Backfield Breakdowns and Target Shares - Fantasy Football Week 7 Outlooks for Jared Goff, Derrick Henry, AJ Brown, and More

Update as of 10/15/2024 at 1:30 pm ET: This article was published this morning at 6 am ET, but now includes an update after Davante Adams was traded from the Las Vegas Raiders to the New York Jets.

Davante Adams is on the Move

The NFL just delivered a bombshell! Davante Adams is heading to the New York Jets, where he’ll reunite with former Packers teammate Aaron Rodgers. If you’re a Jets fan, you’re probably doing backflips right now. If you’re a fantasy manager with Garrett Wilson, though, you might be biting your nails. This trade could change the entire dynamic of the Jets' offense, and not necessarily in a good way for everyone involved.

Trade condition update: The conditional third-round pick the Jets are trading to the Raiders for Davante Adams becomes a second if any of the following happen, per source:

🏈Adams must be 1st- or 2nd-team AP all pro
🏈On the active roster for AFC championship game or Super Bowl. pic.twitter.com/CA89NUk71E

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 15, 2024

Let’s start with Rodgers. Through six games this season, he’s put up 1,387 passing yards, nine touchdowns, and five interceptions. The numbers haven’t exactly jumped off the page, but it’s important to remember that the Jets' pace of play, sitting at 62.5 plays per game, is smack dab in the middle of the pack. It hasn’t been explosive, but they’ve managed to be competent at times.

The addition of Adams could potentially turn this offense from "meh" to "wow" real quick, especially with the existing chemistry between Rodgers and his favorite target from their Green Bay days. Adams has been underutilized in Vegas this year, tallying just 18 receptions for 209 yards and a single touchdown. Now, in New York, he could finally get back to being the elite WR1 we’ve known for years.

But here’s the flip side, this isn’t all sunshine and rainbows for everyone involved. While Rodgers and Adams might be back to their old tricks, this move could be devastating for Garrett Wilson’s fantasy outlook. Wilson has been heating up over the past few weeks, and just when he was starting to find his groove, boom, Adams comes to town and might soak up a significant portion of those targets.

With Adams demanding a lion's share of the attention, Wilson could find himself relegated to the backseat, making him a much riskier fantasy option moving forward.

For the Jets, the move makes sense. They’re sitting at 2-4, but clearly, they’re all in on trying to salvage 2024. With the AFC looking wobblier than we’ve seen in recent years, the Jets see an opening. Adding Adams to the mix gives them a legitimate chance to make a run, even if this season hasn’t gone as planned. So, while the team has been underwhelming so far, it’s clear they’re not ready to wave the white flag just yet.

Do the Jets have a thing for the Packers sloppy seconds or something? You have to wonder! Nonetheless, keep an eye on how this plays out, there’s a lot of fantasy value shifting hands with this trade, and Adams could be the key to unlocking a new level for the Jets' offense.

A.J. Brown Makes His Triumphant Return

After missing the last month with a hamstring injury, the Eagles star wide receiver returned to action against the Browns in Week 6, seeing a 37.5% target share to finish with six receptions for 116 yards and a touchdown. It was a must-needed lift for quarterback Jalen Hurts, who was also without wide receiver DeVonta Smith in their Week 4 loss to Tampa Bay.

Brown is one of the best receivers in football and when Philadelphia's offense is healthy, they have a nice arsenal of talent with Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert. After disappointing for fantasy in Weeks 2-3, Hurts was able to get back to his usual high-scoring ways with a 21.9 PPG finish in Week 6, although he has just one game so far with over 33-plus yards rushing.

Brown finished with 20.6 fantasy points in half-PPR formats and is the clear primary target for this offense in go-to situations.

Expect Brown, Smith, and Barkley to be top fantasy options in this offense the rest of the way and for Hurts to finally get clicking now that this offense is back at full strength.

AJ BROWN IS BACK.

📺: #CLEvsPHI on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/U1QF0FGRjI

— NFL (@NFL) October 13, 2024

What to Make of the Tampa Bay Bucs Backfield?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Rachaad White missed the team's Week 6 contest with an injury and the void was filled by rookie Bucky Irving and second-year player Sean Tucker. Both players would rush 28 times for 217 yards and two touchdowns as the Bucs dropped a 50-burger on the Saints. Tucker and Irving would also combine for five receptions for 80 yards and another score. Sheesh.

