Backfield Breakdowns and Target Shares - Fantasy Football Week 5 Outlooks for Sam Darnold, Derrick Henry, Nico Collins, and More (2024)

2024: The Year of the Not-so-Elite Tight End

What made drafting one of the top tight ends so enticing in fantasy football drafts this year was the reality they had become cheaper than ever. According to FantasyData, the price of drafting the TE1 in fantasy dropped an average of 13 spots in ADP, from 13.9 down to 27.0 in 2024. Over the last decade, the TE1 was drafted at the 1-2 turn in drafts, an expensive opportunity cost.

Now, some of this is due to the reality of prime Rob Gronkowski and Travis Kelce being two of the best tight ends to ever play the sport and being fantasy football cheat codes, but that's a conversation for another day.

Here is a look at the average positional rank of the top 12 tight ends in fantasy in ADP from 2014-2023 versus what they were in 2024.

Currently, just two tight ends in fantasy are averaging over 10 points per game, Dallas Goedert (11.9) and George Kittle (10.5). To say the position has drastically underperformed would be the understatement of the year. But what makes it even tougher to swallow is the opportunity cost that comes with it.

If you drafted Travis Kelce, you could have had Deebo Samuel Sr. or Nico Collins instead. For Sam LaPorta, you could have had Mike Evans, James Cook, or Stefon Diggs. For Mark Andrews, the opportunity cost was Alvin Kamara, Malik Nabers, or Aaron Jones, on average. Not only are the elite tight ends letting you down, but they cost you an elite player elsewhere, leaving you behind the rest of your league mates.

Mark Andrews's fantasy points:
W1: 3.4
W2: 9.1
W3: 0
W4 (so far): 0pic.twitter.com/sQgIA1r5vN

— Fantasy Life (@MBFantasyLife) September 30, 2024

Arizona Cardinals tight end Trey McBride is probably going to be fine for fantasy, but Andrews has just six receptions for 65 yards through four games. That is not a typo.

Right now, Travis Kelce is the TE14 with just 5.9 fantasy points per game, Kyle Pitts is the TE17 at just 5.1 fantasy points per game, and Andrews is the TE44 at just 2.4. Oof!

The hope is that this trend won't continue and that the elite tight ends can regain their footing, but right now, it's not good. You can't trade them for anything, and you likely can't bench them because you didn't draft a second tight end. It's just a lose-lose situation across the board right now.

The Injury Bug Continues to Bite

If you thought 2024 was going to be a fantasy football fairytale, injuries have turned it into more of a horror show. It’s been a rough ride with some of the biggest names on the injury report turning weekly lineup decisions into headaches. Let’s talk about the likes of Christian McCaffrey, A.J. Brown, and Puka Nacua, who've all been hit with the injury bug hard this season, not to mention Isiah Pacheco, Cooper Kupp, and Tua Tagovailoa.

These aren’t just any players, these are top-tier talents whose absence can make or break your week and the ripple effect on the rest of the entire Miami Dolphins offense as it relates to wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle without their quarterback has been a tough one.

Injuries by Fantasy Draft ADP:

1.2: Christian McCaffrey - IR/out indefinitely
10.9: A.J. Brown - out
15.3: Puka Nacua - IR/out 5-7 weeks
19: Isiah Pacheco - IR/out 6-8 weeks
29: Deebo Samuel - out weeks
29.7: Cooper Kupp - IR/out indefinitely
38.3: Joe Mixon - ankle being…

— Yahoo Fantasy Sports (@YahooFantasy) September 16, 2024

Just when we thought maybe some relief was in sight, Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice was likely lost for the season with a torn ACL in Week 4 after trying to make a tackle on an overthrown Patrick Mahomes interception. The Chiefs are now without Pacheco and wide receiver Marquise Brown to go alongside Rice. Ouch. Could the Chiefs be in the market to add another wide receiver over the next month? It's possible.

Football is a violent game, but the onslaught of injuries, especially to some key offensive players has made fantasy football even more difficult this year and quite frankly, just incredibly frustrating. So, here’s to making the best out of a bad situation, and maybe, just maybe, catching a break or two as we navigate this minefield of a season!

