Barrels and Brls/BBE: Using Sabermetrics for 2023 Fantasy Baseball

Previously, we looked at how the exit velocity is only one piece of the fantasy baseball analysis puzzle. Baseball broadcasts will commonly cite Launch Angle (LA) to complement their EV figures, but it is given in terms of degrees. LA is basically a fancy way of saying things that the fantasy community has used for […]

Second Base Draft Values for Fantasy Baseball - EDV Finds Undervalued, Overvalued Picks

And we're back to the Expected Draft Values (EDV) series, where we look at historical data to identify both over and undervalued players of all types. Whether you're targeting power, speed, power+speed, batting average+power, and so on, we've got you covered. We started with first base and now head to second base as we make […]

First Base Draft Values for Fantasy Baseball - EDV Finds Undervalued, Overvalued Picks

Baseball is coming, so it is time for another year of the FSWA-award-nominated Expected Draft Values (EDV) series, where we look at historical data to identify both overvalued and undervalued players of all types. Whether you're targeting power, speed, power+speed, batting average+power, and so on, we've got you covered. We'll start at first base and […]

MLB Pitcher Prospect Graduates - Sophomore Fantasy Baseball Outlooks (AL West)

In the third installment of a 6-part series focused on pitchers who exhausted rookie eligibility during the 2022 MLB season, I review how the pitching fundamentals of select American League West pitchers have evolved and use that information to forecast their MLB futures. Fundamentals will be quantified using my Fielding- and Ballpark-Independent Outcomes (FaBIO) pitcher […]

Pitchers With Fastball Velocity in The Tank - Potential Fantasy Baseball Risers

One of the ways a pitcher can have a breakout season is by gaining velocity. We see this quite often. A pitcher will find a way to add velocity to their pitches (mainly their fastball), which makes that primary pitch a bit more effective and enhances their offspeed pitches as well by separating the two […]

Shohei Ohtani Will Make Spring Training Start Feb. 28

Los Angeles Angels starting pitcher and designated hitter Shohei Ohtani will reportedly make a Spring Training start on Tuesday, February 28, per a tweet from MLB.com's Rhett Bollinger on Wednesday. According to Bollinger's tweet, Ohtani "was originally slated to start March 1." Also per Bollinger's tweet, the veteran will also serve as the designated hitter […]

Five Outfielders To Target in 2023 Fantasy Baseball Drafts

Welcome back, fantasy baseball players. Welcome to this year’s edition of outfielders to target. I have a list of five outfielders to target around their ADP (or even a little earlier) who could help your fantasy team in 2023. While looking at projections and past results, the list that follows was carefully crafted to give […]

ADP Fallers to Buy for Fantasy Baseball - 2023 ADP Comparisons

"Buy low, sell high." The age-old advice. Simple but powerful. It is perfectly applicable in the fantasy baseball world as well, so that is what we're talking about today. I am going to explore the players that have seen the biggest drops in their ADP when comparing 2022 to 2023. Now, there are plenty of […]

Starting Pitcher Rankings and Tiers for 2023 Fantasy Baseball

Hello, welcome fantasy baseball friends to an early look at the 2023 starting pitcher rankings. Spring training is right around the corner and leagues are going to start ramping up, so now is a great time to dive into what to expect out of the starting pitcher landscape.   I’ve ranked 75 of the top starters […]

Statcast Exit Velocity: Using Sabermetrics for 2023 Fantasy Baseball

If you've watched a baseball broadcast in the Statcast Era, you have undoubtedly noticed the broadcasters commenting on a batted ball's exit velocity, or EV. Many have taken to using stats like Hard% and Soft% to forecast how a player should be performing, expecting larger Hard% rates to produce larger BABIP and HR/FB figures. There […]

Angels, Shohei Ohtani Taking Contract Talks Slowly

While the Los Angeles Angels and designated hitter/starting pitcher star Shohei Ohtani are open to potential contract-extension talks, Ohtani's agent, Nez Balelo, said that they are taking things "one day at a time." Balelo said, "Shohei's earned the right to play through the year, explore free agency, and we will see where that shakes out." […]

Anthony Rendon Healthy, Committed For 2023

Los Angeles Angels manager Phil Nevin said Monday that third baseman Anthony Rendon is "in a really good place" coming into spring training. The 32-year-old dealt with wrist and hip surgeries throughout the 2021-22 seasons, resulting in just 442 plate appearances across the two seasons with disappointing results. Rendon has been a solid fantasy contributor […]

Taylor Ward Could Hit Leadoff For Angels

Los Angeles Angels manager Phil Nevin said on Monday that he's leaning toward having a lineup that features outfielder Taylor Ward at leadoff, with outfielder Mike Trout behind him at No. 2, designated hitter Shohei Ohtani at No. 3 and third baseman Anthony Rendon in the cleanup spot. Hitting first in front of Trout and […]

Noteworthy Hitting Leaders (xSLG) - Statcast Review for Fantasy Baseball

After diving into the xBA leaderboard last week, I'm continuing my look at Statcast metrics by turning our eye to the xSLG leaderboard. We'll go through some of the leaders in the hopes of not just giving you Statcast numbers but explaining how I believe those numbers impact the projections I have for the given […]

