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Backfield Breakdowns and Target Shares - Fantasy Football Week 12 Outlooks for Bo Nix, Christian McCaffrey, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and More

Amon-Ra St. Brown - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Week 11 of the 2024 NFL season is in the rearview, and what a ride it was for fantasy managers. With the Bucs, Cardinals, Giants, and Panthers on a bye, lineup decisions got a little trickier, but the games delivered their usual highs, lows, and heart-stopping moments. Whether it was a breakout performance or a gut-wrenching dud, Week 11 had it all.

This season has been a grind, with injuries piling up and rosters getting stretched thin. Every week, we dig deep into the details—tracking snap counts, analyzing target shares, and breaking down backfield splits to find those little edges that make all the difference. These aren’t just numbers; they’re the key to winning those razor-close start/sit calls.

As we gear up for Week 12, there’s plenty to unpack from the action. Whether you’re fighting for a playoff spot or looking to lock down a first-round bye, I have the insights to help you make those game-changing decisions. Let’s dive into the biggest takeaways and get ready to finish strong!

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024:

 

Bo Nix Continues to Fly Under the Radar

Bo Nix has been one of the biggest surprises of the 2024 NFL season, proving his doubters wrong and shining as a rookie quarterback for the Denver Broncos. Selected No. 12 overall in the draft, many felt Nix was over-drafted, but he’s quickly silenced those critics with his poise and production.

Through 11 games, Nix has completed 234 of 357 passes (65.5%) for 14 touchdowns and just six interceptions. Even more impressive, only two of those picks have come over his last nine starts, showing he’s learning quickly and protecting the football at a high level.

One of the key elements to Nix’s success has been his mobility. He’s rushed for 295 yards and four touchdowns, keeping defenses on their heels with his ability to extend plays and create yardage with his legs. His scrambling has been a nightmare for opposing defenses and a quiet boon for fantasy managers, offering a consistent floor to his weekly scoring.

Whether he’s picking up first downs or punching it into the end zone, Nix’s dual-threat capability has made him a valuable option in fantasy leagues.

At 6-5, the Broncos are right in the thick of the playoffs, and the fanbase has been re-energized under head coach Sean Payton.

Nix’s development has been a huge part of that resurgence, with his calm demeanor and knack for making plays in crucial moments helping Denver turn a corner. Payton’s influence on the offense is clear, and he’s found a way to maximize Nix’s skill set even without a roster full of established weapons.

Outside of Courtland Sutton, the Broncos’ supporting cast isn’t exactly star-studded, which makes Nix’s production all the more impressive.

If it weren’t for Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels stealing the spotlight with his jaw-dropping performances, Nix would likely be the runaway favorite for Rookie of the Year. Daniels may be grabbing the headlines, but Nix has quietly put together a stellar rookie campaign, showing maturity and growth week by week.

For fantasy managers, he’s become a reliable streaming option, especially with his rushing ability adding to his value.

Heading into Week 12, Nix is firmly on the radar as a high-end QB2 with upside in matchups where his legs can exploit slower defenses. While the Broncos’ offense is still a work in progress, Nix has proven he can elevate his team and deliver for fantasy managers. He may have been labeled a reach on draft day, but Nix is making it clear he belongs in the NFL—and in your fantasy lineup.

 

Christian McCaffrey is Ramping Up

Christian McCaffrey’s 2024 season has been anything but typical, and fantasy managers are feeling the ripple effects. After missing the first 10 weeks of the season with an Achilles injury, CMC is finally back in action for the San Francisco 49ers.

The team, however, has been up and down during his absence, sitting at a mediocre 5-5 in the standings. Without McCaffrey anchoring the backfield and wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk sidelined for the year with a torn ACL, the 49ers offense hasn’t been firing on all cylinders like we’re used to seeing.

Since returning, McCaffrey has yet to hit top gear, with just 32 rushes for 118 yards (a 3.7 average) and 10 receptions for 95 yards.

Those numbers are a far cry from the elite production we expect from CMC, but it’s important to remember he’s working his way back from a significant injury. The 49ers haven’t been able to lean on him as heavily just yet, but with the offense struggling for consistency, it’s only a matter of time.

Even with a slow start, CMC remains one of the few proper workhorse backs, and that alone makes him valuable for fantasy. His dual-threat ability as a runner and receiver gives him a high floor, and he’s always a threat to explode for a big game.

Patience is key here—CMC might not be putting up league-winning numbers right now, but his role in the 49ers offense ensures he’ll have plenty of opportunities to turn things around.

The 49ers have leaned heavily on Deebo Samuel Sr., George Kittle, and rookie Ricky Pearsall to pick up the slack, but McCaffrey’s return should help stabilize things moving forward. As he gets more comfortable and works off the rust, expect his volume and efficiency to climb. The 49ers need a spark, and McCaffrey is more than capable of providing it.

Heading into Week 12, McCaffrey remains a must-start in all formats. While the numbers haven’t been there yet, the potential is undeniable, and his ability to contribute to both the running and passing game keeps him in the RB1 conversation. Stay patient, keep him locked into your lineups, and trust that CMC will remind us all why he’s one of the best in the game.

