RADIO
Another round of NFL action is upon us. With each passing week, we get more information regarding who’s who in the league. It’s still early in the season, but it’s important to take note of what’s happening around the league and make adjustments from our preseason priors.
We went 1-1 again last week for -.1 units. We had an easy cover that turned into a slight sweat with the Ravens defeating the Cowboys. However, Cincinnati’s defense failed it as it fell to 0-3 in a stunning loss to the Washington Commanders. We’ll keep treading water until we start getting hot. Week 4 is upon us, so let’s get to the action.
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New York Jets (-7.5) vs. Denver Broncos
Fresh off an upset victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Broncos travel to New York to face off with Aaron Rodgers and the Jets. While rookie quarterback Bo Nix enjoyed success against Tampa Bay’s secondary last week, this is a much different test.
New York ranks ninth in defensive passing DVOA and third in adjusted sack rate, per FTN Fantasy. Denver’s offensive line could have trouble protecting Nix and the rookie might find it difficult to consistently move the ball through the air. Denver’s best chance to move the ball offensively would be on the ground, but it has struggled mightily in that area.
Rodgers is playing at a high level and looks fully recovered from last year’s torn Achilles.
Garrett Wilson gets his first touchdown from Aaron Rodgers on a PERFECT throw 😤 pic.twitter.com/gDFF3JCQN2
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) September 20, 2024
He gets to face a Broncos defense that has played well but is now without leading tackler Alex Singleton. Expect a strong performance from the Jets on both sides of the ball as Denver struggles to move the ball consistently.
Pick: Jets -7.5 (-105) FanDuel Sportsbook
Risk 1.05 Units to Win 1 Unit
Indianapolis Colts (+1.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
This is a true strength-on-strength matchup. Indianapolis ranks fourth in offensive rushing DVOA and 11th in rushing yards per game while Pittsburgh ranks fifth in defensive rush DVOA and second in rushing yards allowed per game.
The difference in this game will be the Colts' ability to stop Pittsburgh's ground attack. The Colts run defense has been terrible through three weeks, and it is allowing 179 rushing yards per game. That is bad news considering they face a Steelers offense that is built around running the football.
Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson has struggled to begin the season. He’s tied for second in the league in turnovers, and this doesn’t feel like the game where he turns things around. The Steelers are tied for sixth in the league in takeaways, and they should get a few more this weekend against Richardson.
The Anthony Richardson experience is either the best throw you’ve ever seen or the worst
— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) September 22, 2024
Steelers quarterback Justin Fields hasn’t been spectacular, but he’s playing winning football and taking care of the ball. That should be the difference in this game.
This line is right on the money, but right now, Pittsburgh is the better team. Expect the Steelers to win another low-scoring, defensive slog, and improve to 4-0.
Pick: Steelers Moneyline (-120) FanDuel Sportsbook
Risk: 1.2 Units to Win 1 Unit
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