RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Add in 12-Team Leagues
ROSTERED IN: 47% of leagues
ANALYSIS: Through eight starts this year, New York Yankees starting pitcher Jameson Taillon has made it past the fifth inning just once. He's allowed at least four earned runs in exactly half his starts, including his most recent one on Tuesday, when he allowed six hits and four earned runs over 4 1/3 against the Texas Rangers.
Taillon's season-long 5.73 ERA will initially scare you off of him, but when you start digging deeper, you'll find many reasons to believe better times are ahead. Taillon has an xERA of 3.57. It's nearly identical to his last full MLB season in 2018 (3.47 xERA), when he won 14 games and posted a 3.20 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. This year, he's been generating strikeouts at a career-best clip. His 28.7% strikeout rate in 2021 is substantially higher than his 2018 clip (22.8%). Much of that increase is thanks to the effectiveness of his primary pitch, his four-seamer, which has generated a 33% whiff rate, up from 24.3% in 2018.
Where he's been killed this year is with the long ball. He's allowing 2.15 HR/9, up from 0.94 HR/9 in 2018. His HR/FB% is also up from 11.7% in 2018 to 18.4% this year.
Taillon's move from the pitcher-friendly PNC Park to the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium can justify some of this home run increase, but certainly not all of it. Taillon is showing a lot to like in his peripheral numbers. He's shown a great resemblance to his 2018 form and that 2018 Taillon was a top-30 must-start pitcher. 2021 Taillon should be rostered in all leagues of 12 teams or deeper as there's a strong chance he starts to deliver on his expected stats soon. If he continues to disappoint, he can be dropped.
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