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We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game along with a score prediction and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
For the second straight matchweek, the first game kicks off less than 24 hours after the previous week's final game ends. The postponed fixtures are starting to be played adding to some bonus games, of which we have two this week. Last matchweek, we picked eight winners from the ten games plus a parlay which has put us into profit on the season so here's hoping that run continues.
We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly preview and betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions, @wagmifantasy, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
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2022-23 EPL Betting Picks
- Match results: 82-95
- Total picks: 77-93-9
- Parlays: 9-23
- ROI: 101.37% (+2.15 units)
Friday, January 13th, 2023
Leeds United (+307) at Aston Villa (-102) 3:00 pm ET
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2 - 1 Leeds United
Villa has four points from their three games since the World Cup and has shown significant signs of improvement since Unai Emery took charge. After picking up nine points in their first 11 games of the season, since Steven Gerrard was replaced as manager, Villa has picked up 13 points from their last seven games.
Leeds made it back-to-back EPL draws last week and then drew 1-1 with Championship side Cardiff City at the weekend in their FA Cup tie. They have picked up just five points on their travels (eight games) and are just two points outside the relegation zone.
Betting pick: Moneyline - Aston Villa (-102) 1 unit
Since Emery took over as Villa manager, he's been in charge of six games with five of them coming against sides currently in the top eight in the league standings. Villa won three of those games and their recent performances have been better than Leeds' so I'm fully expecting the home side to win.
Player to watch: Leon Bailey
Bailey missed an open goal in the 94th minute against Wolves last time out, which would have won them the game (and us our betting pick!). He was crestfallen at the full-time whistle so I'm expecting a bounce back from one of Villa's most improved players since their managerial change.
Saturday, January 14th, 2023
Manchester City (-121) at Manchester United (+341) 7:30 am ET
Score prediction: Manchester United 1 - 1 Manchester City
United goes into this weekend's derby on the back of four consecutive home league wins and five consecutive home clean sheets in the EPL. This will be their toughest challenge but they are in good form and should be much more confident than when they got completely demolished at City earlier in the season.
City hasn't quite clicked since the restart but still picked up seven points from their three games and they whomped United 6-3 in the reverse fixture earlier this season. After winning just two of their first five away EPL games this season, they've now won their last three although last week's 1-0 win at Chelsea is the only away win against a side in the top half of the table.
Betting pick: Total goals - Under 2.5 (+122) 0.5 units
City's 14 away goals this season is "only" the sixth most in the league and United's defense has been their strength lately. The four home goals conceded by United are the fewest in the league and they will probably set up to soak up the pressure and not play very open so I don't expect to see a high-scoring game on Saturday.
Player to watch: Casemiro
The Brazilian midfielder was brought in to solidify the middle of the pitch for United and has helped massively with their defensive improvements. But he's also chipped in with two goals and two assists in his 14 games (ten starts). His big-game experience could prove to be invaluable for United.
Liverpool (+112) at Brighton (+252) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Brighton 2 - 2 Liverpool
Brighton continues to be the team to watch if you want goals, with a total of 15 coming in their three games since the World Cup. Nine of those 15 have been scored by Brighton and new manager De Zerbi's reputation for attacking football continues to be on display.
Liverpool looked like they were kicking on since the break but was then brought back down to earth with a bump following their 3-1 defeat at Brentford. The signing of Cody Gakpo will help a squad dealing with numerous injuries but they've lacked some depth and quality in the middle of the pitch.
Betting pick: Single game parlay – Both teams to score, over 2.5 total goals and a goal in each half (+100) 1 unit
De Zerbi's first game in charge of Brighton was the reverse fixture which ended 3-3. Brighton's last seven EPL games have seen both teams score and at least three total goals while that has been the case for Liverpool's last six EPL games.
Player to watch: Kaoru Mitoma
This was originally Trossard but with him now out in the cold and a return not looking likely, we'll pivot to Mitoma. The Japanese international was something of a super sub at the World Cup but has started Brighton's last five EPL games, scoring three goals with one assist in that time.
Southampton (+239) at Everton (+127) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Everton 0 - 1 Southampton
Everton's owner has backed manager Frank Lampard publically this week but he remains on the hot seat following last week's 4-1 thrashing at home to Brighton. They've lost seven of their last ten EPL games and picked up just five points in that period, a run that has seen them slip into the relegation zone again.
Southampton is rooted to the table and comes into the weekend in the midst of a six-game losing streak in the league. They did reach the EFL Cup semi-final stage by beating Manchester City 2-0 on Wednesday but both sides had made changes to their preferred starting lineups so it's difficult to put much weight into that, although it should help restore some confidence for the league's bottom club.
Betting pick: Draw no bet - Southampton (+142) 0.5 units
This is a game that has 0-0 written all over it but Southampton's EFL Cup win might just provide them with enough momentum to carry them through this game and to three much-needed points. It's the type of game I'd just back the underdogs in and Everton being at home might not help as if they go a goal behind, the home fans might turn on the team and make things very difficult for them.