Hunter Renfroe Wins Arbitration Hearing

Los Angeles Angels outfielder Hunter Renfroe has won his arbitration hearing against the organization. The right-handed slugger will make $11.9 million for next season, which is a significant boost from his $11.2 million salary from last season. The 31-year-old hit .255/.315/.492 with 29 home runs and 72 RBI in 125 games with the Milwaukee Brewers. […]

5 Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers Who Broke Out in 2022

Sometimes you can smell it coming and other times it's out of nowhere. Breakouts can happen at any time at any age, and when they do happen, they become a fantasy manager's best friend. With young, developing players who display continued improvement over a few seasons, breakouts can be seen with relative ease. However, it's […]

Analyzing Pitcher Fly Ball Data for Fantasy Baseball 2023

Pitchers don't have much of a say about what happens after a pitch they throw is put into play. There is a ton of randomness that occurs after a hitter makes contact with a ball, and that makes a lot of pitching statistics hard to trust. Getting ahead of this gives us an advantage. We […]

Sam Bachman Regains Velocity

Los Angeles Angels starting pitcher Sam Bachman appears to be in great shape heading into the spring. The 23-year-old is back up to 95-96 mph in recent bullpen sessions. That's great after seeing Bachman drop into the low-90s last season. The former first-round pick struggled during the majority of his 2022 campaign. He finished with […]

Analyzing the MLB Rookies - 2023 Fantasy Baseball Prospects

One great way to win your fantasy league is to get your hands on the MLB rookie of the year. Julio Rodriguez and Michael Harris II were two of the biggest keys to success last year, as they went on to return first-round value after being very cheap to acquire on your fantasy team. There […]

Hitter Busts at Every Position - Comparing ATC Projections vs. ADP for Fantasy Baseball

With the big football game officially behind us, the official "official" start of fantasy baseball season has nearly dawned. It's easy to start obsessing over finding this year's biggest hidden jewels, dreaming at night that your fantasy groundhog will see its shadow and bring you six more weeks of sleepers. But don't forget about their […]

Indefensible: Bad MLB Defenders Who Could Lose Playing Time And Fantasy Baseball Value In 2023

The Super Bowl is over and it's time for everybody to turn their attention over to the joys of fantasy baseball. At this point in the preseason, fantasy baseball managers should be working through their projections, whether it's making their own or going through the projections given by their favorite system, like the ATC projections […]

Luis Rengifo Wins Arbitration Case Thursday

Los Angeles Angels infielder Luis Rengifo won his salary arbitration case against the team on Thursday, according to a source. Rengifo will earn $2.3 million in 2023 instead of the $2 million that the Angels filed for. The Angels failed to upgrade at the shortstop position in the offseason, so Rengifo is expected to enter […]

Matt Moore Officially Agrees With Angels

Free-agent left-hander Matt Moore officially agreed to a one-year, $7.5 million deal with the Los Angeles Angels on Thursday. Moore could immediately become an option for saves for the Angels, alongside Carlos Estevez, Jimmy Herget and Ryan Tepera. A starter for the majority of his career, the 33-year-old veteran southpaw pitched exclusively in relief for […]

Shohei Ohtani To Start On Opening Day

The Los Angeles Angels announced on Thursday that starting pitcher Shohei Ohtani will get the Opening Day nod on March 30 on the road against the Oakland Athletics. It's a no-brainer and shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone. The 28-year-old should also get the Angels' home opener on April 7 in a much tougher […]

Shohei Ohtani Not Discussing Future With Angels

Los Angeles Angels two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani said he hasn't had any "deep" conversations with the team about his future and isn't currently focused on his future right now with spring training beginning. Ohtani is in the final year of his deal with the Angels, but he's focused on pitching for Team Japan in this […]

Angels Closing In On Deal With Matt Moore

The Los Angeles Angels are closing in on a deal with free-agent left-hander Matt Moore on Thursday, according to a source. The 33-year-old southpaw had a great 1.95 ERA and held opponents to a .564 OPS in 74 relief innings pitched for the Texas Rangers last year. The deal is expected to be for one […]

Pitchers To Downgrade? Analyzing the Shift, Ground Ball Data and Rule Changes

One of the biggest things people are talking about and studying for the 2023 MLB season is what effect the changes to the rules about shifting will have on the game. I myself talked about that on the hitting side earlier this offseason, you can read that analysis here. Today, I want to get into […]

Five Overvalued Starting Pitchers for 2023 Fantasy Baseball Drafts

We have brought you five hitters to avoid in each of the infield and outfield. Now adding to the fold is five starting pitchers to avoid in 2023! When playing fantasy baseball, the player pool is so deep you have to know it front and back. A key strategy I use when I am preparing […]

Top 25 First-Year Player Rankings (FYPD) - Dynasty Prospects for 2023 Fantasy Baseball

When fantasy baseball players begin their first-year player drafts this year, they will have 2022 MLB draftees, foreign imports from Asia, and January 15 signees to sift through. There can be a lot of static in those stats, especially when you are dealing with minor-league players and some fantasy baseball prospects who haven't even played […]

Projecting the Value of Starters Who Changed Scenes: Carlos Rodon, Pablo Lopez, Carlos Estevez

Often, a change of self is needed more than a change of scene, but for some, that change can create new opportunities. For others, that change can come with roadblocks. Today, we're going to look deeper into three pitchers in entirely different environments in 2023 and what that change will mean for their fantasy baseball […]