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Well, that was an interesting week. Heavy favorites fell, cellar dwellers won, and many of the top fantasy scorers were on benches or waivers. It's unlikely that Week 10 will bring the same level of unpredictability but that's the great thing about the NFL - you never know what to expect.
In this weekly column, we look at players whose arrow may be pointing up, and players whose arrow may be pointing down based on the previous week's games. We'll try not to overreact, but instead, use relevant data to make informed decisions about certain players.
Here are the key risers and fallers heading into Week 10 (and beyond) of the NFL season.
Fantasy Football Risers for Week 10
Eno Benjamin, Arizona Cardinals
Like a phoenix from the ashes rises second-year running back Eno Benjamin. The Arizona State product was a seventh-round selection in 2020 but didn't see his first NFL offensive snaps until Week 7 of 2021. He was forced into action due to Chase Edmonds' ankle sprain and now inherits his job as the RB2 on the team with the best record. It's eery how similar Benjamin and Edmonds are in terms of size, speed, and measurables. Benjamin should fit right in and can do much of what Edmonds had been doing. That means he can be flexed in most leagues and has the ceiling of a low-end RB2.
Kenyan Drake, Las Vegas Raiders
Without much fanfare, Kenyan Drake has performed as the RB11 in PPR and Half-PPR leagues over the past four weeks. That stretch coincides with the moment Jon Gruden departed the team and interim coach Rich Bisaccia took over. According to research done by Hayden Winks, Drake has the fourth-highest performance above expectation for all running backs over the last month. Click Diff column to sort by performance over expectation.
In Week 9, with both Josh Jacobs and Kenyan Drake healthy and playing together again, they fell near-even in snap share. Jacobs had more touches but Drake wound up with more yards. As the pass-catching back who also gets used in the red zone, Drake could easily stay ahead of Jacobs in fantasy value the rest of this year.
Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks
Reunited and it feels so good. Russell Wilson is the Peaches to Tyler Lockett's Herb, which is to say that they work well together. Lockett had two and a half rough games with Geno Smith at the helm before busting loose against Jacksonville. Coming off a bye, Wilson is ready to roll again and find his favorite receiver, who was averaging seven targets and five receptions per game when he started this year. Seattle's schedule is also favorable throughout the fantasy playoffs (Week 14-17) with matchups against the Texans, Rams, Bears, and Lions. Three of those teams are in the bottom half defensively against WR production and those same three teams are bottom-five in yards per target allowed. The other team is the Rams, if you hadn't guessed.
Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers
Tight ends often thrive when an offense has to compensate for lack of receiver depth. That's what is beginning to happen in Pittsburgh. JuJu Smith-Schuster has been out since Week 5 and isn't coming back. Chase Claypool got banged up this past game as well and Eric Ebron has missed the past two games. The Ebron injury and lack of true slot receiver has led rookie Pat Freiermuth to become a red-zone threat too. In the past three games since Smith-Schuster was out, Freiermuth is averaging 6.7 targets, 5.3 receptions, 48.3 yards per game with three touchdowns in the past two. He's practically a must-start against Detroit this coming week and could be in store for a strong finish.
Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears
Bad timing for Kmet to have his best game and get praised by his coach since the Bears are on bye in Week 10. It's still worth noting that Kmet caught six passes for 87 yards in Week 9, the yardage being a new career-high. Allen Robinson finally showed up, a little, but suffered a hamstring injury that puts his future availability in doubt. This receiving corps was thin already and now has even fewer options without their true alpha in A-Rob. More targets for Kmet would put him in the TE1 range already and then we have the Justin Fields breakout (?) game where he also notched a career-high with 291 passing yards. As if these factors weren't enough combined, let's sprinkle on a little bit of coach praise as the cherry on top to say that Kmet is becoming a strong add after the bye week.
Nagy: Cole Kmet has 'taken that next step' https://t.co/mjnsvk310m
— NBC Sports EDGE Football (@NBCSEdgeFB) November 10, 2021
Other Risers: Brandon Aiyuk, Hunter Renfrow, Rashod Bateman, Mark Ingram II, Javonte Williams
Fantasy Football Fallers for Week 10
D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers
Losing your starting quarterback, possibly for the rest of the season, usually isn't a good thing. In the case of Sam Darnold, it could be an exception.
Sam Darnold has thrown 160 passes over the past five games.
373 QB have thrown at least 160 passes in a season over the past decade. His stretch would rank:
372nd in Y/A
371st in TD%
370th in INT%It almost literally cannot get worse.
— Chris Towers In A Taylor Swift Shirt (@CTowersCBS) November 10, 2021
It would be a possible boost for Moore and the other receivers (Robby Anderson doesn't warrant mentioning by name anymore... oops) except that backup P.J. Walker has looked terrible in his brief appearances. The presumed XFL MVP hasn't transitioned well, completing less than half of his 71 passes in the NFL with one TD and five INT. Cam Newton's return may prove to be an upgrade beyond Week 10 but how much? He was released by the Pats and only caught on with a team now out of desperation.
The return of Christian McCaffrey should help the offense overall but it likely means the Panthers will give him and Chuba Hubbard 80% of the offensive touches, including receptions. It's not a great time to sell Moore on the trade market but it's a worse time to hold him on your roster.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
We keep pretending not to be worried about Mahomes but we have to be at this point. He's thrown a total of two touchdowns in the past three games combined. He finally ended his INT streak but that came with 166 passing yards, his lowest total ever in a full game. Nobody knows the exact reason other than Super Bowl hangover but it's clear something is off with him. Looking ahead, the Chiefs have a tough matchup with the Raiders, an average matchup with the Cowboys, then a bye week. Their fantasy playoff schedule includes the Raiders, Chargers, Steelers, and Bengals, all of whom are top-12 in limiting fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. Of course, you can't simply bench him unless you happen to have another top-10 QB to fill his spot but it must be acknowledged that this isn't the Mahomes we're used to.
Jarvis Landry, Cleveland Browns
I've been a Landry apologist for too long. He was ridiculed for failing to crack 1,000 yards despite leading the league with 112 receptions back in 2017. The low aDOT jokes were unwarranted and untrue. His usage in Cleveland was good enough to make him the WR12 in 2019 and WR36 in 2020 despite missing a game. With Odell Beckham Jr. out of town, he should be a starter for most fantasy leagues. But he really shouldn't. Not to take sides on the OBJ drama but Baker Mayfield isn't going to make any receiver into a stud and this offense averages the third-fewest pass attempts per game. He's averaged four touchdowns per season with Cleveland and hasn't found the end zone yet in 2021. The upside just isn't there so even when his stock should be rising, his value is falling.
Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles
How do you become a faller when you haven't played in three weeks? That's like getting fired on your day off.
Nothing has changed with Sanders' health and he could be be ready to return from IR any day. What has changed is that as soon as he was off the field, the Eagles gained a running game. Sanders wasn't terrible, averaging 4.8 yards per game, but he hadn't broken off his signature big runs and the offense wasn't moving forward. Now, Jordan Howard has put up 57 and 71 rushing yards in two games, both totals which Sanders hadn't topped since Week 1. A newfound commitment to the run could work in Sanders' favor if he just takes back the lead role but it also could be that coach Nick Sirianni prefers Howard's physical style over Sanders or this could just become a three-headed RBBC. Either way, Sanders' stock seems to fall as they have success on the ground without him.
Other Fallers: Jalen Hurts, DeAndre Hopkins, Marvin Jones, Alex Collins
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