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Rhett Lowder 2025 Outlook: Small MLB Sample Was a Mirage, but Lowder's the Real Deal
8 mins agoRhett Lowder looked great for Cincinnati in 2024, going 2-2 with a 1.17 ERA in 30⅔ IP. His peripherals weren't nearly as good, as his 10.9% BB% was too high for his 17.2% K% and his 4.25 xERA and 4.73 xFIP don't buy Lowder's .272 BABIP or 0% HR/FB. However, those peripherals aren't indicative of Lowder. He posted a 3.64 ERA and 2.92 xFIP in 108⅔ Triple-A innings last season with a 25.3% K% and 5.4% BB%. His 26.2% FB% on the farm perfectly fit Great American Ballpark. Lowder features a four-pitch mix including a fastball he couldn't locate as a Red (9.6% SwStr%, 45.6% Zone%) and a slider utilized as a fastball (14% SwStr%, 55.9% Zone%). Lowder also has an elite prospect pedigree as the seventh overall pick in the 2023 draft with 60-grade control and "best pitchability" per a 2024 MLB Pipeline poll. He should get more strikeouts with fewer walks while inducing plenty of grounders in 2025. If Lowder cracks the Opening Day rotation, he'll earn a massive profit on his 554.20 ADP. At worst, he should be the first man up when injuries strike.
