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Welcome RotoBallers to our betting picks for the Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets, another article in our weekly series of free NBA betting picks for every game on the schedule. This free NBA betting breakdown article is for Sunday, June 4th.
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Today's Betting Overview - Heat @ Nuggets
The Heat take on the Nuggets on Sunday, June 4th at Ball Arena, Denver. RotoBaller provides free handicapping picks and odds for all NBA games throughout the 2022-2023 season.
- Matchup: Miami Heat (44-38) vs. Denver Nuggets (53-29)
- Date: Sunday, June 4th
- Time: 8:00 PM ET
- Venue: Ball Arena
Today's NBA Sportsbook Odds - Heat @ Nuggets
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Heat & Nuggets Key Injuries
Heat
- Victor Oladipo (Out) Knee
- Cody Zeller (Questionable) Foot
- Tyler Herro (Out) Hand
- Caleb Martin (Questionable) Illness
Nuggets
- NONE
Miami Heat - NBA Betting Analysis
In Miami's most recent game, Bam Adebayo led the team in scoring with 26 points, but the Heat fell to the Nuggets by a score of 104-93. Going into the game, oddsmakers had Miami as the 9.0 point underdog, resulting in an ATS loss for the team.
Now, the Heat's overall record sits at 44-38, placing them 8th in the Eastern Conference. The team's current record at home is 27-14 and 17-24 on the road. Miami's record against the spread is below .500 at 45-56.
Not only has the Heat's offense struggled to score the ball all season - ranking 40th at 109.5 points per game - but they have been even worse of late, averaging just 99 points per contest over their last five games. So far this season, the Heat are ranked 39th in pace at 96.2 possessions per game.
In terms of three-point shooting, Miami has found success when stepping beyond the arc, ranking 5th in three-point shooting percentage. The team's overall field goal percentage of 46.0% is 32nd in the NBA.
This season, the Heat have allowed an average of 105.6 points per game, good for 2nd in the league. In terms of three-point shooting, opponents have knocked down 34.0% of their looks from beyond the arc (12th) and 44.8% of their overall field goal attempts.
Miami's overall defensive numbers have been good despite the units struggles on the glass, sitting just 16th in defensive rebounds per game. The Heat are also a below average group in forced turnovers, at just 12.8 per game.
Denver Nuggets - NBA Betting Analysis
After taking down the Heat by a score of 104-93, the Nuggets are riding a seven game win streak. Nikola Jokic led the way in scoring with 27 points. Not only did Denver win the game, but they also covered the spread as 9.0-point favorites.
With the win, the team has moved to 53-29, placing them 1st in the Western Conference. So far this season, they have gone 34-7 at home and 19-22 on the road. The Nuggets have a 3 game win streak against the spread and have an overall ATS mark of 54-43.
In their last five games, the Nuggets have averaging 115 points per contest which is similar to their season average. Overall, Denver is ranked 15th in the league with a scoring average of 115.8 points per game.
Denver's three-point shooting numbers have been impressive this year, ranking 3rd in the NBA with a shooting percentage of 37.9%. However, their overall numbers have suffered from an average pace of 97.9 possessions per game, which is just 30th. Their current field goal percentage of 50.4% is 1st in the league.
This season, Denver has put together a strong defensive unit, allowing just 105.6 points per game (2nd). But despite their strong overall numbers, they have been vulnerable on the glass, sitting just 16th in defensive rebounds per game.
Yet, the Nuggets have been excellent at forcing turnovers, averaging 13.8 per game, placing them 1st in the NBA. For the season, they have allowed teams to hit 34.0% of their three-point shots and 44.8% of their overall shots from the field.
Today's NBA Betting Pick - Heat vs. Nuggets
The Nuggets currently have the leg up in this year's season series against the Heat. Across three games, the Nuggets have a record of 3-0. In the last head-to-head matchup, the Nuggets were favored by 9.0 points. Even though they won straight up by a score of 104-93, they did not cover the spread. The combined 197 points failed to exceed the over/under line of 219.0.
In the Heat's previous five games as the favorite, they have a straight up record of 2-3 while going 3-2 against the spread. Across their last three road games, they are 1-2 ATS and 1-2 straight up. Their previous ten games have an over/under mark of 4-6 with an average of 215 points per contest.
Across Denver's last five games at home, they have an ATS mark of 3-2 while going 3-2 straight-up. As the favorite, the Nuggets are 3-0 straight up on an average scoring differential of 13 points per game. This has led to an ATS mark of 1-2. Their previous ten games have ended in an average of 230 points per game and an over/under mark of 4-6.
Recommended ATS Betting Pick: DEN -8.5
Recommended OU Betting Pick: Under 216.0
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