Robert Tonyan 2021 Outlook: Can He Overcome Touchdown Regression?
4 years agoRobert Tonyan's career ascension during 2020 was both enormous and unexpected. The undrafted free agent only accumulated 21 targets, 14 receptions, 177 receiving yards, with two touchdowns during 2018-2019. But his output skyrocketed last season (59 targets/52 receptions/586 yards/11 touchdowns). This propelled him to TE5 in scoring while vaulting him firmly onto the fantasy landscape. His 11 touchdowns tied him for the league lead among tight ends, as he became one of just 12 different tight ends to attain a double-digit touchdown total since 2010. However, the touchdown-dependent nature of his production also creates a concern since only five of those players have reached 10+ touchdowns a second time during that span. But there are also indications that increased usage would allow Tonyan to remain a productive weapon in 2021, even if his touchdown total declines as expected. He led all tight ends in catch rate (89.7%) and that percentage was even greater in the red zone (90.9%). Tonyan also finished first among tight ends in Football Outsiders' DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average), and was second in DYAR (Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement). Uncertainty surrounding Tonyan's future with the Packers has dissipated after he signed a one-year contract in May. That ensures that he will operate as the primary tight end for Green Bay. He can also function as a low-end TE1 for fantasy managers, providing that he is performing with Aaron Rodgers as his signal-caller. The prospects for having Rodgers under center remain unclear, and it also uncertain when that situation will be resolved. Tonyan's current ADPs in best ball leagues (97/TE13) and dynasty startups drafts (112/TE14) will rise if Rodgers' return becomes a certainty.