Player to watch: James Ward-Prowse
The league's best free-kick taker in over a decade has scored Southampton's only two goals since the restart and in a game that looks set to be tight and lacking much goalmouth action, a moment of magic from the Southampton captain might be what is needed.
Leicester City (+167) at Nottingham Forest (+179) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1 - 1 Leicester City
Forest's four points from their last two games have seen them climb out of the relegation zone and into 15th place. They are now unbeaten in their last five home EPL games, conceding just four goals in that run. They have only scored more than once at home three times this season (nine games).
Leicester has lost all three EPL games since the World Cup, scoring just once. They did beat Gillingham in the FA Cup at the weekend, although they are sat bottom of League 2 and then Leicester lost to Newcastle United in the EFL Cup on Tuesday.
Betting pick: Both teams' total goals - Under 1.5 (+135) 0.5 units
Leicester has desperately missed James Maddison and it's unclear when he will return. Leicester's two goals in five games in all competitions since the World Cup are telling. Four of Forest's five-game unbeaten run at home has seen neither team score more than once so I'm anticipating a tight match here.
Player to watch: Morgan Gibbs-White
Forest's record signing hasn't quite lived up to his price tag yet but does have two goals and two assists (15 games) while comfortably leading the team in shot-creating actions with 50 (second most is Neco Williams with 27). On a team that struggles to score goals, his creativity could be vital.
West Ham United (+178) at Wolves (+180) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Wolves 1 - 0 West Ham United
Julen Lopetegui's appointment is showing signs of paying off with four points from the three games since he became Wolves manager. The defeat was a 1-0 loss against Manchester United and after scoring eight goals in their first 15 EPL games this season, scoring three in their last three games is a significant improvement.
West Ham ended their five-game losing streak with a 2-2 draw at Leeds United last week but it's now just one win in their last nine EPL games. They have just one win in their nine away games this season with two draws and no win from their last seven away trips in the league.
Betting pick: Moneyline - Wolves (+180) 0.5 units
The draw at Leeds might have helped ignite West Ham into a run of good form but it's Wolves who have looked the better side since the restart and a win for the home team will leapfrog them above their opponents and likely move them out of the relegation zone. It could also see David Moyes being replaced as West Ham manager.
Player to watch: Daniel Podence
In the last three games, Podence has doubled his season's goal tally from two to four. He's been flourishing in the short time Lopetegui has been in charge and will want to maintain that form to help pull the Wolves away from the dropzone.
Bournemouth (+421) at Brentford (-146) 12:30 pm ET
Score prediction: Brentford 3 - 0 Bournemouth
Brentford has been in great form with seven points from their three games since the World Cup. They are now unbeaten in their last six league games and lost just once in nine. League leaders Arsenal are the only visitors to have beaten Brentford in the league this season.
Bournemouth has lost all three games following the restart and has found themselves lurking dangerously close to the relegation zone again. They are yet to score since the World Cup and conceded seven goals in the process.
Betting pick: Single-game parlay - Brentford over 1.5 goals, over 8.5 total corners & over 2.5 total cards (+260) 0.5 units
Brentford has scored two or more goals in five straight EPL games, while Bournemouth's 39 goals conceded this season is the most in the league. No team has conceded more corners than Bournemouth and despite these two playing out a goalless draw earlier in the season, that game had 15 corners and three yellow cards.
Player to watch: Ben Mee
I'm going with Mee as a value play this week. Brentford has scored the fourth-most goals from set-pieces, while Bournemouth has conceded the most. Ben Mee has a couple of goals already this season, and they caused Liverpool no end of issues from set-pieces last time out, especially from long throws.
Sunday, January 15th, 2023
Crystal Palace (+478) at Chelsea (-151) 9:00 am ET
Score prediction: Chelsea 1 - 0 Crystal Palace
Chelsea's form has been horrid and they find themselves in tenth place coming into this game. Their 2-0 win against Bournemouth on December 27th is their only win from their last eight league games. The owner has backed Graham Potter but Chelsea's Head Coach will be feeling the pressure.
Palace has suffered two uncharacteristic heavy defeats since the restart, losing 3-0 and 4-0 on either side of a 2-0 win against Bournemouth. They are generally much more solid defensively than they have shown recently and I expect them to get back to tightening things up at the back
Betting pick: Total goals - Under 2.5 (-116) 0.75 units
Palace has failed to score in three of their last four EPL games and Chelsea has failed to score in three of their last six. The odds are -118 for only one or neither team scoring but I struggle to see either side winning 3-0 or better so we'll plump for under 2.5 total goals. I like the +137 odds for under 2.5 total goals and both teams not scoring but I can see this game ending 1-1 so will lean away from that play.
Player to watch: Mason Mount
Originally, I picked Raheem Sterling but his injury is set to keep him sidelined for a while so with new signing Joao Felix suspended after his red card on debut, Chelsea will need to find a spark from somewhere and Mount is almost 'last-man standing' in a squad beset with injuries.
Fulham (+529) at Newcastle United (-183) 9:00 am ET
Score prediction: Newcastle United 2 - 1 Fulham
Newcastle is now unbeaten in their last 13 EPL games although they have drawn their last two games 0-0. One was a somewhat fortunate draw at league leaders Arsenal but they continue to show no defensive frailties with four consecutive clean sheets in the league and seven in their last nine games.
