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Nick Pivetta 2025 Fantasy Baseball Outlook: Strikeout And WHIP Asset But Homers Loom
3 days agoSan Diego Padres right-hander Nick Pivetta is the definition of a “data darling.” Unfortunately, the results have not always aligned with the component metrics. Over the last two seasons, Pivetta has ranked fifth among starters in both strikeout rate (30%) and strikeouts minus walks (22.8%) (min. 200 IP). He ranks top 20 in WHIP over that time (1.12). However, Pivetta’s 4.09 ERA ranks 62nd despite a top 20 xFIP (3.52). Pivetta gets elite ride on his four seamer (19” induced vertical break) with well above average extension (6.8’). He introduced a sweeper late in 2023 that immediately became a whiff monster (35% last season); all five of his pitches returned at least a 20% whiff rate. So, where is the disconnect? Home runs. While Pivetta’s K-BB% compares well to Zach Wheeler’s, he’s allowed 1.59 HR/9 since 2023—13th worst and similar to Griffin Canning and JP Sears. It hasn’t been a recent problem either; for his career, Pivetta’s allowed 1.53 HR/9 over 1,029 1/3 IP. Although by reputation, he gets a park upgrade after signing with the Padres, Petco Park has been more homer-friendly than Fenway over the last three seasons (104 to 98 Statcast park factor). Overall, Pivetta will provide a raft of strikeouts, and he’s a great target for WHIP. Drafting him as a fifth or sixth starter at his current 206 NFBC ADP makes sense, especially if we have established a solid base in ERA.