White is a fantastic pass catcher out of the backfield, but there have been some severe concerns about his rushing efficiency since he entered the league in 2022, and the coaching staff has tried to lighten his load by getting Irving more involved. Factor in Tucker potentially carving out a role in this offense as well, and well, yeah, this could become an awful three-headed monster for fantasy.

It's still too early to say, but Tucker was a guy who showed some promise during his time at Syracuse in college but ended up going undrafted due to a medical condition that was discovered at the 2023 NFL Combine. He would sign with the Bucs shortly after the draft and ended up making the team. Tucker didn't do much as a rookie, but it's safe to say he looked impressive on Sunday.

#Bucs HC Todd Bowles on whether Sean Tucker’s performance has now turned the backfield into a three-headed monster:

“It’s definitely worthy of him making it a three-headed monster. He took advantage of his opportunities… He made some great plays, he caught the ball well out of… pic.twitter.com/lBfwteWMbn

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) October 14, 2024

One of the things that kept Tucker off the field as a rookie was his lack of pass protection, but on Sunday he finished with 32.7 fantasy points and was considered PFF's best rusher of Week 6, averaging 9.7 yards per carry.

Tampa's offense has been solid for fantasy with quarterback Baker Mayfield continuing to roll and wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin continuing to be maybe the most underrated duo in the league. We still want pieces of this Bucs offense for fantasy in 2024, but this backfield situation will be one to monitor closely going forward.

Baltimore and Derrick Henry Keep Rolling

Week 6 was a feast for fantasy managers with stakes in the Baltimore Ravens, and if you're one of those lucky folks, you're probably still grinning. Let's talk about what went down, because the Ravens' offense, under the wizardry of offensive coordinator Todd Monken, was nothing short of spectacular.

Starting with the ground game, Derrick Henry turned back the clock, steamrolling for a whopping 132 yards on 24 carries and finding the end zone twice. Henry was doling out stiff arms like Halloween candy, reminding everyone why he’s been a fantasy darling for years. Then, swinging over to the aerial attack, Zay Flowers erupted for 132 yards on 9 catches, slicing through defenses with the precision of a hot knife through butter.

Derrick Henry this season:

Week 1: 13 carries, 46 yards, TD
Week 2: 18 carries, 84 yards, TD
Week 3: 25 carries, 151 yards, 2 TD
Week 4: 24 carries, 199 yards, 2 total TD
Week 5: 15 carries, 92 yards, TD
Week 6: 24 carries, 132 yards, 2 TD

Season-long pace: 1,995 rushing… pic.twitter.com/3iRmNlse6C

— Field Yates (@FieldYates) October 14, 2024

The real magic, though, might just be brewing for Lamar Jackson. Under Monken's scheme, Jackson's dual-threat capabilities are being maximized in ways that scream MVP season again. If this offensive symphony keeps playing as sweetly as it did in Week 6, we’re not just looking at potential fantasy championships for those smart enough to draft Ravens players, we’re looking at Jackson possibly snagging another NFL MVP trophy.

Henry unlocks a new element that the Ravens offense hasn't had despite some potent rushing offenses in years past. With a back like Henry paired with a quarterback like Jackson, defenses have to pick their poison. Defensive fronts are typically playing wider to keep Lamar from getting to the edge, but it's creating rushing lanes inside for Henry to just munch on defenses every week!

Keep your eyes glued here, folks, because Baltimore is cooking up something special, and that 0-2 start seems like a lifetime ago. It's still valid to have questions about tight end Mark Andrews for fantasy, but Jackson, Henry, and Flowers are all looking spectacular right now.

Wide Receiver Target Share Data from Week 6

Here are the wide receivers with the highest target shares from Week 6. Due to load times and frame rates on mobile devices, all of the important nuggets of info you need are below in a separate tweet from my RotoBaller colleague, Scott Rinear.

Here are the pass-catching metrics, snap shares, targets per routes run (TPRR), and other important data points for all the pass-catchers in Week 6.

Weekly recap showing some peripheral data for the Top 40 PPR WRs for Week 6

Includes:
Fantasy points
FPTS/Tgt
FPTS/Route
Snap%
Routes
Route%
Targets
Targets/Route (TPRR)
Target Share

Snap/routes data available this quickly thanks to, as always, to @PFF_NateJahnke pic.twitter.com/wMJFpGY88a

— Scott Rinear (@MunderDifflinFF) October 15, 2024

A few important notes regarding wide receivers in Week 6.

