RADIO
Pablo Lopez: A Stable SP2 Option
19 hours ago2024 was the tale of two seasons for Lopez, who put up an ugly 5.11 ERA in the first half, only to rebound for a 2.77 ERA in the second half. He finished somewhere in the middle with a 15-10 record, 4.08 ERA, and an excellent 4.83 K/BB ratio. Lopez shrunk his repertoire a bit in 2024. In 2023 he used five different pitches at least 10% of the time, but in 2024 he used just three pitches more than 10% of the time. What changed? He begun relying on his fastball more often, which worked well for him in 2024 but may not be sustainable at that level in the long term. In 2024 batters hit just .208 against Lopez's four-seamer, but he had a .241 xBA against the pitch along with a 90.2 MPH average exit velocity and a 19-degree average launch angle against. Based on the quality of batted balls he's allowing, it would be tough for him to repeat the .247 BABIP against his fastball that he had in 2024. The increased fastball reliance won't help his strikeout rate either, so expect a K rate closer to 25% like he had last year, versus the 29% he put up in 2023. Lopez isn't sexy, but he has a solid repertoire, limits walks, and pitches for a (supposedly) winning ballclub, making him a good SP2 for 2025.
