RADIO
For the second week running, we lost our over/under bet by a meaningless run in a blowout game being scored in the ninth inning. We did nail two of our three prop bets so overall, finished the day with a minimal loss (-0.05 units). But still not a profit so we'll aim to do better today.
Before we begin, I want to remind you that gambling should be fun. When the fun stops, stop. Never bet more than you're willing to lose. I'm no professional gambler, just a guy who loves the game and likes a bet. But I'll still be giving 100% in my research to make us some money. Everything I put here, I'll be backing myself so we're in this together. I'll also be keeping track of only my picks so I don't drag down the numbers from my colleagues.
We have been really increasing our sports betting content at RotoBaller, and this year will be no different. Tommy Bell (@BellRoto) will be handling things over in our premium offering. Steve Janik (@stevejanik6) will be carrying the free picks on during the week throughout the season with some help from yours truly. And Kipp Heisterman (@kipppsta) brings you the Monkey Knife Fight picks. Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
- Moneyline Record: 0-1 (-0.5 U)
- O/U Record: 1-5 (-4.13 U)
- Runline Record: 0-3 (-2.0 U)
- 1st 5 Innings Record: 1-2 (-0.63 U)
- Prop Record: 9-4 (+5.01 U)
- 2021 Total Record: 11-15 (-2.25 U)
Baltimore Orioles at Washington Nationals
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: BAL +140, WSH -150
BAL: Bruce Zimmermann | WSH: Jon Lester
The Orioles offense has been pretty solid against left-handed pitching (LHP) so far this year. They rank ninth in SLG (.436), ninth in ISO (.172) and tenth in wOBA (.327). They also have the eighth-lowest strikeout rate against lefties (21.5% K%). That was on evidence last night as the Orioles were shutout through eight innings against the Nationals (all RHP) before putting up two runs in the ninth against the sole LHP they faced.
The Orioles are sending their own southpaw to the mound in Zimmermann. After a rough start to the season (5.40 ERA from six starts), he was demoted to Triple-A but returned last week and in a long relief stint, he pitched 5.2 innings against the Yankees and gave up just one run on two hits and a walk with six strikeouts.
The Nationals haven't been as good against LHP themselves this year, ranking 15th in SLG (.404), 24th in ISO (.140) and seventh in wOBA (.333). That's largely in part due to their ability to get on base against LHP as they rank second in OBP vs lefties (.354). Zimmermann's 7.1% BB% this year is in the 66th percentile so the Nationals will need to rely on more than just free passes to put runs on the board.
Veteran pitcher Jon Lester has been a solid addition to their rotation this year with a 3.80 ERA from his four starts (21.1 IP). But he's been fortunate as evidenced by his 4.71 xERA, 4.62 xFIP and 5.04 SIERA. In his last start against the Cubs, Lester gave up five runs in 5.1 IP, serving up three homers. The Orioles have been much more adept in homering off of lefties with a home run in every 26.8 PA vs LHP as opposed to one in every 45.0 PA vs RHP
Pick: 1st 5 innings moneyline - Orioles (+135) 0.5 Units
Pick: 1st 5 innings runline - Orioles +0.5 (-110) 1 Unit
Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: SEA +180, SDP -215
SEA: Justus Sheffield | SDP: Ryan Weathers
The Padres hammered the Mariners 16-1 on Friday night and Seattle are now sending Sheffield and his 4.62 ERA to the mound. Sheffield has a lowly 17.7% K% to start the season and the Padres are now getting some of their best hitters back. Fernando Tatis Jr. homered in his first game back off the Covid restricted list on Wednesday and did so again last night while Eric Hosmer tallied two hits last night in his second game back.
The Mariners entered this season after being swept by the Tigers in a 3-game series in which they were outscored 15-3. The Padres look like running out the tandem of Weathers (1.37 ERA) and Dinelson Lamet (2.25 ERA) followed by their bullpen which has a league-leading 2.57 ERA.
Pick: Runline - Padres -1.5 (+108) 1 Unit
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