Fulham has won all three games since the restart and currently occupies seventh place in the league table. Their struggles have come against sides above them in the league with just one point coming in the six games against sides currently above them in the table.
Betting pick: Both teams to score - Yes (-121) 0.75 units
Newcastle won the reverse fixture 4-1 and while I anticipate they win this game, I doubt it'll be such a one-sided game. Especially given Fulham played over 80 minutes of that game with ten men. Newcastle's defense has been excellent but Fulham's attacking play has been impressive so I'll lean toward both sides finding the net.
Player to watch: Miguel Almirón
After scoring seven goals in seven games and emerging as one of the leading attackers in the league, Almirón has scored just once in his last four EPL games. He'll be keen to show the purple patch wasn't a fluke and he is capable of scoring consistently, something that has evaded him throughout his time at Newcastle.
Arsenal (+122) at Tottenham (+232) 11:30 am ET
Score prediction: Tottenham 1 - 1 Arsenal
Tottenham looks like they've turned a corner following their 4-0 win at Crystal Palace last time out. That was not only their first clean sheet in eight EPL games but the first time they hadn't conceded two or more in that span. It was also the first time they didn't concede the opening goal in the previous 11 games in all competitions.
Arsenal suffered a disappointing but hard-fought goalless draw at home to Newcastle last week although they will feel aggrieved not to have been awarded a clear-cut penalty in the second half. They will need to bounce back and show their resolve if they are to be serious title contenders.
Betting pick: A penalty to be taken - Yes (+163) 0.5 units
This is one derby game where form goes out the window and any scoreline is possible. But one consistent has been the number of penalties awarded in this fixture. There have been four penalties in the least six league meetings (three to Tottenham and one to Arsenal), although there is generally a case for them to have not been given with at least three of them somewhat soft.
The new direction for VAR to not interfere as much leaves the door open to yet another soft penalty to be awarded in the game. The referee appointed to this game is Craig Pawson who has awarded four penalties in ten EPL games this season, the second most of any referee.
Player to watch: Harry Kane
Kane has scored five goals in his last six EPL games against Arsenal, three of them being the aforementioned penalties. After his World Cup penalty miss, the script is almost written for him to score one against Tottenham's bitter rivals.
Wednesday, January 18th, 2023
Manchester United (+104) at Crystal Palace (+281) 3:00 pm ET
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1 - 2 Manchester United
Palace was edged out by Chelsea on Sunday, losing 1-0. They've now lost four of their last five EPL games, all without scoring. They're still far enough away from the relegation zone to not be looking over their shoulder, but they face Newcastle United and then Manchester United again next and they might find themselves dragged into trouble if they don't start picking up points.
Manchester United controversially beat neighbors Manchester City 2-1 on Saturday to move within a point of their rivals. In truth, they weren't really in the game until the last 15 minutes but they stunned their opponents with a late flurry and they've now won their last five EPL games.
Betting pick: Both teams to score - Yes (-118) 0.75 units
Palace only has one home clean sheet this season (to bottom of the table Southampton). United's only away clean sheet in their last six came against Wolves, the league's lowest scorers. Palace has struggled in front of goal but I expect them to really come out flying and although I expect the points to go back up north, this could be a competitive game.
Player to watch: Marcus Rashford
Rashford was the focal point in United's controversial equalizer on Saturday but then popped up with the winning goal and has now scored in all four EPL games since the World Cup. I wouldn't be at all surprised if he made it five in five on Wednesday.
Thursday, January 19th, 2023
Tottenham (+624) at Manchester City (-283) 3:00 pm ET
Score prediction: Manchester City 2 - 2 Tottenham
Manchester City finds themselves eight points behind leaders Arsenal following their loss on Saturday. They now have just seven points from their last five EPL games and lost back-to-back games in all competitions for the first time this season.
Tottenham lost the North London Derby to Arsenal 2-0 on Sunday and Head Coach Antonio Conte is coming under increasing pressure with just ten points from their last nine games and now slipping away from the Champions League qualification places.
Betting pick: Handicap - Tottenham +1.5 (-115) 0.75 units
This is a tough one to call as neither team's form is particularly good but City is by far the better team if they can get things going. That being said, they tend to struggle against Tottenham. Not only have they lost their last two EPL games against them, but they've only beaten them once in their last six league meetings.
Player to watch: Erling Haaland
For the first time this season, Haaland has failed to score in back-to-back EPL games. He had little to no service on Saturday but the most rostered player in FPL has made a living scoring goals out of nothing and if City is to avoid falling away from top spot, they will need Haaland to start scoring again.
Parlays
Over 1.5 total goals – Aston Villa/Leeds United, Wolves/West Ham United, Nottingham Forest/Leicester City & Brentford/Bournemouth (+165) 2.5 units
Double chance – Manchester United to win or draw (versus Manchester City), Nottingham Forest to win or draw, and Brighton to win or draw (+468) 1 unit
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!
