Wide Receiver Matchups to Target on Wild Card Weekend - Courtland Sutton, Jalen McMillan, Rashod Bateman

Welcome to WR Matchups to Target: Wild Card Weekend edition. We finished the regular season with two more “in the money” picks (3x multiplier on DraftKings salary), including the WR1 on the week in Drake London, putting our final tally at 30 such picks for the regular season (34% rate). Six games are on deck in this first weekend of the playoffs.

Each week, we will use matchup data from Pro Football Focus to determine wide receivers to target based on who they will be primarily lining up against that week. These are players more likely to return a 3x multiplier on their DraftKings salary, a benchmark for consistently winning DFS cash games. 

Below are five of the top WR vs. CB matchups for this week’s full slate of playoff games. Use these to set season-long lineups, make player-prop picks, and gain an edge in DFS.

Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos

$6.6K on DraftKings, $7.1K on FanDuel; vs. Brandon Codrington

Sutton finished the 2024 season as WR15, his best year as a pro. His big-play ability and magnetic connection with QB Bo Nix led him to 1,787 air yards this season (second most) and 26 deep targets (seventh most).  

The 29-year-old is in a great spot to perform for DFS against the Bills on Wild Card Weekend this week. Buffalo’s defense has slowed down throughout the season, entering the playoffs having given up the ninth-most passing yards. It ranks fifth-worst in the NFL in fantasy points given up to opposing receivers over the last four weeks.

According to PFF, Sutton will have a particularly solid matchup advantage against Rasul Douglas (77.6 matchup grade). As the seventh-most-expensive receiver in DK, he is a value play in cash games this weekend.

Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings

$6.1K on DraftKings, $6.8K on FanDuel; vs. Darious Williams

The second-year pro has had an impressive second half of the season, scoring seven touchdowns over his last eight games. He sits 10th among NFL receivers in red-zone targets this season with 18, including at least one such target in eight straight games. 

After being largely shut out by CB Terrion Arnold last week, Addison enters Wild Card Weekend looking to get back on the track that had him averaging 20.9 full-point PPR points from Week 12-17. The Rams passing defense has been vulnerable of late, finishing the 2024 campaign ranked 25th in DVOA.

In a game with a 47.5-point over/under, Addison is a great bet for a score in GPP contests on Monday night.

Jalen McMillan, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

$5.2K on DraftKings, $6.4K on FanDuel; vs. Mike Sainristil

The rookie turned heads for the Buccaneers to end the season, averaging 19.8 fantasy points over his last five games while catching at least five balls in each of his last four games. If he can hit 80% of that average, he will return home run value this week.

He starts his first NFL playoff game against the Commanders, who rank 20th in passing defense DVOA. QB Baker Mayfield has been sharp of late, averaging 25 completions, 293 passing yards, and three touchdowns per game over his last four. 

This game boasts the highest total of the weekend (50.5 points). Look for McMillan to continue his hot streak on Sunday.

Jalen McMillan and Ja’Marr Chase were the only players to catch 7+ TDs in a 5-game span this season 👀 pic.twitter.com/lRttBtD1vi

— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) January 9, 2025

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Rashod Bateman, Baltimore Ravens

$5K on DraftKings, $6.1K on FanDuel; vs. Joey Porter Jr.

The Ravens will be without Pro Bowl receiver Zay Flowers for their Wild Card matchup with the Steelers, opening the door for Rashod Bateman to be the value pick of the weekend. 

Bateman has the sixth-best overall matchup advantage of all receivers, according to PFF. Despite finishing the season with a top-7 passing defense DVOA ranking, Pittsburgh gave up the third-most fantasy points to opposing receivers over its last four weeks. 

Bateman will have a great opportunity to soak up a healthy portion of the 25% of the team’s targets vacated by Flowers. He is a no-brainer pick in cash games this weekend.

In their two meetings this year PIT utilized man coverage with 40% & 72% of their defensive snaps

Among 100 qual WRs
(per @FantasyPtsData)

Rashod Bateman

6th in separation
21st in route win rate

Bet those Bateman overs this week people.

— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) January 10, 2025

Quentin Johnston, Los Angeles Chargers

$4.8K on DraftKings, $6.3K on FanDuel; vs. Jeff Okudah

Johnston had his best game of the season last week, catching 13 passes for 186 receiving yards against the Raiders. He has three top-24 performances at the position in his last five games.

Johnston has PFF’s third-best individual matchup advantage of the week against outside CB Jeff Okudah on Saturday (99.4 matchup advantage). The Texans gave up the 11th-most fantasy points to opposing receivers this season.

The Chargers are hitting their stride at the best possible time, with QB Justin Herbert playing his best football of the season -- he has topped 23 fantasy points in three straight contests. With Joshua Palmer ruled out again, expect Johnston to see another week of elevated volume.

Quentin Johnston today: 13 catches, 186 receiving yards.

A really cool story in player development from year one-to-year two pic.twitter.com/jiTv2b6fX4

— Field Yates (@FieldYates) January 6, 2025

Thanks for reading, and good luck with your DFS contests!

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