RADIO
We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game along with a score prediction and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
We're back to EPL action after a week off for the FA Cup and have a double matchweek for two teams. We're also mixing things up a bit moving forward. Instead of picking a player to watch for every game, we will be dedicating a whole section to FPL with the best options, discount stars and who to avoid. There will also be a stronger FPL element in each game preview.
We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly preview and betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions, @wagmifantasy, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
2022-23 EPL Betting Picks
- Match results: 92-107
- Total picks: 86-106-9
- Parlays: 11-24
- ROI: 102.58% (+4.60 units)
Friday, February 03rd, 2023
Fulham (+472) at Chelsea (-159) 03:00 pm ET
Score prediction: Chelsea 1 - 0 Fulham
Chelsea is a hard team to gauge right now given their huge investment in new players and how long it will take for them to bed in and settle. They have kept back-to-back clean sheets in the league for the first time in 12 games. In six games since the World Cup, they've scored five and conceded four and haven't scored more than two in a game since beating Bournemouth 2-0 six games ago.
In six games since the World Cup, Fulham has only conceded four goals and no team has scored more than once against them. But, they enter the fixture without scoring in back-to-back EPL games for the first time this season.
Fulham won the reverse fixture 2-1 just three weeks ago but it was level at 1-1 until Chelsea had debutant Joao Felix sent off. This will be another tight affair and likely won by the odd goal. It could boil down to which of Chelsea's new signings can shine but they are more settled defensively at least. No one in an attacking sense really stands out as a good FPL play, but I'd be fine with playing a Chelsea defender.
Betting pick: Total goals - Under 2.5 (-100) 0.5 units
Expect a tight game with goals at a premium. If it wasn't for Felix's red card in the reverse fixture, a 1-1 draw was likely and although I wouldn't be surprised with any of the three outcomes, a low-scoring game is probable.
Saturday, February 04th, 2023
Arsenal (-232) at Everton (+736) 07:30 am ET
Score prediction: Everton 1 - 2 Arsenal
Everton parted ways with Frank Lampard and appointed Sean Dyche as their new manager earlier this week. He's certainly got a tough job trying to keep Everton in the Premier League but his experience with Burnley and getting the most out of his players could be key. It's hard to predict how they will perform over the next couple of games given the change in manager.
Arsenal's 3-2 win in their last EPL game at home to Manchester United restored their five-point lead at the top of the table and made it 13 consecutive EPL games without defeat. They've scored in all ten away league games this season and found the net more than once in each of their last three road trips.
Before the sacking of Lampard, I had this game pegged as a big away win but don't be surprised to see Everton cause Arsenal some problems in a similar way that Burnley used to do under Sean Dyche. This is a different Arsenal side though and any of their front four are solid plays in FPL with them combining for 26 goals and 14 assists in the league so far.
Betting pick: Single-game parlay – Arsenal over 1.5 total goals, Everton under 1.5 total goals and a goal in each half (+130) 0.5 units
As we've covered, Arsenal has scored two or more in each of their last three away games and in six of their ten this season. Everton has failed to score more than one in any of their last eight EPL games. Arsenal has been getting off to hot starts and an early goal wouldn't surprise with more coming in the second half.
Crystal Palace (+772) at Manchester United (-241) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Manchester United 2 - 0 Crystal Palace
Manchester United has scored in 11 straight EPL games and reached the EFL Cup final following their victory over Nottingham Forest in midweek. They have the joint-best home defensive record in the league, conceding just five goals in nine home games.
Palace has struggled for goals since the World Cup, with just three in six games. One of which was against United (an injury-time screamer direct from a free-kick) and two came against Bournemouth, the league's leakiest defense this season. Palace has scored just seven goals in nine away games in total.
There's no Palace player I'm considering in FPL this week given their struggles to score goals and how unlikely it is that they manage to keep a clean sheet. All United players are options this week, especially with their double gameweek (more on that later).
Betting pick: To win to nil – Manchester United (+122) 0.75 units
Palace has failed to score in five of their last seven away EPL games while United has kept a clean sheet in five of their last six home games (Manchester City being the only team to have scored in that span).
