RADIO
Rookies are extremely important in fantasy football. In dynasty leagues they ARE the draft and in re-draft leagues, they can be season-defining draft picks or waiver wire pick-ups. Even with all the content out there, I still think the fantasy football market generally underrates rookies in redraft fantasy football.
Drafters don't like taking players they haven't seen play yet or don't know much about, and drafters underestimate the impact of late-season contributions. Rookies are likelier to put up their best fantasy scores in the fantasy playoffs rather than at the beginning of the season.
In this article, I will lay out the case for five rookie draft avoids. By "avoid," I do not suggest fading these players completely if you play in a lot of leagues. I simply believe they are overpriced currently based on where the market is valuing them compared to other options.
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Jonathon Brooks - RB, Carolina Panthers
Jonathon Brooks is a fine player. His film was solid and he absolutely has fantasy asset within his range of outcomes. If you are rebuilding in dynasty, he's a reasonable choice. However, for teams that are competing and in most re-draft formats, I will be out on Brooks at his current price in 2024.
Brooks can theoretically be at his best for the fantasy playoffs, and people will likely point to Breece Hall last year as a reason it's possible. Just because it's a possibility does not make it a good risk. First, investing a pick in Brooks early will likely cost you in terms of early season production. Not to mention, when he gets on the field, he'll likely be eased in, as there is zero reason for the Panthers to give him a heavy workload, especially early in the season.
As Stephania Bell notes below, one ACL injury means there's a re-injury risk. Brooks tore his ACL on November 11th last season, so it wasn't even early in the year. It's a huge risk to begin with, but when you bake in a projected bad offense and the fact that his film was just OK, it's not one I'm willing to take. With an ADP of 87 at RB22, you'll basically be punting a mid-round pick for the first part of the season. The Panthers are not expected to compete this year or be particularly good offense, so what exactly is the reward in the lucky outcome that Brooks gets to 90-100% in November? I won't pay to find out.
How do rookie RBs perform after recovering from an ACL injury? @LordReebs and @Stephania_ESPN discuss Panthers' new RB Jonathon Brooks and his potential impact on the offense this season. https://t.co/ypoXTh9nd9 pic.twitter.com/DJiwQkyPfg
— Sharp Football Analysis (@SharpFBAnalysis) June 21, 2024
MarShawn Lloyd - RB, Green Bay Packers
It's smart to target the Packers' backfield this year. Matt LaFleur has proven to be an excellent coach and Jordan Love made huge strides last year. There will be a ton of opportunities with Aaron Jones in Minnesota. The trend you'll notice with these avoids is that I am usually not high on players with unspectacular production profiles. Simply put, MarShawn Lloyd was a committee back with very little production as a receiver at USC. I don't think he's anywhere near the player Josh Jacobs is.
Lloyd's price isn't exorbitant at 142 overall and RB45, but there are multiple RBs going after him that I prefer straight up including Ray Davis, Jaleel McLaughlin, Ty Chandler, and Tyler Allgeier. He'll cost a relatively high pick in dynasty and a mid-round selection in re-draft or best ball, and the floor is extremely low for that price. The ceiling is a two-leg parlay that includes both Josh Jacobs getting injured and the Packers staff giving a significant workload to Lloyd, who had double-digit carries just four times last year and topped out at 17 carries.
Lloyd has some natural talent, including speed (4.46 40) at 220 pounds. He can punch it in from the goal line. However, both Josh Jacobs and A.J. Dillon are capable goal line backs already. Lloyd does not have a plus receiving profile, as he caught just 13 passes at USC. His day one role is in question as a late 3rd-round pick, and part of the reason I'm lower than consensus on him is that I think Josh Jacobs is one of the few backs in the league who excels as a workhorse. It's quite possible Jacobs is better than Lloyd at everything, so while LaFleur has commented on preferring a committee, personnel may force him to lean more on Jacobs when the bullets start flying. Not to mention, Lloyd's bell security was a big issue in college. Betting on backs who were not great in the passing game and had fumbling issues might not be a great idea.
Overall, Lloyd has theoretical upside if Jacobs were to go down, but even in that event, there's no guarantee he'd see enough volume to matter in fantasy football. A.J. Dillon is still hanging around and Lloyd has simply never handled a full workload. He would have to get there on efficiency, which is a risky bet that only pays dividends if the starter goes down. Draft Josh Jacobs at his cheap price and let someone else take his possible handcuff three rounds too early.
