BALLER MOVE: Target as MI in late rounds
ANALYSIS: Let me preface the points of my article with this - make no mistake, Jacob Lamb is a DEEP sleeper. So deep that at this point, he may only be worth a look in National League only formats, and even in those, he may not have any value in the first half of the season. Heading into the off-season last Fall, I thought there was a pretty good chance Lamb would get a crack at the starting third base job in Arizona, but that was before GM Dave Stewart landed highly sought-after Cuban prospect Yasmany Tomas.
So, at this point, Lamb's opportunity to showcase some of his light-tower tower power may only come due to an injury, or better yet, Tomas not being able to stick at third. We are probably a few weeks away from any definite lineups being announced, but word out of Diamondbacks camp is that Tomas has been less than impressive at third base and management there is experimenting with him in the outfield. There is hope!
As for Lamb's makeup, the 24 year old, left-handed hitter grades as a 60/60 in the power department with a good enough glove to stick at third base at the major league level. While he is probably two seasons away from doing considerable damage in the home run department at the major league level, if given enough at-bats, Lamb may be able to knock somewhere in the range of 12-18 home runs.
Playing half of his games at Chase Field can't hurt either, as it's a relatively average distance to the porch in right field - 334 feet to be exact - and Chase ranks as one of the most home run friendly parks in the league. According to ESPN, it was the seventh friendliest home run park in 2014, averaging 1.19 per game. Most of Lamb's power is pull power, so he should benefit from games at home, though he's got the ability to leave the yard in dead center, too. Interestingly, he's not just a pull hitter. His spray chart is proof he has the ability to hit line drives to the opposite field as well.
What is currently holding Lamb back from showcasing his power is his limited number of at-bats at the major league level and a little too much swing-and-miss in his game. Due to a rough start and not nearly enough at-bats to measure his lack of success - or project his 2015 season - Lamb never got a chance to flash his power. At the AAA level in 2014, he left the yard once every 31 bats or so, which is solid for a player still putting it all together. For a little reference, St. Louis' Matt Adams finished 57th in the MLB last year in that category, going 30.9 at bats (on average) between home runs. Despite his strike out rate, Lamb did display solid plate discipline, but with his contact rates leaving a little to be desired. If he can lay off pitches outside the zone or put the head of the bat on those pitches when he does take a hack, we might start to see what he's capable of.
Conclusion
If you are in need of some power and are willing to take a chance in an NL only league on a guy with high upside, Lamb could be your guy. Not that anyone should get too excited or even read too much into spring training comments on health, it was reported that Lamb arrived at camp in great shape and opened the eyes of new manager Chip Hale. Taking a chance on Lamb could really pay dividends, especially if your league doesn't penalize strikeouts.
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