T.Y. Hilton 2021 Outlook: Tank Just About Empty
3 years agoI've always been a fan of T.Y. Hilton as a talent. However, we are years removed from the days of Hilton being a WR1/2 in fantasy football. Quarterback play matters and the reality is Hilton has never been good when receiving passes from quarterbacks not named Andrew Luck. Over his nine-year career, Hilton averaged 15.5 ppg with Luck and just 11.4 ppg without Luck. Andrew Luck is not coming back. Carson Wentz takes over as the Colts quarterback and is a bit of an unknown because we don't know whether we're getting the guy who was an MVP candidate in 2018 or the guy who got benched in 2020. It seems unlikely that Wentz is any better than Philip Rivers was last season. Hilton's yards per reception tumbled the past two seasons in a post-Andrew Luck world. He hauled in just 56 passes for 762 yards last season. With Michael Pittman entering his second season and a potentially healthy Parris Campbell, Hilton may very well be third in targets on a run first offense. At age 32, he's a low upside WR4 and for the price, I'd rather take a shot on someone younger with a higher ceiling.
8/30 Update: Hilton is going to miss the start of the season with a mysterious neck injury. The Colts do not believe it is season-ending. Spoiler alert: it's probably season, if not career ending. Hilton should not be selected in standard sized leagues.