Top Storylines from MNF

We had a Monday Night doubleheader, and the Detroit Lions offense was cooking up plenty of goodness on Monday night. Quarterback Jared Goff was a perfect 18-for-18 passing for 292 yards and two touchdowns while catching another on a trick play from wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown. The Lions put up 42 points and looked to finally be clicking on offense after sputtering through the first few weeks.

Running back Jahmyr Gibbs out-snapped David Montgomery by a count of 29-21, but they each had similar routes run and carries throughout the game. Gibbs found the end zone twice while Montgomery found it once. They remain arguably the best backfield duo in all of fantasy where each running back is viable.

Wide receiver Jameson Williams had two receptions for 80 yards including a touchdown that he took 70 yards to the house while showing off some dangerous speed.

Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III returned to action after missing the last two weeks with an oblique injury and looked incredible, rushing 12 times for 80 yards and three touchdowns! He also caught four passes for 39 yards. Walker had significantly more attempts than his counterpart, Zach Charbonnet and looks to be a low-end RB1/high-end RB2 the rest of the way.

Charbonnet saw some of the goal line carries as well as more of the receiving work, but it's pretty clear that the Seahawks coaching staff continues to view Walker as the team's RB1.

The Miami Dolphins on the other hand? They were shown the door en route to a difficult 31-12 loss to the Tennessee Titans. Without quarterback Tua Tagovailoa at the helm, wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have been rendered bench-able in fantasy for the time being. Over the last two weeks, Hill has just seven receptions for 63 yards and no touchdowns while Waddle has eight catches for 72 yards. Yikes.

Without their quarterback, it's difficult to play anyone from the Miami offense in fantasy right now and that's just sad. While he might be the most likeable and relatable head coach out there, is it time to start having a conversation about Mike McDaniel's coaching chops?

Jordan Love Returns to Green Bay

Speaking of injuries, the Packers quarterback returned to make his second start of the season in Week 4 after suffering a knee injury in the opener that many believed would end up much worse than it was. Head coach Matt LaFleur had the Packers go 2-0 over that stretch with backup Malik Willis at the helm, but it was pretty clear that Love would be needed against the Vikings.

Love got off to a slow start, but finished the game 32-for-54 with 389 passing yards to go with four passing touchdowns and three interceptions as the Packers fell to the Vikings 31-29. Nonetheless, it was an impressive performance and one that was paramount to the fantasy success of wide receivers Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, as well as tight end Tucker Kraft.

Dontayvion Wicks scored 22.3 fantasy points in Week 4 with Christian Watson injured early.

80% route participation
24% target share (led team)
35% air yards share (led team)

Will rank as a WR2 for me next week if Watson is out.

Available in 87% of Yahoo leagues.

Must add, y'all.

— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) September 29, 2024

Wide receiver Christian Watson suffered a lower leg injury after getting tangled up with a Vikings defensive back and will likely miss several weeks or more. Wicks stepped up in his absence and looks like a must-add on waivers here in Week 5. Per PFF, Wicks played 58 snaps on Sunday, ran 45 routes, and saw 13 targets to finish with five receptions for 78 yards and two touchdowns.

There's likely enough room for all three wide receivers in Green Bay to be viable for fantasy now that their quarterback has returned. The Packers are 2-2 and weathered some of the early storms, but their defense isn't shaping up to be as good as some hoped. This could result in their offense playing in a lot of shootouts the rest of the way, which could be great for fantasy.

The Curious Case of the Baltimore Ravens Offense

It's been an interesting four games for the Ravens on offense, tight end jokes aside. Quarterback Lamar Jackson has yet to top 300 yards passing in a single game, but after an 0-2 start that saw them drop two close contests, Baltimore has roared back to life to even the score at 2-2. The Ravens largely dominated the 3-0 Buffalo Bills on Sunday Night Football by a score of 35-10, and the game was never particularly close.

Jackson has 858 yards passing to go with five passing touchdowns and just one interception. Wide receiver Zay Flowers has 26 targets through four games, but it's becoming clear that this team's offensive identity is going to flow through running back Derrick Henry and it's time to take my first "L" of the season for suggesting he was a fade in 2024.

Despite being 30 years old, Henry leads the NFL in rushes of 20+ yards with six. He's getting some impressive rushing lanes while playing alongside Jackson and it's been great for his fantasy value. Henry has 80 carries so far through four games for 480 yards and six touchdowns. While he isn't doing much as a receiver, it likely still won't matter barring an injury.

