RADIO
Hello, Rotoballers! I hope everyone is doing well and is ready for another exciting year of PGA DFS. Showdown has returned for another season on DraftKings alongside the PGA Tour, and we’re here to help guide you, whether you’re looking to continue your journey from where you left off in 2024 or if you’re new to this particular DFS format.
This week, the tour returns to Scottsdale, Arizona, for the Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale. Thomas Detry leads the tournament at 12-under after shooting a 7-under 64 in round 2. He is followed closely by Michael Kim, who shot an outstanding 8-under 63 in the second round. Alex Smalley has played well in the opening rounds and posted a 6-under 65 in round two, putting him two shots behind Detry and tied with Kim for second place. As we head into an exciting weekend, there are three golfers tied at 9-under and five others tied at 8-under. Fortunately, this year, the focus is on the golf rather than unruly fan behavior, which made headlines last year.
Unlike standard golf DFS, which covers the entire tournament, Showdown focuses on each round as an individual event. It's crucial to find players who excel on approach shots, but it’s also important to make roster decisions that provide ownership leverage by selecting riskier players who may not have been performing their best recently but could have a strong bounce-back round. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.
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Weather, Course Conditions, and Tee Times
TPC Scottsdale played 1.73 strokes under par in round 2, 1.59 strokes easier than round 1. We should anticipate similar conditions for round 3 as we saw today, so expect to see more low scores. It's important to target golfers who have been strong on approach, creating birdie opportunities, and who need to be aggressive to move up the leaderboard.
Round 3 Strategy
The key to success in showdowns is to look for ball strikers who can have a standout putting performance. Having two exceptional putting days in a row is quite challenging, so we should focus on golfers who have been consistent with their approach shots and created birdie opportunities but fell short in converting them.
It’s also beneficial to target players who need to improve their position on the leaderboard, as they often push harder on moving day. Additionally, golfers who have shown some positive form in the first two rounds are great candidates to consider.
Keep in mind that ownership levels tend to decrease as the morning's first tee time approaches, so identifying players who are likely to bounce back is crucial for achieving significant wins.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: Scottie Scheffler is playing in his second tournament after recovering from a serious hand injury that caused him to miss the beginning of the season. In the first round, Scheffler shot 2-under, gaining 3.45 strokes on approach. However, he was excellent in the second round, shooting a 5-under 66 while "only" gaining 1.76 strokes on approach. Scheffler lost strokes putting in both rounds and if he can find his putting touch tomorrow, expect to see him at the top of the leaderboard heading into Sunday’s final round.
Trust the grind.
Scottie Scheffler reflects on the importance of @MaxHoma's attitude and work ethic this week @WMPhoenixOpen. pic.twitter.com/FfkmSloP2J
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) February 8, 2025
$9,000+
Favorite Play: Rasmus Hojgaard has quietly played two solid rounds. In round 1, he gained 2.12 strokes on approach and 1.42 strokes putting. In round 2, although he only gained 0.13 strokes on approach and lost 0.06 strokes putting, he still managed to card a 4-under 67, which was one shot better than his first round. Expect him to put all the pieces together tomorrow by being aggressive, making birdies, and moving up the leaderboard.
Other Options: Sam Burns
$8,000+
Favorite Play: Byeong Hun An has played steady and consistent golf in the first two rounds. He has gained strokes both off the tee and on approach in the opening rounds. However, he lost an astonishing 2.63 strokes in putting during the second round and still managed to post a score of 1-under 70. An's putting performance was well below his usual standards, so we can expect him to bounce back in round 3.
Other Options: Maverick McNealy, Wyndham Clark
I found out today that im allergic to making putts inside 15ft.
— Byeong Hun An (@ByeongHunAn) February 8, 2025
$7,000+
Favorite Play: Davis Thompson has been outstanding off the tee this week, gaining 2.63 strokes off the tee and 1.64 strokes on approach during round 2. However, he lost 1.98 strokes putting but still managed to finish with a 4-under 67. Thompson can't be any worse with the flat stick than he was today. Thompson will likely be one of the lower-owned players in this range but could end round 3 as one of the highest scorers.
Other Options: Keith Mitchell, Daniel Berger, Denny McCarthy
📊 WM Phoenix Open Leaderboard after Round 2
1. Thomas Detry (-12)
T2. Alex Smalley (-10)
T2. Michael Kim
T4. Tom Kim (-9)
T4. Jordan Spieth
T4. Christiaan BezuidenhoutWho will make a big move on Saturday in Scottsdale? pic.twitter.com/LAxUiVlqKl
— GOLF.com (@GOLF_com) February 8, 2025
$6,000+
Favorite Play: Mackenzie Hughes faced a tough first round, losing 0.36 strokes on approach and 0.76 strokes off the tee. However, he turned things around in Round 2, shooting a solid 5-under 66. Hughes gained 2.21 strokes on approach and 0.67 strokes while putting. He appears to have found his rhythm and I expect him to carry this momentum into Round 3.
Other Options: Bud Cauley
Guy I'm Playing That You Shouldn't
This will be an every week addition to my article where I'll pick a golfer who I believe has shown he can go nuclear but has every chance he could dud and should generally be reserved for the largest field GPP tournaments.
Kevin Yu started the week slowly, finishing round 1 with a 71. However, he bounced back in round two, gaining 1.56 strokes putting. Historically, round 3 has been Yu's best scoring round, and he has proven that he can go low when he gets the flat stick working. I expect him to build on his solid round 2 performance and continue playing well in round 3.
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to use it, there is a video at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck, and may the odds ever be in your favor.
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