Backfield Breakdowns and Target Shares - Fantasy Football Week 6 Outlooks for Joe Burrow, Bijan Robinson, Brandon Aiyuk, Tyrone Tracy

Offense is Sooooo Back

There was a lot of panic in the fantasy football community during the early weeks of the season. Passing numbers were down, star players were injured, and generally, the defenses just seemed to be well ahead of the offenses. Fast forward to Week 5, and nine quarterbacks threw for 300+ yards and that was with four teams on a bye!

We all love to react positively or negatively after each weekend of games because that's generally how it works in the current media culture, but the truth is the answer is always probably somewhere in the middle. Many NFL teams didn't play any of their starters during the preseason due to fear of injury and the recently shortened preseason has only helped attribute to more rust league-wide.

There are a variety of answers as to why the offense was down early, but some of it was just due to the reality that the first few weeks of the season are very much an extension of the preseason. Some players were learning a completely new offense while others like Kirk Cousins were working their way back from some very difficult injuries.

Everyone: NFL passing game is dead.

Kirk Cousins: 509 yards, 4 TDs
Joe Burrow: 392 yards, 3 TDs (so far)
Trevor Lawrence: 371 yards, 2 TDs
Joe Flacco: 359 yards, 2 TDs
Lamar Jackson: 333 yards, 4 TDs (so far)
C.J. Stroud: 326 yards, 1 TD (so far)
Caleb Williams: 304 yards, 2 TDs

— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) October 6, 2024

One thing you're probably sick of hearing me talk about is the continued use of defenses featuring two high safety looks to eliminate explosive plays, but it can be attributed to some of the lack of offense we're seeing.

The No. 1 thing defensive coordinators are trying to eliminate are explosive plays and long touchdowns and the quarterbacks who are good at taking what the defense gives them are the ones thriving.

Defensive lines have also gotten more complex with the added usage of stunts and twists, which puts a lot more pressure on offensive lines to pick up disguised blitz packages. The traditional defensive end has also evolved into more of an undersized, but bendier, faster edge-rusher, with many of these guys weighing 240-250 lbs. Put them up against 300+ lb. offensive tackles on the edge and it's just a clear mismatch in terms of quickness.

A lot of this is a conversation for another day, but it's a myriad of factors affecting offenses right now. Nonetheless, it was nice to see offenses gain back the upper hand, at least for one week.

Thursday Night Football Was a Thriller

Thursday Night Football was an absolute barn burner in real life and for fantasy! The Atlanta Falcons had a walk-off touchdown over their rival Tampa Bay Buccaneers in overtime to win 36-30. Quarterback Kirk Cousins was 42-of-58 for 509 yards with four passing touchdowns and just one interception.

Wide receiver Drake London had arguably the best game of his career with 12 receptions for 154 yards and one touchdown. Now that he isn't constantly having to break off his routes to adjust for poorly thrown passes like he did in 2022 and 2023 during the Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder, and Taylor Heinicke years, London is thriving and looks to be a solid WR1 rest of season.

Here's your reminder that Kirk Cousins was a MACHINE this week.

🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯 pic.twitter.com/zTeHNnzVV9

— Henry McKenna (@henrycmckenna) October 7, 2024

Conversely, Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield continued his career resurgence and finished 19-of-24 for 180 yards and three touchdowns. Wide receiver Mike Evans also had five receptions for 62 yards and two touchdowns. The Bucs scored plenty but had several short drives in terms of yardage that kept yards down for their skill players.

So what do we make of running back Bijan Robinson? Robinson has largely underperformed after being taken as the RB2 with an average ADP of around 7.0 in fantasy drafts. So far in 2024 for Bijan: RB20, RB15, RB17, RB28. In Week 5? Just 17 touches for 77 yards. The problem with Bijan for fantasy is that he isn't being used like a bell cow and doesn't have the efficiency to make up for it.

Tyler Allgeier was always a much better running back than he was given credit for. The good news? The Falcons get the Carolina Panthers in Week 6, which means that now could be a good time to buy low on Robinson. Nonetheless, some troubling warning signs have emerged.

Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase are Sizzling

Joe Burrow reminded everyone why he's one of the NFL's elite quarterbacks in Week 5, absolutely torching the Ravens' defense with a masterclass performance. He completed 30-of-39 passes for a staggering 392 yards, five touchdowns, and just one interception. If that wasn’t enough to get Bengals fans on their feet, Burrow’s elite chemistry with his favorite target, Ja'Marr Chase, was on full display as well.

Chase racked up 10 catches for 193 yards and two touchdowns, once again proving he's one of the most dangerous weapons in the league with the ball in his hands. Despite the Bengals sitting at 1-4, there’s plenty of reason for optimism. The offense is finally firing on all cylinders, with Burrow looking sharp, confident, and in complete control.

The supporting cast around him is stepping up, too. Andrei Iosivas has quietly become a reliable option, Mike Gesicki is starting to find his groove in this offense, and even the backfield with Zack Moss and Chase Brown is showing real signs of life. With Burrow slinging the ball like this, it feels like it's only a matter of time before they start stacking up wins despite the slow start.

Ja’Marr Chase passes Jerry Rice for the 5th-most receiving yards by a player through 50 career games.

Unreal start to his career.

📺: #BALvsCIN on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/7bG1XstDUO

— NFL (@NFL) October 6, 2024

Their defense isn't as good as it's been in years past, but this is far from a lost season. Defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo will have to get a little more creative in terms of how he wants to deploy his defense, but if Week 5 was any indication, this offense is primed to turn things around in a big way. Burrow’s been here before -- backed into a corner only to come out swinging.

The despite taking a step back could make this scenario the perform storm for weekly shootouts and tons of fantasy points from the Bengals offense. With a talent like Chase lighting it up alongside him, Burrow looks like his old self and there's still room for Cincinnati to turn things around.

Wide Receiver Target Share Data from Week 5

Here are the wide receivers who had the highest target shares from Week 5 of the 2024 NFL season. Due to frame rates and load times on mobile devices, all the important details you need are below in a separate tweet from my RotoBaller compadre, Scott Rinear.

These are the vital pass-catching metrics, snap shares, targets per routes run (TPRR), and other important nuggets.

My weekly recap showing the Top 40 PPR WRs for Week 5

Includes:

Fantasy points
FPTS/Tgt
FPTS/Route
Snap%
Routes
Route%
Targets
Targets/Route (TPRR)
Target Share

Snap/routes data available this quickly thanks to, as always, to @PFF_NateJahnke pic.twitter.com/12hFj72uUB

— Scott Rinear (@MunderDifflinFF) October 8, 2024

A few important notes regarding pass catchers in Week 6:

Brandon Aiyuk shined after a slow start to the season. His slow start was to be expected after holding out during training camp and the preseason, but it was nice to see Aiyuk back in action with eight receptions for 147 yards, including a long of 53 yards.

Is JuJu Smith-Schuster back? The Kansas City Chiefs offense is currently down running back Isiah Pacheco along with wide receivers Marquise Brown and Rashee Rice and it's looking like both wideouts could miss the entire season. JuJu filled in nicely on Monday Night Football seeing eight targets to finish with seven receptions for 130 yards and a score. He's worth your attention on waivers this week.

Terry McLaurin finally has himself a quarterback and it's paying dividends in fantasy. Scary Terry has eight or more targets in three of the Commanders' last four games and has found the endzone in two of the last three. McLaurin saw eight targets in Week 5 against the Browns and finished with four receptions for 112 yards. The days of him being dragged down by below-average quarterback play are gone.

Brian Thomas Jr. continues to impress. The Jaguars got their first win of the season and currently sit at 1-4, but the rookie has been a bright spot for the offense in 2024. Thomas saw eight targets and finished with five receptions for 122 yards and a score. The consistent, heavy target volume hasn't been there every week, but he is showing flashes of greatness thus far and is a nightmare for defensive backs to stay with for long.

What RBs Were Bell Cows in Week 5?

