without him, they'll have to lean harder on Tyrese Haliburton, Buddy Hield, and Chris Duarte. Those young guys can score, but they don't bring the same defensive presence or veteran decision-making that Brodgon does.

I was looking for trends to back up a fade of this pick but couldn't find any. Is San Antonio worse on back-to-backs? Nope. Maybe they're not good after wins? Nope. The reality is when San Antonio is playing well, they're significantly better than the bottom-tier teams and can knock off some good teams. Hopefully, they don't play down to the competition tonight and can cover this moderate 5.5 point spread.

The Pick: Spurs -5.5 (-110)

UPDATE: THIS PICK IS WITHDRAWN! San Antonio is resting their top three players in Murray, Poeltl, and Keldon Johnson.

 

Washington Wizards (-7) @ Portland Trail Blazers (218.5 total)

I was hoping to see Washington like -5 or -6, but they're already to -7. I mentioned yesterday I don't like laying that many points but this situation demands it. Portland has been quite literally the worst team in the NBA over their last ten games with a whopping -16 net rating. They've gone full tank mode and look to have even shut down their lone young stud in Anfernee Simons, too. They're rolling out a bunch of guys who would normally be in the G-league every night and just getting absolutely stomped, losing by 48, 43, 30, 32, and 37 over the last two weeks. That's just absolutely nuts!

The Wizards hung with the Lakers until the late third quarter last night and have Kristaps Porzingis back in the lineup and playing well. Assuming he's not rested here on a back-to-back (there's been no indication so far that he will be), he should dominate tonight and Washington should roll. I have them projected to win by 10 or more so even if this line moves (and it should) a little more towards the Wizards, I still like them quite a bit.

The Pick: Wizards -7 (-110)

 

NBA Totals Betting Picks

Minnesota Timberwolves (+5.5) @ Miami Heat (226 total)

This should be a good game and after laying an egg last night in Orlando, I expect Minnesota to bounce back here and play up to their competition as they face the current #1 seed in the East here. Both these teams have exceeded expectations so far this season and are well on their way to the playoffs, but Minnesota has much less room for error.

We are looking at the total here, not the spread anyway, but I think a competitive game goes a long way towards this game going over like I think it can. Both teams are playing their second game in two nights and they both have strong trends supporting their game totals going over without any rest. Miami has gone over their total in nine of eleven games with a +10.9 point differential while Minnesota has gone over in nine of twelve games with a +5.9 point differential.

Sometimes you have to go with trends over the model, which still has this game under by a few points. The overall trend is higher scoring games across the league in the last month, too. Miami and Cleveland combined for 222 points last night and the Wolves are a much better offensive team than Cleveland. Miami will surely get theirs tonight against a poor Minny defense, we just need the Wolves to be efficient on offense.

The Pick: OVER 226 (-110)

 

Toronto Raptors (+6) @ Denver Nuggets (225 total)

After I just got done saying scoring is up across the league I'm now trying to convince you to take an under here. While my point projections have been far from perfect, this total projection warrants consideration as I have it coming in over eight points below Vegas - by far the most on this slate. Denver was a team we hit with unders quite often earlier in the year and then their defense kind of disappeared for a while. During their recent surge (8-2 over their last ten games), however, they have the sixth-best defensive rating in the NBA. And Toronto is only place behind them at 7th.

I like the Nuggets to win, but most importantly I think this game becomes a grinder. Neither team plays fast and this game projects to have the slowest pace of any tonight at only around 96 possessions which is nearly three fewer than league average. Toronto scored 117 in a big win against Phoenix last night, but I don't see Gary Trent Jr. being able to repeat his 8-11 shooting performance from downtown again. I'm comfortably on the under here.

The Pick: UNDER 225 (-110)

 

Attention New York, Iowa, and Tennessee residents!! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with Caesar's Sportsbook! Get up to a $1500 deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access if you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win on Caesar's.

 

NBA Prop Bet Picks

5:00 PM UPDATE

Klay Thompson over 2.5. threes (-170) - A lot of juice on this prop but a nice little parlay builder. Thompson is getting up a bunch of three-point attempts but hasn't been shooting a great percentage lately. He's a 36% shooter on the season, though, and that means if he takes 8-9 attempts tonight he should get three and the Bucks allow the most three-point attempts in the league. This is a great environment for stats, too.