Bournemouth (+877) at Brighton (-275) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Brighton 3 - 1 Bournemouth
Brighton is arguably the most fun team to watch in the league right now. Since the World Cup, scoring 14 goals and conceding eight in just five games. Three of their last four home EPL games have been against Arsenal, Liverpool, and Chelsea but they still scored nine goals in those contests.
Bournemouth commenced the post-World Cup restart by losing all four games and failing to score a single goal. A 1-1 draw against Nottingham Forest last time out ended both of those streaks but the league's worst defense has yet to keep a clean sheet on the road and their opponents have scored two or more in nine of those ten matches.
It's hard to be confident in any Bournemouth player offering a positive points return but Brighton could provide a points haul for your FPL teams. Alexis Mac Allister's suspension leaves the door open for someone but the usual attacking midfielders are all options. Don't sleep on Brighton's defenders either as even though a clean sheet might not be in play, Bournemouth has conceded more set-piece goals than any other team and Brighton's full-backs are not shy in getting forward either.
Betting pick: Both teams to score/Winner – Yes and Brighton (+237) 0.75 units
The odds are too appealing to not play. Brighton will surely score at least a couple and while Bournemouth might not find the net, Brighton's style will offer up a couple of chances to the visitors and the odds are too appetizing to turn down.
Southampton (+335) at Brentford (-111) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Brentford 2 - 0 Southampton
Only four teams have scored more home goals than Brentford this season (20) and they come into this game unbeaten in their last eight EPL games. They failed to score last time out for the first time during their unbeaten run and the previous times they failed to score, they followed it up with another blank.
Southampton remained rooted to the foot of the table after their 1-0 loss against Aston Villa last time out. Their victory against Everton the previous time out looks like being an outlier rather than starting a revival although. That win is also the only time in their last 15 games they've scored more than once.
As bad as Southampton is, James Ward-Prowse is still a viable play in FPL given his ability from set-pieces and long-range. But without him conjuring up something special, it's hard seeing how they score, making Brentford's defenders a sneaky good option this week.
Betting pick: Single-game parlay – Brentford under 6.5 corners and Southampton under 4.5 corners (+130) 0.75 units
Brentford hasn't taken more than six corners in any of their last eight home EPL games while Southampton hasn't taken more than four in any of their last seven away EPL games. Expect those trends to continue.
Liverpool (-107) at Wolves (+301) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Wolves 1 - 1 Liverpool
Wolves find themselves out of the relegation zone on goal difference and have looked better since appointing Julen Lopetegui as their Head Coach. They still don't score enough goals, with just four in their five games since the World Cup, but they have brought in some experienced attacking players to try and correct that.
Liverpool's season is set to just be written off. Brighton ended their FA Cup hopes last week while their draw at home to Chelsea the week before leaves them winless in their last three EPL games. They can't seem to get both ends of the pitch working at the same time with any level of consistency.
Normally, stacking defenders against the Wolves is a good play but it's hard to trust any Liverpool player. Their full-backs might be an option but not one I'd be confident in going with. While Wolves don't concede many, they have only one clean sheet in their last five games since the World Cup leaving no one of much appeal in FPL.
Betting pick: Most cards – Liverpool (+150) 0.5 units
Wolves' last four games have seen a total of 13 yellow cards (3.25 per game average) with Wolves players being shown six and their opponents seven. Liverpool's last three games have seen them awarded three bookings in each game (and their opponents just one). As Liverpool looks to try and get out of this recent rut, there's a chance of being a bit too eager in some challenges and if Wolves do try to play on the counter, it's easy to see a Liverpool player or two make a cynical challenge so the visitors getting more cards is a decent chance.
Leicester City (+291) at Aston Villa (+100) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2 - 1 Leicester City
Villa's revival under Unai Emery continues as they now find themselves just a point away from the top half of the table having picked up ten points from their last four games. They've also scored in seven consecutive EPL games, the first time they've done that since they achieved promotion back in 2019.
Leicester still remains in relegation danger despite picking up an admirable point against Brighton a fortnight ago. That ended a run of four straight losses since the league restarted and crucially, James Maddison is back from his injury and he'll be needed to reignite Leicester's campaign.
Leicester has conceded ten goals in their five games since the World Cup which makes Villa's attacking players good options in FPL. Leicester's strikers have done very little this season but their attacking midfielders have goals and assists in them. I don't see anyone on either team bagging a big personal points haul but there is some appeal in both sets of forward players.