Here were the running backs who saw at least a 60% snap share in Week 5.

Alright, let's talk game-day stats for our backfield warriors. If your top running back didn't exactly set your fantasy scoreboard on fire this week, take a gander at the game situation. Say his team was trailing by three touchdowns early on, and he’s not much of a pass-catcher; well, that explains the lackluster numbers. Game scripts play a huge role.

It was a bit of a down week for running backs as just four of them went over 100-plus yards rushing and only Tank Bigsby had 25-plus fantasy points in half PPR formats. He was the only back to also eclipse the 20-point mark in fantasy scoring. To say running backs were down in Week 5 would be an understatement.

Running back Aaron Jones left the London game against the New York Jets early with a hip injury and backup Ty Chandler played most of the contest. Keep an eye on Jones' health going forward.

Giants running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. shined in Devin Singletary's absence. A former converted wide receiver at Purdue, the rookie back carried the rock 18 times for 129 yards but didn't find the end zone. He only had one reception for one yard, but Tracy has some serious pass-catching chops out of the backfield and could carve into Singletary's backfield time when he returns.

Jaguars running back Tank Bigsby had another impressive Sunday where he ripped off 13 carries for 101 yards and two touchdowns in Week 5. Starting running back Travis Etienne continues to be hampered by a shoulder injury and it's fair to question how soon Bigsby makes this backfield more of a committee. Head coach Doug Pederson has said that Etienne is still the guy, but Bigsby deserves your attention just in case.

Important Injury Updates Heading into Week 6

• Houston Texans wide receiver Nico Collins suffered a pulled hamstring and left the Texans-Bills game early, but he is currently listed as week-to-week. Monitor this situation going forward, but if Collins is out, it makes guys like Dalton Schultz and Tank Dell a must-start.
• Miami Dolphins running back De'Von Achane suffered a concussion in Week 5 and was ruled out. Keep an eye on his health this week.
• Cincinnati Bengals running back Zack Moss suffered a high ankle sprain and could miss Week 6. Chase Brown becomes a must-start in that instance.

Check out Dr. Deepak Chona's tweet below with all the rest of the injury information you need to know heading into Week 6.

#NFL Injury Updates:#Texans Nico Collins - Avg = 2 wks out. Lean towards Wk 8-9 return. +Re-injury risk (higher the sooner he returns)#Chiefs Rashee Rice - Season over. Suspect ~6 months if LCL reports accurate. Likely ready Wk 1 w/o major dip

1/XX

— Deepak Chona, MD. SportsMedAnalytics (@SportMDAnalysis) October 8, 2024

Top Waiver Targets for Week 6

• Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB - New York Giants (23% on Yahoo!, 18% on ESPN)
• Jalen Tolbert, WR - Dallas Cowboys (7% on Yahoo!, 8% on ESPN)
• Tank Bigsby, RB - Jacksonville Jaguars (23% on Yahoo!, 10% on ESPN)
• Josh Downs, WR - Indianapolis Colts (40% on Yahoo!, 35% on ESPN)
• Roschon Johnson, RB - Chicago Bears (20% on Yahoo!, 11% on ESPN)
• JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR - Kansas City Chiefs (6% on Yahoo!, 4% on ESPN)

Conclusion

We’re at that crunch time in the 2024 NFL season, where it's all starting to come together -- or fall apart. The playbooks open now, and we’re seeing what each team’s made of as they shake off the preseason dust and show their true colors on offense.

Keeping tabs on these trends is crucial. Don't be caught snoozing on a waiver-wire wonder that could turn your fantasy season on its head. Week 6 will be the second week of byes. Heading into Week 6, the Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams, Miami Dolphins, and Minnesota Vikings will all be on a bye. Plan accordingly.

Thanks for diving into this week’s deep dive with me, and make sure to keep coming back for those golden nuggets of fantasy wisdom that might just help you edge out the competition. Hit me up on X with any queries or for a bit of tactical chit-chat, and here’s to your fantasy fortunes taking a turn for the better!

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