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Javier Baez 2021 Outlook: Poor 2020 Sign Of Things To Come
4 years agoJavier Baez posted a terrible season for the Cubs and fantasy managers alike in 2020, slashing just .203/.238/.360 with eight homers and three steals over 235 PAs. His plate discipline was horrible, with a 31.9 K% and 3 BB%, but both rates were in keeping with his career averages (28.4% and 4.7%, respectively). The difference was a .262 BABIP, 71 points below his career mark of .333. Unfortunately, this doesn't look like a case of regression bringing Baez back to fantasy relevance. He was never much of a line-drive hitter (18.4 LD% career, 18.9% last year), and he posts a double-digit IFFB% every other year (14.9% in 2020). His contact quality also took a hit, as his rate of Brls/BBE declined from 12.7% in 2019 to just 8.1% last year while he lost a full tick of average airborne exit velocity (94.9). Baez blames the lack of in-game video for his poor performance, but it may still be restricted in 2021. The 28-year-old is projected as Chicago's fifth hitter, a role that could hurt his counting stats as well. The fantasy community seems to be paying for a rebound at an ADP of 71, but there are far too many red flags here to justify that price.