Betting pick: Total goals range – 2-3 (+118) 1 unit
Five of Leicester's last six away games have seen a total of two or three goals scored. That's been the case in five of Villa's ten home games this season and in each of their last two home games.
West Ham United (+498) at Newcastle United (-150) 12:30 pm ET
Score prediction: Newcastle United 1 - 0 West Ham United
Newcastle's defense has been the key to their success this season with five consecutive clean sheets at home and they have yet to concede a goal since the World Cup (five games). The issue they've had is scoring goals as three of those five goals ended 0-0.
West Ham picked up a massive three points against Everton last time out which ended a seven-game winless streak. No one in the bottom half of the table has conceded fewer than West Ham (25) but their 17 goals scored this season is the joint third fewest.
The biggest FPL appeal in this game is the defenses, Newcastle's especially. I'd be looking to stack at least two from this game and both being Newcastle players makes the most sense. Both teams' attacking struggles make it hard to trust any attacking player but there is one I'll cover in the FPL section.
Betting pick: Single-game parlay – Newcastle under 1.5 goals and West Ham under 1.5 goals (+130) 0.5 units
Given I expect a low-scoring game with both teams' defenses being their strength and neither team finding the net frequently of late, neither team scoring more than one seems like a reasonable play.
Sunday, February 05th, 2023
Leeds United (+176) at Nottingham Forest (+167) 07:30 am ET
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1 - 1 Leeds United
Forest has had a recent revival, going unbeaten in their last four games (two wins and two draws) and scoring in four consecutive games, their longest run of the season. They've been decent at home all campaign too, where they've picked up 15 of their 21 points. They've faced six teams currently in the bottom half of the table at home and lost just once.
Leeds' winless streak now stands at six games, although they've only lost one of their last four. After scoring 11 goals in their four games just prior to the World Cup, they've scored just four in five games since and they need to address that if they are to avoid another relegation scrap.
Leeds having a double gameweek has some value in FPL but neither fixture is particularly great and the one Leeds player I would consider, Wilfried Gnonto, has much more DFS appeal than in FPL. The same can be said for Forest's Morgan Gibbs-White, although he is still a solid FPL option as a discounted midfielder when Forest plays at home.
Betting pick: Moneyline – Draw (+250) 0.75 units
There's little to choose between these teams right now and Forest's ten home game this season has seen eight of them drawn or won by just one goal. It's a similar story for Leeds as even though they only have five points away from home, seven of those nine games have been drawn or won by one goal.
Manchester City (-127) at Tottenham (+339) 07:30 am ET
Score prediction: Tottenham 2 - 2 Manchester City
You might think that Tottenham has turned the corner on their season, with an EPL win followed up by an FA Cup win against lower league opposition and keeping a clean sheet in both. They did the same thing at the beginning of January and then lost their next two EPL games (to Arsenal and Manchester City) so it's difficult to back them moving forward until we see more consistency.
Although City's form hasn't been great, they have still won four of their six EPL games since the World Cup with the only defeat coming in controversial fashion against Manchester United. After a run of scoring one goal in three consecutive games, they've scored seven in their last two EPL games, including four against Sunday's opponents.
The reverse fixture less than three weeks ago gave us a glimpse of what we can expect with goals galore. I don't foresee there being six goals again but certainly see the attacking players on both sides having chances to pick up a solid points haul, with any of their attacking players making good a option in FPL this week.
Betting pick: To win either half – Tottenham (+145) 0.5 units
Two and a half weeks ago, Tottenham scored two late first-half goals to stun City and lead at the interval. They ultimately lost 4-2, but they have actually won their last three home EPL games against City.
Wednesday, February 08th, 2023
Leeds United (+518) at Manchester United (-221) 03:00 pm ET
Score prediction: Manchester United 2 - 0 Leeds United
Manchester United had a comfortable 2-0 lead at home to Crystal Palace on Saturday until the sending off of Casemiro gave the visitors a route back and although they did half the deficit, Manchester United held on to three points. Casemiro's suspension for this game could be an important factor.