Tyrese Haliburton over 32.5 PRA (-125) - No Brogdon tonight and an elite matchup against the Spurs poor defense. The Spurs resting three starters means Indiana should have a decent shot of winning and for Haliburton to pile up stats.

Rui Hachimura over 17.5 PRA (-115) - No Porzingis at PF for the Wizards tonight means we should see Hach continue to get solid run. In his last two games, he's come off the bench and played 24 and 25 minutes, compiling 22 PRA in both contests. I love him in this spot against the terrible Portland team.

I usually post all my favorite props in our RotoBaller premium slack on a nightly basis - if you're not a premium member for NBA content you can change that by signing up here!

We just added a new player prop tool that is available to our NBA premium and betting premium members, too!

 

NBA Teaser/Parlay Betting Picks

The Pick: WAS/UTA/DEN/SAS money line parlay (+220)

 

NBA Betting Picks: Team/Player Stats Matrix

(click either chart to enlarge)

I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.

Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy basketball mobile app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, lineup notifications & DFS articles. All free!

NBA DFS News and Injury Alerts

More DFS Lineup Picks and Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Terry McLaurin

Still Not Pleased with Contract Situation
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Yu Darvish

to Make Season Debut on Monday
MLB

Nationals Fire Dave Martinez, Mike Rizzo
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
KaVontae Turpin

Arrested on Two Charges
Cole Ragans

to Begin Throwing on Monday
Theo Johnson

Prioritizing his Health this Offseason
Andrés Giménez

Andres Gimenez Hits 10-Day Injured List
Jermaine Burton

Continues to Show Growth
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
Austin Cindric

Remains an Overrated Road Racer
Brad Keselowski

Likely to Brush Past Chicago Street Course to Focus on Daytona
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek One of the Best Underdog Options After Strong Runs at Mexico City and Last Year
Cole Custer

Strong Mexico City Run and Xfinity Series Chicago Win Make Him a Solid DFS Option
Erik Jones

Likely Not Good Enough on Road Courses for DFS Consideration Despite Poor Qualifying Result
Noah Gragson

May Be Better Than Other Cheap DFS Options
Riley Herbst

Despite Decent Mexico City Run, Don't Expect Riley Herbst to Contend at Chicago
Cody Ware

Is a Road Course Veteran, but It's Rarely Helped Him in NASCAR
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Is The Heavy Favorite to Win at Chicago Street Course
Christopher Bell

Should Be Strong Despite Practice Struggles at Chicago Street Course
Cam Ward

"Not Expecting" to be handed Starting Job
Chase Claypool

Eager to Get Back on the Field
Wyatt Langford

Activated, Playing on Saturday
Jay Huff

on the Move to Indiana
Cam Whitmore

Wizards Acquire Cam Whitmore from the Rockets
LaJohntay Wester

Stands out on Special Teams
Clarke Schmidt

Likely to Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Nolan Arenado

Scratched from Saturday's Lineup
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Starting on Saturday
Corbin Carroll

Activated from 10-Day Injured List
Cincinnati Bengals

Shemar Stewart, Bengals Continue Contract Talks, No Progress Made
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Potential Giannis Antetokounmpo Trade may not Happen Until "August, September"
Ha-Seong Kim

Removed Early During Season Debut
ARI

Christian Fischer Retires From NHL at 28
NHL

Spencer Martin Moves to Russia
WAS

Anthony Beauvillier Re-Signs With Capitals for Two Years
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Sitting Out With Foot Issue
Isaiah Neyor

Impresses at Minicamp
Houston Rockets

Jock Landale Waived by Rockets
Bo Bichette

Back in Blue Jays Lineup
Jonas Valančiūnas

Jonas Valanciunas Considering Returning to Europe
Miles Sanders

Works With Starters During Mandatory Minicamp
Jabari Walker

Signs Two-Way Deal With Sixers
Chimere Dike

Titans Could Move Chimere Dike Inside
Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith not Guaranteed Roster Spot
Anthony Bradford

