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Kyle Tucker 2022 Player Outlook: High Draft Cost After Elite Year At The Plate
3 years agoFollowing good offensive output in 2019 and 2020, Houston Astros outfielder Kyle Tucker took his play to another level last season, slashing .294/.359/.557 with 30 HRs, 14 SBs, 92 RBI, and 83 runs in 140 games. He rebounded from a rough first month, posting a .320 batting average and .986 OPS after April. Tucker backed up his .299 xBA by keeping his strikeout rate at 15.9%. His home run uptick seems legitimate as he was in the 76th percentile for Barrel% and posted a 96th percentile .580 xSLG. As well, his 16.1 HR/FB isn't concerning. Fantasy managers will take his stolen bases, but it leaves a little to be desired after stealing 35 bases combined in 2019. The Astros don't run much, tallying the seventh-lowest stolen base total since '19, so even with 60th percentile sprint speed, his steals are probably capped around 15. ATC and Steamer agree, projecting him for 17 and 14, respectively, in that category. Houston's deep lineup, even without Carlos Correa, might mean the 24-year-old continues batting sixth or seventh, limiting his runs and RBI numbers. Tucker will contribute in every category, but 2021 is probably his ceiling. ATC sees him finishing next season with a .280 batting average, 32 HRs, 96 RBI, and 89 runs, along with the 17 steals. Tucker's going 12th overall, but according to Rotoballer's expected draft values, that pick with his skillset should hit .300 with 33 HRs, 22 SBs, and a similar RBI and run total. His ADP looks like an overpay, especially with stars such as Mike Trout and Mookie Betts with a more proven track record being drafted behind him.
