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Welcome RotoBallers to our betting picks for the Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets, another article in our weekly series of free NBA betting picks for every game on the schedule. This free NBA betting breakdown article is for Monday, June 12th.
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Today's Betting Overview - Heat @ Nuggets
The Heat take on the Nuggets on Monday, June 12th at Ball Arena, Denver. RotoBaller provides free handicapping picks and odds for all NBA games throughout the 2022-2023 season.
- Matchup: Miami Heat (44-38) vs. Denver Nuggets (53-29)
- Date: Monday, June 12th
- Time: 8:30 PM ET
- Venue: Ball Arena
Today's NBA Sportsbook Odds - Heat @ Nuggets
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Heat & Nuggets Key Injuries
Heat
- Victor Oladipo (Out) Knee
- Tyler Herro (Out) Hand
Nuggets
- NONE
Miami Heat - NBA Betting Analysis
The Heat enter today's game having lost two straight, including a 108-95 loss to the Nuggets. Jimmy Butler led the team in scoring with 25 points on 52.9% shooting. Going into the game, oddsmakers had Miami as the 3 point underdog, resulting in an ATS loss for the team.
The Heat have failed to cover the spread in two straight games and have an overall ATS record of 46-58.
Not only has the Heat's offense been up and down at 109.5 points per game. But they have struggled of late, averaging just 99 points per contest over their last five games. So far this season, the Heat are averaging 96.2 possessions per game. In terms of three-point shooting, Miami has found success when stepping beyond the arc, ranking 5th in three-point shooting percentage.
This season, the Heat have allowed an average of 105.6 points per game, good for 2nd in the league. In terms of three-point shooting, opponents have knocked down 34.0% of their looks from beyond the arc (14th) and 44.8% of their overall field goal attempts. Miami's overall defensive numbers have been good despite the units struggles on the glass, sitting just 16th in defensive rebounds per game. The Heat are also a below average group in forced turnovers, at just 12.8 per game.
Denver Nuggets - NBA Betting Analysis
After taking down the Heat by a score of 108-95, the Nuggets are riding a two game win streak. Aaron Gordon led the way in scoring with 27 points. Not only did Denver win the game, but they also covered the spread as 3-point favorites.
The Nuggets have a two game win streak against the spread and have an overall ATS mark of 56-44.
Currently, the Nuggets are ranked 15th among all NBA teams with an average of 115.8 points per game. Denver's three-point shooting numbers have been impressive this year, ranking 3rd in the NBA with a shooting percentage of 37.9%. However, they are below average in pace, at 97.9 possessions per game, which is just 30th. Their current field goal percentage of 50.4% is 1st in the league.
This season, Denver has put together a strong defensive unit, allowing just 105.6 points per game (2nd). But despite their strong overall numbers, they have been vulnerable on the glass, sitting just 16th in defensive rebounds per game. Yet, the Nuggets have been excellent at forcing turnovers, averaging 13.8 per game, placing them 1st in the NBA. For the season, they have allowed teams to hit 34.0% of their three-point shots and 44.8% of their overall shots from the field.
Today's NBA Betting Pick - Heat vs. Nuggets
The Nuggets currently have the leg up in this year's season series against the Heat. Across six games, the Nuggets have a record of 5-1. In the last head-to-head matchup, the Nuggets were favored by 3.0 points. Even though they won straight up by a score of 108-95, they did not cover the spread. The combined 203 points failed to exceed the over/under line of 211.5.
In the Heat's previous five games as the favorite, they have a straight up record of 2-3 while going 2-3 against the spread. Across their last three road games, they are 2-1 ATS and 2-1 straight up. Their previous ten games have an over/under mark of 3-7 with an average of 210 points per contest.
Across Denver's last five games at home, they have an ATS mark of 5-0 while going 5-0 straight-up. As the favorite, the Nuggets are 2-1 straight up on an average scoring differential of 13 points per game. This has led to an ATS mark of 2-1. Their previous ten games have ended in an average of 224 points per game and an over/under mark of 3-7.
Recommended ATS Betting Pick: MIA +9
Recommended OU Betting Pick: Under 208.5
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