 

Amon-Ra St. Brown and the Lions Continue Their Dominance

Amon-Ra St. Brown has been an absolute force in 2024, cementing himself as one of the most reliable players in fantasy football. He’s scored a touchdown in an incredible eight straight games, helping to power the Detroit Lions to a dominant 9-1 record.

Through 10 games, St. Brown has hauled in 65 receptions for 685 yards and 9 touchdowns, making him a locked-and-loaded WR1 in managed leagues every single week.

His ability to deliver consistently, regardless of matchup, has been a major reason the Lions have been both a real-life and fantasy juggernaut this season.

The Lions offense is firing on all cylinders, with Jared Goff commanding the unit like a seasoned pro. The running back duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery has been electric, while Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta have provided explosive plays and reliable production.

Yet, even with all that talent around him, Amon-Ra continues to be the focal point of this offense. His route-running, hands, and chemistry with Goff have made him unstoppable, and it’s no surprise he’s WR5 in fantasy points per game (15.9) and WR2 overall in total points in half-PPR formats.

What makes St. Brown so special is his consistency. Whether he’s working short routes to move the chains or finding the end zone in critical moments, he’s proven to be matchup-proof. The Lions’ balanced attack has only opened up more opportunities for him, as defenses can’t key in on just one player.

Week in and week out, fantasy managers can count on St. Brown to deliver, and his eight-game touchdown streak has made him one of the most valuable players in all of fantasy football.

Detroit’s dominance has translated to plenty of scoring chances, and Amon-Ra has been cashing in. His ability to shine in such a stacked offense speaks volumes about his talent and role in the Lions’ success. No matter who the defense tries to stop, St. Brown always seems to find a way to make an impact, and that reliability has earned him must-start status every week.

Heading into Week 12, St. Brown remains a locked-in top-tier fantasy option and is showing no signs of slowing down. With the Lions rolling and the offense continuing to dominate, expect Amon-Ra to keep stacking points and rewarding fantasy managers. If you’ve got him on your roster, you’re likely cruising toward the playoffs, thanks to his consistent elite production.

 

Wide Receiver Target Shares and Important Data from Week 11

Here are the wide receivers with the highest target shares from Week 11. Due to some longer load times and problems with frame rates on mobile devices, all of the important data points you need are below in a separate tweet from my RotoBaller colleague, Scott Rinear.

Here are the pass-catching metrics, snap shares, targets per routes run (TPRR), and other important data points for all the pass-catchers in Week 11.

 

Which Running Backs Were Bell-Cows in Week 11?

Let’s talk about those backfield booms and busts from Week 11. If your go-to running back didn’t light up the fantasy scoreboard, game scripts always play a big part.

Here were the running backs who saw at least a 60% snap share in Week 11.

Player Team Snap Share Total Touches Fantasy Points
Jonathan Taylor IND 90.0% 25 6.5
Breece Hall NYJ 84.6% 23 27.6
Chase Brown CIN 82.9% 27 16.8
Saquon Barkley PHI 81.7% 28 32.8
Joe Mixon HOU 81.0% 22 34.3
Kyren Williams LAR 80.8% 15 8.6
Josh Jacobs GB 80.4% 22 21.4
Rhamondre Stevenson NE 76.3% 24 10.9
Alvin Kamara NO 73.3% 20 10.9
Kenneth Walker III SEA 73.3% 16 12.9
J.K. Dobbins LAC 73.1% 12 18.4
Travis Etienne Jr. JAC 72.9% 15 4.8
Bijan Robinson ATL 71.9% 16 8.3
Kareem Hunt KC 69.1% 14 6.0
Tony Pollard TEN 62.7% 11 3.9
De'Von Achane MIA 61.8% 21 18.5

 

The Latest Injury Updates

We are in for a rough go on Thanksgiving Day as the 4:25 pm ET game will feature Tommy Devito versus either Cooper Rush or Trey Lance. Ouch. With the Cowboys putting quarterback Dak Prescott on the shelf for the rest of the season, they are completely done.

 

Top Waiver Targets for Week 12

 

Conclusion

We’re deep into the heart of the season now, where every game feels like it carries just a little more weight. And can we talk about the Detroit Lions for a second? Week after week, they’re finding new ways to win, and honestly, it’s been a blast to watch.

With my Browns pretty much out of contention, I’m all-in on rooting for the Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions the rest of the way. We Rust Belt folks have to stick together!

Right now is the time to keep your fantasy radar tuned in, hunting for those waiver wire gems that could be the difference-makers in your lineup. Week 12 brings a bye-mageddon of sorts with the Atlanta Falcons, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Jets, and New Orleans Saints all out of action. It’s going to be a scramble, so staying prepared is the name of the game.

Thanks for sticking with me through this week’s fantasy breakdown! Keep checking back for more insights to help you dominate your league. Got questions or need some advice? You know where to find me on X! Let’s keep those lineups sharp and ready to roll. Here’s to making every matchup count down the stretch!



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