____________ BUT…
All the good with Marshawn Lloyd’s game, BUT…
10 career fumbles. 1 per 48 touches.
BUT can be a big eraser of value.
Not a death knell, BUT needs immediate improvement.#NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/AP0qtbrC70
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) February 2, 2024
J.J. McCarthy - QB, Minnesota Vikings
My process for evaluating players is fairly straight-forward. I'm a college coach, so I study film objectively and do my best to project translatable traits to the next level. I also look at advanced and standard stats and evaluate production profiles, which can provide context when watching film. To put it bluntly -- anything other than high level production at the college level is a red flag. Does a lack of statistical production mean a prospect is destined to fail? No, there will always be exceptions. However, from a directionally accurate general sense, it's hard for me to project exceptional traits and big-time pro production for players who did not produce at a high level in college.
J.J. McCarthy did what he was asked of on a loaded run-first Michigan offense. He also possesses physical traits that give him NFL potential. However, I think he was vastly overdrafted and was one of the more overrated QB prospects in recent memory. With that said, I am high on his surroundings, as Kevin O'Connell appears to be a sharp offensive coach and the Vikings supporting cast is excellent.
McCarthy attempted 18 passes in the National Championship Game. While I understand the goal of the Michigan coaching staff was not to increase their QB's draft stock, it's interesting that he wasn't an integral part of the game plan. McCarthy also once went 8-for-13 for 143 yards and three interceptions in a home game against Bowling Green. While it's certainly possible the Michigan coaching staff simply chose alternative routes to win by running the ball and play defense, it's at least eye-brow raising that they didn't let their QB showcase his ability more. McCarthy only attempted 30 passes three times this past season, including a TD-less 37-attempt performance at home against Purdue, and a 147-yard performance against Iowa.
His arm talent and athleticism are positive traits, but I question his ability to process at the NFL level. While the upside is there, I simply do not believe J.J. McCarthy will reach his ceiling based on his film and production profile. There is also a risk that he barely plays as a rookie, or at the very least doesn't start the season. My contention is that if O'Connell is such a brilliant developer of quarterbacks, Sam Darnold may find success. If he's not as impactful as we think, McCarthy may not make the enormous jumps required to excel in the NFL anyway.
“I would view J.J. McCarthy more as a developmental prospect…I did not see him as a first round type player in terms of traits and talent.”@GregCosell calling it the way he sees it as always on the @RossTuckerPod: pic.twitter.com/hGISR8615H
— Ross Tucker Podcast (@RossTuckerPod) March 7, 2024
Ladd McConkey - WR, Los Angeles Chargers
You've found it. You've found the first piece of content on the entire internet that doesn't praise Ladd McConkey. Everyone loves McConkey, and it's reasonable to be high on his potential. His draft capital was solid and the Chargers are extremely weak at receiver. McConkey, if he ends up being an actually good NFL player, could see a lot of targets. However, I think his upside is limited and believe he is being drafted at his absolute ceiling right now in most formats. Taking McConkey over Brian Thomas Jr. in any format is a mistake a lot of people are making.
First of all, the Cooper Kupp comparisons are nonsense. Kupp is 6-2, 208 with the ability to line up anywhere while McConkey is 5-11 1/2, 186 and profiles as a primary slot. Yes, McConkey played snaps out wide at Georgia. No, that does not mean he'll be able to do the same with any effectiveness at his size in the pros. They are different games.
McConkey is fast and has impressive highlights of certain routes. The problem is that he was not a consistently productive force in college, so why are we paying for him to be that as he steps up a level? He topped out at 762 yards in college and only caught 30 passes this past season. Saying his production profile is underwhelming is a massive understatement.
I've heard the excuses. The Georgia offense didn't have to throw to him. Too many blowouts. Curiously, Brock Bowers had no issue producing at a high level though. When I watched McConkey's film versus Alabama, I came away unimpressed with his translatable traits. I later found out that he was dealing with injuries during that game, and that injuries were an issue in terms of his production throughout his collegiate career. How is that a good thing? It's hard to stay healthy in college, and it sure doesn't get any easier in the NFL.
McConkey's price on Underdog is patently absurd. At an ADP of 69, you're paying a 6th round price to expect a slot receiver in a run-first offense to completely obliterate his best college season's production. It's not a bet I'm willing to make.
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