Fantasy Football Breakouts, Busts, and Locks - New England Patriots 2023 Outlook

The New England Patriots have always been a frustrating team to analyze from a fantasy football perspective. This was true even when the team was at the peak of its dynasty. Head coach Bill Belichick's commitment to spreading the ball around and utilizing a diverse group of skill players made it relatively difficult to predict most Patriots players' week-by-week fantasy value.

Heading into 2023, the Patriots certainly aren't the dynasty they once were, but a sense of timidness around the team's fantasy outlook remains intact. New England's offense finished with a -10.2 percent weighted DVOA on offense last season, good for 27th in the NFL and only enough to muster an 8-9 record.

With that said, the Patriots took the offense out of Matt Patricia's hands this past offseason and hired a real offensive coordinator in Bill O'Brien. Perhaps O'Brien's return to Foxborough, Massachusetts, could be just what the doctor ordered for the Patriots and their weapons.

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Fantasy Football Breakout: JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR)

The Patriots let Jakobi Meyers walk this past offseason, instead opting to sign Smith-Schuster in free agency. The 26-year-old spent last season in Kansas City, leading the Chiefs' wide receiver room with 78 catches for 933 yards and three touchdowns. These weren't spectacular marks by any means, but they were refreshing nonetheless after he caught just 15 passes through five games the year prior.

Smith-Schuster was used in a slightly unconventional role last season, operating behind Travis Kelce and occasionally losing reps to some of the depth receivers, too. That won't be the case in New England. Smith-Schuster is the clear-cut number-one receiver and won't have to worry about playing second-fiddle to a wideout or tight end.

In 2022, Smith-Schuster logged 454 yards after the catch (11th-best in NFL) and averaged a solid 1.94 yards of separation (28th). He also won 43.3 percent of his routes versus man coverage and finished the year with an impressive +64.8 EPA.

These stats suggest that Smith-Schuster can have a big season as long as Mac Jones and the offense take a step up from last year. The unit doesn't need to be elite and Jones doesn't need to be a Pro Bowler; just an upgrade will do. Expect big things from Smith-Schuster in 2023.

Fantasy Football Bust: Hunter Henry (TE)

Let's be clear: there is optimism that Bill O'Brien can maximize production from all of New England's tight ends, especially in the red zone. However, the team brought in Mike Gesicki via free agency, showing a clear commitment to upgrading the position. Although this isn't exactly a knock on Henry, it can't be ignored that he played in 17 games but managed just 509 yards and two touchdowns.

Gesicki has an extra inch of height on Henry, which might not seem like a lot but will come into play when Mac Jones needs to find a tall target in the end zone. The former Dolphin also scored three more touchdowns than Henry last year despite having fewer opportunities and more tumultuous quarterback play.

This isn't a "do not draft" Henry warning. Heck, as the Patriots' incumbent starter, he might still have more fantasy allure than Gesicki if they had the same ADP. The hype about Henry being a fringe top-12 fantasy tight end is likely misaligned as the Patriots deploy a new-look unit with a fresh slate of weapons. Avoid him at his current cost.

Fantasy Football Lock: Rhamondre Stevenson (RB)

AUGUST 14 UPDATE: New England has signed veteran running back Ezekiel Elliott to a one-year deal. He is expected to receive a significant workload and cut into Stevenson's volume, especially in short-yardage and change-of-pace situations. Stevenson should retain the bulk of pass-catching work.

The Patriots have stumbled across a star in Stevenson, who demonstrated ferocious running, impressive receiving skills, and invaluable contributions in pass protection last year. All three of these skills (especially the pass protection factor) are important parts of a Belichick offense and will continue to earn Stevenson the lion's share of backfield reps in 2023.

With Damien Harris departed, Bill Belichick brought in free agents Ezekiel Elliott and Leonard Fournette for visits. However, both backs left Foxobrough without deals, a glaring sign that neither player is likely to be signed. This serves as confirmation that the backfield belongs to Stevenson.

When all was said and done, Stevenson finished last season with 1,461 scrimmage yards and six touchdowns. Most notably, he caught a whopping 67 passes over his final 11 games, including an enormous Week 12 clash with the Vikings in which he notched 10 receptions. As the 2023 campaign begins, he should pick up right where he left off, providing managers with steady RB2 contributions and RB1 upside (especially in PPR leagues).

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