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Max Fried 2021 Player Outlook: Don't Overpay For Ace-Like Numbers
4 years agoAtlanta Braves starting pitcher Max Fried had a standout 2020 season, but a look under the hood reveals it wasn’t quite the step up from his 2019 as it might appear on the surface. His seven wins and 2.25 ERA in 11 starts were both fantasy ace-worthy, but Fried lowering his ERA from 4.02 in 2019 was in large part due to luck more than skills acquired, as he had a 4.32 SIERA and 4.05 xFIP in 2020. There was also a slight drop in his strikeout rate from 24.6% to 22.3% and an increase in his walk rate from 6.7% to 8.5%. The one thing Fried did considerably better in 2020 was limit hard contact, as he ranked in the 98th percentile in both exit velocity (83.4 mph) and hard-hit rate (23.8%), both of which he ranked in the bottom half in 2019. It will be easy to see Fried’s numbers and think he’s a fantasy ace moving forward, but his 2020 HR/FB rate of 4.9% isn’t sustainable across a full season, and his ERA will be closer to his 2019 mark. Fried is currently being ranked and drafted as a middling SP2 -- ADP of 68 as the 18th starting pitcher -- which is where he should return solid value for fantasy managers. Pitching for the Braves will offer plenty of chances to rack up wins, just don’t overreach expecting his 2020 numbers to be repeated.
