John Brown 2021 Outlook: Primed To Exceed Expectations
4 years agoJohn Brown will resurface in Las Vegas, and his new environment presents an unobstructed path toward accumulating numbers that exceed the expectations of his 230+ ADP. The Raiders ranked seventh in passing last season (263.6 yards per game), but just 32nd in targets that were distributed to their wide receivers (45.5%). This occurred after Las Vegas had addressed the position during the 2020 NFL draft through the selections of Henry Ruggs III, (12th overall), and Bryan Edwards (81st overall). Ruggs' elite speed did not offset his deficiencies during a disappointing season - 43 targets (3.3 per game), 26 receptions (2.0 per game), 452 receiving yards (34.8 per game). Edwards was hampered by health issues (foot/ankle) which contributed to his minimal production (15 targets/11 receptions/193 yards). Nelson Agholor vaulted beyond both newcomers to become the Raiders' WR1 while accumulating 82 targets (5.1 per game), 896 receiving yards (56 per game), and eight touchdowns. Agholor's departure for New England provides Brown with the opportunity to seize a similar role, particularly if Ruggs and Edwards continue to underwhelm. Brown has surpassed 1,000 yards twice in his career, including the 1,060 (70.7 per game) that he attained in 2019. Brown also led Buffalo in targets (115/7.7 per game), and receptions (72/4.8 per game), that season, while finishing among the top seven in air yards (1,688), and percentage share of air yards (39.8%). His tenure as the Bills' WR1 ended with the arrival of Stefon Diggs. However, Brown could reclaim that distinction in a Las Vegas offense that needs reliable receiving weapons beyond Darren Waller. Brown remains available until Round 20 in both best ball and dynasty startup drafts. This makes him a viable option to target in both formats.