Well, that's certainly a way to make a splash in the free-agent market. The Boston Globe reported David Price signed a seven-year, $217M deal to join the Boston Red Sox today, making him the highest paid starting pitcher (Clayton Kershaw - 7 yr/$215M) and seventh highest paid player in all of baseball.
Price brings with him a career 3.09 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 8.57 K/9 ratio over eight seasons and has experience pitching in the formidable AL East. Last season was his best statistically, going 18-5 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with 225 strikeouts.
That is a fat stack to give a pitcher for his age 32 through 37 seasons. GM Dave Dombrowski has a relationship with Price through their time in Detroit and must have realized Zach Greinke had no intentions of leaving the west coast, leaving him with no choice but to pay Price. This deal, combined with the trade for Craig Kimbrel, increases the pressure on Boston to bounce back immediately from a sour 2015 campaign.
Paying a 37-year old $31M doesn't sound like the ideal scenario (there's an opt-out after three years) but in the immediate future this is a great move for Price's fantasy prospects. He loves pitching at Fenway. In 11 starts at Fenway Park, Price owns a 1.95 ERA and 60/21 K/BB ratio. Sure, those numbers were against the team he now pitches for, but the point stands that he isn't intimidated by the park's dimensions. In case you were curious, he has a sub-3.34 ERA at every AL East park.
Price showed no signs of slowing down in 2015 and remains a top 10 pitcher heading into 2016. PITCHf/x graded his fastball at 19.7 wFB (6th among pitchers) and his changeup at 10.5 wCH (8th), both career highs. Opponents were only able to produce a .371 SLG percentage on his fastball while the changeup limited hitters to a .226 average. He's still produced a ton of swinging strikes (11.9% SwStk) and hasn't lost anything on his heater.
There's two downsides to David Price, although neither have 2016 fantasy baseball implications. The first is his playoff track record. He has a 2-7 record with a 5.12 ERA in eight postseason starts. Normally a poor postseason track record would be a deterrent to getting paid $30M+ a season, but keep in mind the last left-handed pitcher to lose his first seven postseason starts was Randy Johnson. Go ask the 2001 Diamondbacks how he turned out. Again, this has no impact for fantasy but it should be noted.
The second downside is the track record. Price now has 1504.3 innings on his arm and will be 32 to start the season. The last left-handed pitcher to win a Cy Young Award after the age of 32 is a name we've already mentioned: Randy Johnson. Heck, he won it at age 39. Not trying to set a precedent, just noting you can't write Price off solely due to age.
Overall, this is a good move for Price's fantasy prospects heading into 2016. He remains in the division he's most comfortable with and on an offense more than capable of providing him with the run support to win 15+ games. FanGraph's Steamer tool predicts a 2.84 ERA/1.06 WHIP with 226 K over 215.0 innings. Those are numbers fantasy owners would gladly take to anchor their rotation and statistics I can stand behind. The only loser here is the common Boston fan who has to pay $20 for a Bud Light.
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