Leeds' lack of goals is becoming a major problem with just four goals in six games since the World Cup and back-to-back blanks after their 1-0 defeat to Nottingham Forest on Sunday. In four of those six games, Leeds has also registered an expected goals total (xGA) below one. They also have just one away win this season.
Betting pick: Single-game parlay - Marcus Rashford to score, Manchester United over 1.5 goals, Manchester United under 3.5 goals and Leeds United under 1.5 goals (+320) 0.75 units
With a standalone game in midweek, we'll take the single-game parlay option at higher odds. It may look convoluted but this is basically a prediction that Manchester United will win by a scoreline of 2-0, 2-1, 3-0 or 3-1 with Rashford scoring a goal. Given he's found the net in five consecutive home EPL games and scored in six of his last seven, he's a likely source to score again.
Parlay
Both teams to score - Wolves/Liverpool, Aston Villa/Leicester City, Nottingham Forest/Leeds United, and Tottenham/Manchester City (+819) 1.5 units
Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Plays & Picks
This is our new weekly section that will look at specific players (and teams) with regard to FPL. We'll look at the best defenses to stack, low-rostered players set to offer big returns, high-rostered dud plays, someone to keep an eye on, and the best captain choices for this week.
Stack the D
I think I've covered Manchester United enough as a great option for defenders in FPL but Luke Shaw is the best pick given the possible attacking threat he also possesses. That is also true for Newcastle United's Kieran Trippier, this season's highest-scoring defender and on a team that I'm also stacking. Partnering Fabian Schär, Dan Burn and/or Sven Botman along with Trippier looks set to keep banking big points.
Unloved nuggets
There are a couple of players currently less than 2.0% rostered who I like and the first is Aston Villa defender Alex Moreno (0.1% rostered). The January acquisition looks set to deputize for injured Lucas Digne who was one of La Liga's most creative defenders before the move. Last week, Brighton left-back Pervis Estupiñán picked up two assists against Leicester City and I wouldn't be surprised if Moreno finds himself with one this week.
Mathias Jensen (1.2% rostered) has one goal, one assist, and two clean sheets in his last three games from midfield. He leads Brentford in shot-creating actions (55), predominantly as the team's primary set-piece taker. He faces a Southampton side that has conceded the third most goals from set-pieces (nine) this season.
Avoid the trap
Every week I'll be picking someone who is on more than 20.0% of teams and set to bust. This week, Miguel Almirón (37.1% rostered) is set to be that guy. He had a sensational run of form prior to the World Cup, with seven goals and one assist in the eight games before the break. He scored in Newcastle's first game post-World Cup but since then, has four consecutive blanks.
He's only managed one shot on target during this barren spell and West Ham will likely set up defensively and offer little space for Almirón to operate in. With just one goal in their last four EPL games, Newcastle needs to find a way to break down teams and although he picked up an assist in their midweek EFL tie, Almirón is still on more teams than his form justifies.
One for the watchlist
While I'm not playing him this week, West Ham United's Jarrod Bowen is starting to show signs of life after a disappointing campaign. One of the most popular FPL midfielders to begin the season, Bowen is currently on just 2.5% of teams and had just two goals and one assist prior to the World Cup.
Since then, he's scored twice and has two assists (five games), with both goals coming against Everton in his last EPL appearance. Bowen also scored in West Ham's FA Cup win at Derby County on Monday and while an away game at Newcastle doesn't appeal, he has an appealing stretch of fixtures coming up.
Lock of the week
My favorite picks to return double-digit points this week are Bruno Fernandes and Marcus Rashford. Obviously, with two games on their slate this week, they are the most obvious plays and I guarantee they will both be involved in at least one goal while also picking up a nice little clean sheet bonus on the way.
They are almost certain to start both games and are in excellent form since the World Cup. Rashford has five goals and one assist while Fernandes has two goals and three assists in the six games. If you still have your Triple Captain available, this week might be the best time to pull the trigger on either of these two.
Someone who only has one game this week so I'm not captaining but would 100% start is Brighton's Kaoru Mitoma. In his last four EPL games, Mitoma has three goals and one assist and he scored the winner against Liverpool in the FA Cup last weekend. Between Brighton's form and their opponents, Mitoma would be a solid play any week. Being in the form of his life is just gravy and I've no doubt he's involved in a goal this weekend.
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!