The Ravens had to re-tool a lot of pieces this offseason, but their defense is starting to come together, and being able to pound the rock to sustain drives and keep their defense fresh will be an important part of the game plan. Henry like Saquon Barkley is shining in a new offense in a much better situation. At this rate, it will be difficult to see Henry scoring less than 15 touchdowns and finishing as a top-6 running back for fantasy.

Sam Darnold, Come on Down

Oh boy, talk about a comeback kid! Sam Darnold, who many had written off as a bust, is flipping the script in Minnesota. Under the savvy guidance of head coach Kevin O'Connell, Darnold is showcasing that maybe, just maybe, the league gave up on him too soon. And with a weapon like Justin Jefferson, who can turn a simple slant into a highlight reel, Darnold’s job gets a bit easier and a lot more thrilling.

Diving deeper, it’s clear Darnold’s playing with the urgency of a man who knows this might be his last shot to prove he's starter material. He's cutting down on those facepalm-worthy mistakes and playing with a poise that whispers of maturity and confidence. This isn’t the shaky quarterback we saw flounder with the Jets. This is a guy who’s been given the tools and trust by O'Connell to lead the team with some real ambition.

What's even more impressive about Darnold is that he completed his first eight passes on Sunday to eight different players. While having Jefferson in the fold as his security blanket is important, Darnold has been thriving in his head coach's scheme. For the first time, he looks calm and collected back there in the pocket.

True or False: Sam Darnold is the MVP favorite after 4 weeks. pic.twitter.com/3SjIjlgC0D

— VikingzFanPage (@vikingzfanpage) September 29, 2024

Minnesota is still without stud tight end T.J. Hockenson, who should soon be returning from the PUP list. Running back Aaron Jones has been a huge part of the team's success and wide receiver Jordan Addison is ramping back up after missing two weeks with an ankle injury. Jefferson will remain the largest benefactor, but we should have confidence in Darnold sustaining multiple pass-catchers for fantasy.

The Vikings are benefiting from Darnold’s determination to rewrite his narrative from a draft bust to a resilient leader. If he keeps this up, we might just be witnessing one of the best feel-good stories in the NFL this season. Keep your eyes peeled, because if Darnold has his way, the Vikings are going to be a tough out for anyone on their schedule.

Vital Target Share Data from Week 4

These are the pass catchers with the highest target shares from Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season. Because of how frame rates and load times can be a bit finicky, all the juicy details will be dropped in a separate tweet below instead of cramming it here to keep things snappy and for this page to flow smoothly!

Here are all the important wide receiver metrics, snap shares, targets per route run, and fantasy points per route run, from my RotoBaller colleague, Scott Rinear.

💥Week 4 Top 40 WRs (PPR) (including MNF)💥
Fantasy points
FPTS/Tgt
FPTS/Route
Snap%
Routes
Route%
Targets
Targets per route run (TPRR)
Target share #FantasyFootball

*Snap/route data per @PFF_NateJahnke @PFF pic.twitter.com/X0F7sRlvcR

— Scott Rinear (@MunderDifflinFF) October 1, 2024

A few important points to consider for some of the wide receivers in fantasy after the first month of the season.

Texans' wide receiver Nico Collins continues his hot streak. He's the WR1 in fantasy in overall points scored and second only to A.J. Brown with 19.0 fantasy points per game in half-PPR formats. Collins has carved out a 29% target share to go along with a 45% air yard share. He is the real deal.

Diontae Johnson had another solid outing with Andy Dalton as the starting quarterback in Carolina. Johnson in two games with Dalton has averaged 20.0 fantasy points per game to go alongside a 35% target share and a 55% air yards share. He is elite at getting open and should be a solid asset for fantasy going forward.

Giants' wide receiver Malik Nabers currently leads the NFL in targets with 52 and has been the focal point of their offense. Nabers has two top 3 WR finishes to his name and should be viewed as a WR1 for the rest of the season. He's an elite talent despite being a rookie and his team has no choice but to continue trying to get him the ball.

Ja'Marr Chase got back on track after two slow games to start the year. The talented Bengals receiver has three touchdowns in his last two games to go along with 203 receiving yards.

What Running Backs Saw Bell-Cow Usage in Week 3?

Here were the running backs who saw at least a 60% snap share in Week 4.