Bucs wide receiver Chris Godwin dropped 30 fantasy points in half PPR formats in Week 6. The talented player from Penn State finished with 13 receptions for 125 yards and two touchdowns. Godwin started the season with two top-12 finishes but sputtered out with under 10 fantasy points in each of the last two weeks. The consistent volume is there each week, but the touchdowns haven't always been.

Godwin's touchdowns by season since 2018: 7, 9, 7, 5, 3, 2, and already five in 2024. He's still a solid option for fantasy but the spike weeks like this one due to finding the end zone twice might not always be there for your lineups.

Jaguars tight end Evan Engram returned to action after missing the last four games with a hamstring injury and finished with 10 receptions for 102 yards. The Jaguars have been one of the NFL's biggest disappointments after their 1-5 start, but they still have plenty of intriguing options on offense for fantasy with Engram, rookie Brian Thomas Jr., and Christian Kirk, alongside running backs Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby.

The better question is how soon can quarterback Trevor Lawrence get out of his current funk? Until that happens, there might not be a large enough passing pie to go around in Jacksonville to support all of those weapons.

As mentioned last week, Terry McLaurin finally has a quarterback and it's showing up on the stat sheet. Scary Terry has six or more targets in all but one of the Commanders' games thus far and has found the endzone in three of the last four. McLaurin saw seven targets in Week 6 to finish with six receptions for 53 yards and two TDs. With Jayden Daniels, his career is now no longer capped by below-average quarterback play.

The Lions Offense Puts up 47 Points

Week 6 was a showcase for the Detroit Lions, who put on an offensive clinic that’ll be the talk of fantasy football leagues everywhere. Jared Goff was slinging it like a man possessed, racking up 315 yards and three touchdowns. His arm was on fire, and he wasn’t just checking down, Goff was carving up the Cowboys' secondary like it was a Thanksgiving turkey.

But let’s not forget about the dynamic duo in the backfield. David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs turned the gridiron into their playground, churning out a combined 143 rushing yards and dancing into the end zone twice between them. These guys complement each other like peanut butter and jelly, and they're proving to be a nightmare for opposing defenses.

The aerial assault didn’t stop with Goff, though. Jameson Williams, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and tight end Sam LaPorta each snagged a touchdown, turning the end zone into a Lions-only party. It’s like every time Goff threw the ball, it was a direct invitation to celebrate in the end zone. By the time the dust settled, the Lions had hung a whopping 47 points on the Cowboys, leaving them dazed and confused on their own turf.

Good luck to the Cowboys' defense trying to contain Jameson Williams!pic.twitter.com/yUzo8a4gJz

— LionsFanReport (@lionsfanreport) October 12, 2024

This Detroit offense isn’t just clicking, it’s exploding, and if they keep this up, we’re looking at some serious fantasy gold mines across the board. So, if you’ve got Lions on your fantasy roster, you're probably grinning from ear to ear right about now.

What RBs saw Bell Cow like Usage in Week 6?

Alright, folks, let’s break down those backfield blues. If your lead horse didn’t gallop across your fantasy scoreboard this week, let’s peep the game tape. Picture this: his squad's down by three touchdowns before you can blink, and he's not exactly Mr. Reliable in the passing game. No wonder his stats didn’t pop! Remember, the script of the game tells more of the tale than you might think.

Here were the running backs who saw at least a 60% snap share in Week 6.

Houston Texans running back Joe Mixon shook off that pesky high ankle sprain and was back on the field looking fresher than new money. Mixon scampered for 102 yards off 13 carries and found the end zone not once, but twice, first on the ground and then through the air with 30 yards on two receptions. Mixon's return was huge for a lot of lineups this week.

On the flip side, under the bright lights of Sunday Night Football, New York Giants' Tyrone Tracy Jr. was grinding it out with 17 carries for a hard-earned 50 yards and a touchdown. But Tracy wasn’t just a ground threat, he was catching passes out of the backfield too, snagging six receptions for an additional 57 yards. His versatile performance kept fantasy managers in the game, showcasing his ability to handle a full workload.

