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Welcome RotoBallers to our betting picks for the Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics, another article in our weekly series of free NBA betting picks for every game on the schedule. This free NBA betting breakdown article is for Monday, May 29th.
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Today's Betting Overview - Heat @ Celtics
The Heat take on the Celtics on Monday, May 29th at TD Garden, Boston. RotoBaller provides free handicapping picks and odds for all NBA games throughout the 2022-2023 season.
- Matchup: Miami Heat (44-38) vs. Boston Celtics (57-25)
- Date: Monday, May 29th
- Time: 8:30 PM ET
- Venue: TD Garden
Today's NBA Sportsbook Odds - Heat @ Celtics
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Heat & Celtics Key Injuries
Heat
- Victor Oladipo (Out) Knee
- Gabe Vincent (Questionable) Ankle
- Tyler Herro (Out) Hand
Celtics
- Danilo Gallinari (Out) Knee
- Malcolm Brogdon (Questionable) Forearm
Miami Heat - NBA Betting Analysis
The Heat enter today's game having lost three straight, including a 104-103 loss to the Celtics. Jimmy Butler led the team in scoring with 24 points on 23.8% shooting. Despite the straight up loss, Miami covered the spread as they were 2.5 point underdogs going into the game.
Now, the Heat's overall record sits at 44-38, placing them 8th in the Eastern Conference. The team's current record at home is 27-14 and 17-24 on the road. Miami's record against the spread is below .500 at 44-55.
The Heat come into today's game ranked just 37th in scoring at 109.5 points per contest. Across their last five games, the unit is averaging 107 points per game. So far this season, the Heat are ranked 39th in pace at 96.2 possessions per game. In terms of three-point shooting, Miami has found success when stepping beyond the arc, ranking 5th in three-point shooting percentage. The team's overall field goal percentage of 46.0% is 30th in the NBA.
This season, the Heat have allowed an average of 105.6 points per game, good for 2nd in the league. In terms of three-point shooting, opponents have knocked down 34.0% of their looks from beyond the arc (16th) and 44.8% of their overall field goal attempts. Miami's overall defensive numbers have been good despite the units struggles on the glass, sitting just 16th in defensive rebounds per game. The Heat are also a below average group in forced turnovers, at just 12.8 per game.
Boston Celtics - NBA Betting Analysis
After taking down the Heat by a score of 104-103, the Celtics are riding a three game win streak. Jayson Tatum led the way in scoring with 31 points. Heading into their previous matchup against the Heat, the Celtics were favored by 2.5, giving them an ATS loss.
With the win, the team has moved to 57-25, placing them 2nd in the Eastern Conference. So far this season, they have gone 32-9 at home and 25-16 on the road. This season, Boston's ATS record sits at 54-45.
With an average of 117.9 points per game, the Celtics are ranked 6th in the NBA in scoring. Despite this, their recent performance has been below average, scoring just 107 points per game in their last five contests. Throughout the season, the Celtics have been among the top three-point shooting teams in the league, making 37.7% of their shots from beyond the arc (9th). Despite ranking 18th in pace with 99.3 possessions per game, their efficient three-point shooting has compensated. Their overall field goal percentage currently stands at 47.5% and is ranked 14th.
This season, Boston has put together a strong defensive unit, allowing just 105.6 points per game (2nd). But despite their strong overall numbers, they have been vulnerable on the glass, sitting just 16th in defensive rebounds per game. Yet, the Celtics have been excellent at forcing turnovers, averaging 12.7 per game, placing them 11th in the NBA. For the season, they have allowed teams to hit 34.0% of their three-point shots and 44.8% of their overall shots from the field.
Today's NBA Betting Pick - Heat vs. Celtics
Heading into the 10th meeting of the season between the Celtics and Heat, each team has five wins and will be looking to get the leg in the head-to-head series. In the last head-to-head matchup, the Celtics were favored by 2.5 points. With their 104-103 win, they also covered the spread. The oddsmakers had the over/under line set at 208.5 points, which the teams did not surpass.
In the Heat's previous five games as the favorite, they have a straight up record of 3-2 while going 4-1 against the spread. Across their last three road games, they are 2-1 ATS and 2-1 straight up. Their previous ten games have an over/under mark of 5-5 with an average of 222 points per contest.
Across Boston's last five games at home, they have an ATS mark of 2-3 while going 3-2 straight-up. As the favorite, the Celtics are 2-1 straight up on an average scoring differential of 13 points per game. This has led to an ATS mark of 1-2. Their previous ten games have ended in an average of 217 points per game and an over/under mark of 5-5.
Recommended ATS Betting Pick: BOS -7.5
Recommended OU Betting Pick: Under 203.5
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