RADIO
Bold predictions are always meant to be taken with a grain of salt but ideally, they are not a bunch of takes thrown like excrement at a wall with the hope of sticking.
These predictions come with backing to make them somewhat substantiated with the obvious caveat that it's playing into a range of outcomes that seems likely but is not guaranteed.
Most of all, it's just fun and should not change your process too much on a week-to-week basis. If you enjoy them or have questions, feel free to follow me on Twitter (@RotoSurgeon) for more!
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D.K. Metcalf makes up for early duds and finishes as WR1
This is DK week after back-to-back Lockett weeks. Not to dismiss Tyler Lockett for volatility (an absurd reason to fade him this offseason) but Metcalf is likely to see coverage from "CB1" Patrick Peterson who has shown his age for a few years now and may finally be disintegrating as 30-year-old cornerbacks do.
Lockett is likely to see coverage shaded towards him as Minnesota seeks to shut him out of the gameplan and leave Metcalf on an island despite Metcalf creaming the Vikings for 6 receptions, 93 yards, and 2 TD on 11 targets last season.
Dalvin Cook is trending towards sitting in Week 3 which would force the Vikings to pass significantly more to move chains, resulting in more time stoppages and plays overall. This game has the second-highest Over/Under (55) for a reason, excpect a shootout between two formerly elite defenses trying to stop higher-end passing attacks.
All 3 Jaguars' starting receivers hit double-digit PPR points
*Assuming Laviska Shenault (shoulder) is a full-go*
With an Over/Under of 52 and the Jaguars a heavy underdog versus an elite Arizona offense, expect another high-volume passing effort from Trevor Lawrence. The first-overall pick has attempted 84 passes through 2 games and may have to set a career-high this Sunday to keep up with Kyler Murray and Co.
While the overall effort by Jacksonville has been lackluster, there is a reason for hope. It is fair to consider the start of this season as an extended preseason for the rookie QB and head coach. Miscues can possibly be blamed on losing Chark for the entire preseason, Etienne just prior to the season's start, and Gardner Minshew taking QB1 snaps away from Lawrence until his trade.
Jacksonville will likely try to "establish" the run early but don't panic, that game plan will be abandoned shortly as long as Arizona's offensive room isn't hit by an asteroid pre-game. The leading receivers for Lawrence thus far have been the 3 WRs Marvin Jones (20), Laviska Shenault (17), and D.J. Chark (16). Next most? James Robinson (9). The WRs are rightfully leading this team in targets due to their talents and game-script necessitating deep shots to the likes of Jones and Chark. This will continue Sunday but likely more successfully with Laviska handling the short area and performing more successfully with more room to operate.
Daniel Jones outscores Josh Allen and Aaron Rodgers
Daniel Jones is not pulling a "Josh Allen" but he is becoming a valuable fantasy QB who can be confidently started more often than not.
Matchups are typically overrated but we are witnessing complete opposite ends of the spectrum here where Jones is facing one of the league's weakest defenses while Allen and Rodgers are seeing two of the toughest. Washington has the most talented defense on paper while the 49ers (particularly *in* SF) have a weird advantage over Rodgers and have since his rise to early superstardom. Maybe it's mental for him coming home, maybe it's the fact that SF typically has a strong defense and it's purely variance that Rodgers has not been capable of performing well there.
Due to his rushing, Daniel Jones' floor is higher and he seems to have taken somewhat of a step forward as a passer. He has yet to throw an interception while throwing much deeper than usual with 9.6 IAY/A compared to 7.6 through his first two seasons. His weapons are significantly improved with the addition of Kenny Golladay and a steadily improving Saquon Barkley and his confidence on the run is exemplary.
The Falcons have no semblance of pass rush or secondary which should make for at worst an even fight between New York's OL and weapons. Jones would have to do the bare minimum not to return a modicum of fantasy value while his ceiling is as one of the top QBs of the week.
Bills' defense wrecks Taylor Heinicke. Cam Newton signs next week
Taylor Heinicke is not an egregious starting QB but he does not seem like much more than a career backup/spot-starter. This matchup versus the Bills will end up a lot different than last week's Thursday Night Football against the Giants.
Buffalo upgraded their edge over the offseason and has looked fierce since the middle of 2020. Their defense ranks 2nd in the league through 2 weeks but that is absolutely bolstered by Tua Tagovailoa's injury last week. The Bills match up very well with Washington as they have a premier CB in Tre'Davious White to take on WR1 Terry McLaurin and LBs that can stymie their desire to play through RBs Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic.
Taylor Heinecke will face hell from Buffalo's front-seven and likely send this playoff-hopeful team to a 1-2 start that might cause a panic move to sign veteran Cam Newton who has a significant rapport with HC Ron Rivera and knows the system of OC Scott Turner.
*this assumes Ryan Fitzpatrick's hip isn't healing fast enough to return in the near future*
Kenyan Drake gets revenge against Miami and scores twice
Kenyan Drake didn't really leave Miami disgruntled or on bad terms but getting traded always stings. He has not had the opportunity to play them yet but now, with Josh Jacobs potentially out for a 2nd straight week, Drake has a chance to prove something.
Drake was actually inactive with Arizona for last season's matchup versus Miami but it seems like fate that he gets a chance to redeem himself the next year. He saw 7 rushes and 6 targets in Las Vegas's most recent game but was inefficient, particularly due to the matchup. Now, against a Miami team that surrenders their fair share of rushing yards (268 thus far), it should play into Drake's favor, especially against Jacoby Brissett and an offense that scored 0 last week.
Royce Freeman outscores Chuba Hubbard while CMC's out
Chuba Hubbard has not looked the same since his ridiculous 2019 season where he amassed over 2000 total yards and looked like one of college football's best RB prospects. His senior season was mired by COVID and a high-ankle sprain but hopes were he'd look healthy this year, that is just not the case. Hubbard appears slow and imbalanced.
Not to say Royce Freeman is some world-beater, but he profiles much better and should have an expanded role in Week 4 when the team preps both RBs to split while CMC sits out.
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