Alright, let's talk game-day stats for our backfield warriors. If your top running back didn't exactly set your fantasy scoreboard on fire this week, take a gander at the game situation. Say his team was trailing by three touchdowns early on, and he’s not much of a pass-catcher, well that explains the lackluster numbers. Game scripts play a huge role.

Now, flip over to your wide receivers. If your go-to guy didn't pull his weight but his team was comfortably leading against a backup QB by halftime, chances are they just took the air out of the football and ran down the clock. Again, it’s all about the game script, and understanding the context of the game can save you from some fantasy heartaches. Here’s a little more insight into the running back situation to chew on.

The Bengals backfield is becoming more of a committee than we thought. Running back Chase Brown has continued to see his usage grow over the last three games, going from an 18% snap share up to 23% in Week 3, and up to 42% in Week 4. His rush attempts and route percentages have also increased with Brown getting two of the team's three carries inside the five-yard line in Week 4.

This author has to eat some crow on D'Andre Swift. After suggesting the Bears' backfield was becoming a three-headed monster and clear avoid for fantasy, Swift had a huge game in Week 4. Swift rushed 16 times for 91 yards and one touchdown while catching seven passes for 72 yards. If this Bears' offense can finally start clicking, there's a chance we might be able to start Swift with confidence.

Bucky Irving continues to play more in Tampa. Veteran Rachaad White had his lowest snap share in a game (58%) since he split backfield time with Leonard Fournette back in 2022. Irving had four goal-line carries to White's four goal-line carries in Week 4 and was more involved on third downs. He should be rostered in all formats.

Brian Robinson Jr. played most of the Commanders' snaps in Week 4, but fellow teammate Austin Ekeler was out after suffering a concussion from the week before. Nonetheless, what we are seeing from the Washington offense right now with a rookie quarterback in Jayden Daniels under center has been nothing short of impressive.

Colts running back Jonathan Taylor suffered a high-ankle sprain in Week 4 against the Pittsburgh Steelers. It's unsure how long he could be out at this point, but backup running back Trey Sermon should be rostered just in case.

Cam Akers, Dare Ogunbowale, and J.J. Taylor haven't been able to get going in the run game for the Texans and the Texans are hopeful that running back Joe Mixon will be able to get back into action in Week 5. They need him badly.

Kareem Hunt led the Chiefs in backfield touches in Week 4. Veteran Clyde Edwards-Helaire can come off of injured reserve in Week 5, so it's unclear how this backfield is going to look, but Hunt might be the clear favorite for now. Monitor this one.

The Bye Weeks Have Arrived

Week 5 will be the first week of byes. Heading into Week 5, the Detroit Lions, Los Angeles Chargers, Philadelphia Eagles, and Tennessee Titans will all be on a bye. Plan accordingly. The good news is that we should see the return of wide receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith in Week 6.

Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has been banged up, so his having an extra week of rest should help as well.

Top Waiver Targets for Week 5

• Kareem Hunt, RB - Kansas City Chiefs (35% on Yahoo!, 21% on ESPN)
• Dontayvion Wicks, WR - Green Bay Packers (14% on Yahoo!, 10% on ESPN)
• Trey Sermon, RB - Indianapolis Colts (1% Yahoo!, 1% ESPN)
• Emanuel Wilson, RB - Green Bay Packers (14% on Yahoo!, 9% on ESPN)
• Josh Downs, WR - Indianapolis Colts (20% on Yahoo!, 9% ESPN)
• Wan'Dale Robinson, WR - New York Giants (26% Yahoo! 27% ESPN)

Conclusion

Alright, gang, we've hit that make-or-break moment in the 2024 NFL season where it's becoming clear what we're dealing with. The writings on the wall for a lot of teams, and their offensive identities are coming into focus now that a lot of the rust has been shaken off.

Keeping an eye on the evolving trends is key. Don’t be the one sleeping on a potential breakout that could flip your season around. There are several gems on waivers this week who are worth spending up on, and those waiver moves along with start/sits are only going to get trickier now that we are heading into the byes.

Thanks for checking out this week’s insights and keep tuning in for those nuggets of wisdom that could give you the upper hand over your league mates. Drop me a line on X if you’ve got questions or need a few tips, and here’s to hoping your fantasy season is looking up.

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