However, with Devin Singletary eyeing a return from his groin injury, the Giants' backfield is about to get as crowded as a New York subway at rush hour. Tracy's been holding down the fort, but we're likely heading into a timeshare situation where the carries and targets could get sliced up. For fantasy managers, it's time to stay sharp and monitor how this backfield shuffle plays out.

Some other backfield shake-ups include Tennessee Titans' Tyjae Spears, who pulled up with a hamstring injury that could sideline him for a while. This is massive, especially for those holding Tony Pollard, as these two had been splitting carries like they were divvying up a pizza. With Spears likely out, Pollard’s stock just shot up like a meme stock. Expect him to carry the load and give you that RB1 production we’ve all been waiting for.

Meanwhile, in Cincinnati, we saw Chase Brown officially overtake Zack Moss for backfield duties, a move that could’ve been sped up by Moss suffering a high ankle sprain the previous week. High-ankle sprains are like that annoying friend who overstays their welcome and can tend to linger. So, while Brown’s ascent might’ve been nudged along by injury, he’s taking advantage.

Keep an eye on Moss's recovery, but Brown is looking like the guy for the Bengals moving forward, and fantasy managers should be licking their chops at his upside.

Now, let’s talk about Jacksonville Jaguars running back Travis Etienne. The hype train has officially hit a speed bump, with Etienne throwing up fantasy scores of 6.5, 9.0, and a gut-punching negative 0.1 points over the past few weeks. Yikes. It's clear he’s not at 100% health, and unless you’re into living dangerously, it’s time to bench him until he’s fully back.

We know Etienne’s got the talent, but right now, he’s giving off serious “can’t trust him” vibes, and you don’t want to be the person starting him while watching your team’s score plummet faster than a botched stock market trade.

Buffalo Bills running back Ray Davis filled in nicely for James Cook on Monday Night Football against the Jets, rushing 20 times for 97 yards and catching three passes for 55 yards. Davis looked good and showcased the ability to be more than just a change-of-pace back. He deserves your attention on waivers heading into Week 7.

The Latest Injury Updates

We should hopefully see Jonathan Taylor, De'Von Achane, and Malik Nabers back in action for Week 7, but please check out Dr. Deepak Chona's tweet below with all the rest of the injury information you need to know heading into Week 7, especially as it relates to Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, and Christian McCaffrey.

#NFL Injury Updates:#Bills James Cook - Out. Confirms moderate severity. Data slightly favors Wk 7 return + initial dip in touches#Rams Cooper Kupp - Wk 7 TBD. Data slightly favors Wk 8#Saints Rashid Shaheed - Plays Thurs. Comments suggest concern. Likely out

1/8

— Deepak Chona, MD. SportsMedAnalytics (@SportMDAnalysis) October 15, 2024

Top Waiver Targets for Week 7

• Ray Davis, RB - Buffalo Bills (13% on Yahoo!, 10% on ESPN)
• Demario Douglas, WR - New England Patriots (7% on Yahoo!, 21% on ESPN)
• Jordan Whittington, WR - Los Angeles Rams (9% on Yahoo!, 8% on ESPN)
• Ty Chandler, RB - Minnesota Vikings (27% on Yahoo!, 33% on ESPN)
• Romeo Doubs, WR - Green Bay Packers (35% on Yahoo!, 30% on ESPN)
• Roschon Johnson, RB - Chicago Bears (26% on Yahoo!, 17% on ESPN)
• JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR - Kansas City Chiefs (32% on Yahoo!, 18% on ESPN)
• Drake Maye, QB - New England Patriots (6% on Yahoo!, 4% on ESPN)

Conclusion

We are hitting that pivotal point in the 2024 NFL season and it's make-or-break time. The gloves are off, and playbooks are wide open, giving us a real look at what each team brings to the table. We're starting to see several offenses shine through for fantasy and it's hard not to feel good about every NFC North team moving forward. All are 4-2 or better. Sheesh!

Now, more than ever, you gotta stay sharp. Don't sleep on those waiver-wire gold mines that could flip your fantasy league upside down. As mentioned, we will be light on the byes for Week 7 with just the Bears and Cowboys out of action followed by no one on a bye in Week 8!

As always, I appreciate you diving into this week's fantasy insights with me. Keep swinging by for those nuggets of wisdom that could give you that slight edge over your league mates. Got questions? Need some strategy tips? Hit me up on X—let’s chat it out. Here’s hoping your fantasy lineup hits a winning streak!

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