Working Hard to Win Back Starting Job
Byron Young

Still Improving?
Cody Simon

Jonathan Gannon has Been Impressed With Cody Simon
SirVocea Dennis

has Impressive Offseason
Trevor Penning

Could Still Have a Role in New Orleans
Jonathan Kuminga

Warriors Decline Recent Offer for Jonathan Kuminga
Orlando Magic

Moritz Wagner, Magic Agree to One-Year Deal
Clarke Schmidt

Placed on Injured List
José Soriano

Jose Soriano Throws Gem Against Braves
Robbie Ray

Earns Ninth Win in Complete Game
T.J. Watt

Likely to Reset the Edge-Rush Market
George Springer

Blasts Two Homers, Drives in Four
James Wood

Goes Yard in Five-Hit Night
Bradley Beal

Suns Discussing Potential Buyout
Los Angeles Lakers

Jaxson Hayes Staying with the Lakers
NBA

Damian Lillard "Open" to Signing With a Team This Offseason
Max Muncy

Out at Least Six Weeks
Clarke Schmidt

Leaves Start with Forearm Tightness
Colson Montgomery

Promoted to the Major Leagues
Pittsburgh Steelers

Omar Khan, Steelers Agree to Three-Year Contract
Max Muncy

Goes on Injured List With Knee Bruise
SJ

Sharks Claim Nick Leddy Off Waivers
SJ

Sharks Sign Dmitry Orlov to Two-Year, $13 Million Contract
CAR

Nikolaj Ehlers Joins Hurricanes on Six-Year Contract
Chau Smith-Wade

Having Stellar Offseason
Ace Bailey

Inks Rookie Contract With Jazz
Divine Deablo

Could be the Quarterback of the Defense
Boston Celtics

Josh Minott Inks Deal With Celtics
Sandro Mamukelashvili

Heading to Toronto
Jared McCain

Not on 76ers Summer League Roster
Dylan Harper

Unavailable for California Classic
COL

Brent Burns Inks One-Year Deal with Avalanche
STL

Blues Land Pius Suter on Two-Year Deal
Morgan Frost

Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
WPG

Gustav Nyquist Moves to Winnipeg
Cody Glass

Devils Re-Sign Cody Glass to Two-Year Deal
PIT

Anthony Mantha Joins Penguins
Cleveland Cavaliers

Larry Nance Jr. Headed Back to Cavaliers
Eric Gordon

Remaining with 76ers
Los Angeles Lakers

Deandre Ayton Joining Lakers
Emil Heineman

Signs Two-Year Deal with Islanders
Simon Holmstrom

Re-Signs with Islanders for Two Years
UTA

Nate Schmidt Signs Three-Year Deal with Mammoth
UTA

Brandon Tanev Moves to Utah on Three-Year Contract
Dallas Mavericks

Dante Exum Returning to Dallas
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Has Surgery to Repair a Turf Toe Injury
Bud Cauley

in Great Form Ahead of John Deere Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

a Player to Avoid at John Deere Classic
Jake Knapp

Riding Momentum Ahead of John Deere Classic
PGA

Sungjae Im Looking for Consistency at John Deere Classic
Ryan Gerard

a Solid Option at John Deere Classic
Rickie Fowler

Looking to Rebound at John Deere Classic
Cameron Champ

a Volatile Option at John Deere Classic
Jackson Suber

Staying Below 70 is Key to Success for Jackson Suber
Kevin Roy

Playing Better Heading into John Deere Classic
Justin Lower

Hoping for Something Positive in Illinois
Ben Kohles

a Long Shot at John Deere Classic
Stephan Jaeger

Attempts to Stop Roller-Coaster Ride
Beau Hossler

Needs a Challenge in Illinois
Harry Higgs

Has Potential at John Deere Classic
Nick Dunlap

Keeps Plugging Through Tough 2025 Season
Kevin Yu

a Near Must-Play at TPC Deere Run
PGA

J.T. Poston Returns to John Deere Classic Looking for Another High Finish
Thriston Lawrence

a Decent Fit For John Deere Classic
Tom Kim

Not Finding Much to be Happy About Ahead of John Deere Classic
Si Woo Kim

is a Prohibitive Fade at John Deere Classic
Ben Griffin

is the Appropriate Favorite at TPC Deere Run
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF