Thursday Night Football Matchups Analysis - Week 3

Congratulations everyone, we have made it through what should be the toughest injury week of the season *viciously knocks on wood*. Last week hurt many fantasy teams, however, we are only two weeks into the season and the end is nowhere in sight.

So with that, there are 14 weeks of football left to go. Fantasy managers know better than anyone how the season can change on a dime and is a marathon, not a sprint. There is plenty of time to recover and adapt to these new challenges from last week. 

This week more than ever, it will be crucial to start your week off with success.  Thankfully, the NFL is providing us with another great Thursday Matchup as Miami is traveling to Jacksonville to take on the surprising Jaguars. On paper, these teams might initially trigger a gag reflex for many football fans. However, this year, the matchup features two of the NFL’s best personalities going against wildly mediocre defenses. To help move on from the fantasy fatalities of last week, I am bringing you the Thursday Night Football preview for RotoBaller.

• Quarterback fantasy football rankings
• Running back fantasy football rankings
• Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
• Tight end fantasy football rankings
• Kicker fantasy football rankings
• FLEX fantasy football rankings
• Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
• Superflex fantasy football rankings
• IDP fantasy football rankings
• Dynasty fantasy football rankings

Quarterbacks

Jaguars

Gardner Minshew. I don’t know where to start. From his iconic personality to his quality football play, this season has quickly silenced any offseason doubt. I’ll be honest, I was skeptical that a sixth-round QB would work out. Usually, that is the case, but some guys just have IT and it appears Minshew is one of them. After the first two weeks, Minshew is the QB11 in four-point passing touchdown leagues. This ranking does not do his performances justice, as in these games they have upset the Colts and brought last year’s AFC’s finalist to the wire. Having a 91% completion rate on the season and passing for three touchdowns in each game shows he has a great fantasy floor.

Last week, Minshew did have a few turnovers, however, they were primarily a result of fighting to keep his team in the game and should not make any managers worry. This game offers a matchup where the Jaguars can dominate and win, further inspiring the team’s confidence. Thankfully, the Jaguars can dominate and still stay pass-happy due to the magical one on the other side of the ball.  While I do not believe Minshew has top-five potential on the week, he has proven himself to be steady and reliable for fantasy. He is an autostart in two QB leagues and should be started in most single QB leagues as well. He’s a hard guy not to like, and I’m sure he’ll put on a show in primetime this week.

Dolphins

Ryan Fitzpatrick is still around and fantasy relevant. The often-overlooked Fitzmagic has been very solid for fantasy for multiple weeks now. Going back to last season, Fitzpatrick has two games in the last eight games under 20 fantasy points. Arguably more impressive is that in that eight-game span, he has averaged 1.9 passing touchdowns and has passed for at least 245 yards in all but two of those games. It may not be pretty, but Fitzpatrick has a very steady fantasy floor.

In a game where Jacksonville will look to dominate Miami’s miserable defense, the game script should be in Fitzpatrick’s favor. The defensive matchups on both sides of the ball should allow for top-16 performances for both Minshew and Fitzpatrick. The biggest difference between the two is that Fitzpatrick, although riskier, has a ceiling of a top-five fantasy finish on the week. 

Wide Receivers

Jaguars

Minshew’s resurgence has brought some new fantasy names to the table. DJ Chark is the clear WR-one and has looked the part by making dominant catches. Unfortunately, Minshew has been spreading the ball and not giving Chark the volume for huge games. In the two games so far, Chark has caught all seven of his targets for 109 yards and a touchdown. In this matchup where I believe Fitzpatrick will keep the dolphins in the game, Chark should be locked in as a WR-two but will need more volume to get back to the big numbers he posted last year.

Who would have thought there would be more receivers in Jacksonville to talk about? Minshew has been spreading the ball around, creating the emergence of Laviska Shenault and the reemergence of Keelan Cole. On the season Cole is the WR16 and Shenault is the WR31. In comparison, Chark is the WR33. Although Chark has proven to be the guy, this is not Cole’s first time being fantasy relevant. In his rookie campaign, Cole displayed his ability with Blake Bortles, putting up four consecutive double-digit fantasy games. Since then Cole has been uninspiring but has seemed to have clicked with Minshew. Shenault is off to a very productive rookie season, catching six of his eight targets for 72 yards and a touchdown. However, I would not be looking to start him in any format, even in this juicy matchup.

Chark should be locked into most fantasy line-ups, however, I really like Keelan Cole to keep the ball rolling in this matchup. I’m not saying to start him over Chark, but if injuries left you scouring the wire, he might be the gem available in most leagues that can be plugged into your flex. 

Dolphins

Much like Fitzpatrick, the wide receivers have been flying relatively under the radar for fantasy. Although DeVante Parker has come down to earth a little, he has proved that his breakout last season was not a fluke. Parker has been fairly productive, racking up nine catches on 12 targets for 100 yards and a touchdown. Since the Dolphins’  first week of the season got out of hand quickly, it was very inspiring to see Parker with 8 targets and a touchdown last week. He is the undisputed WR1 on the team, and in a game where Fitzpatrick should be playing from behind, the volume should be there for Parker to have a big day. 

After tearing his Anterior Cruciate Ligament (ACL), Preston Williams has begun to find his footing on the NFL field. Although he passes the eye test, what worries me is that he only has a 25% catch rate so far this season. Fitzpatrick may not be the most accurate QB, but he is definitely better than that. The positives, however, is that he is tied with Parker in targets this season (12) and thankfully, in both games, Williams has averaged over 20 yards per catch. With this volume and athletic ability, he is always a threat for a big play. This matchup could be perfect for him to have a big game, however, I would not bank on that and would avoid him in fantasy for this week. 

Of the receivers in this game, I would rank them Parker, Chark, Cole, Williams, and Shenault. 

Running Backs

Jaguars

Who would have thought we would be talking about James Robinson this year? A twenty-two-year-old, undrafted free agent and Illinois State Alumni has made a name for himself in the football community. Last week, he broke out for 102 yards on 16 carries and a touchdown, along with three catches for 18 yards against a stingy Tennessee Titans Defense. What is most impressive to me, is not just his production, but how the team is using him. Robinson has 16 rushing attempts in both games and got some receiving work last game logging four targets. The increase in targets I find especially interesting, as Chris Thompson is a pass-catching specialist, and still, the team trusted Robinson with a few targets. Give any running back 16 rushing attempts and four targets against the Miami defense and you’ll have yourself an RB2. Robinson fits that bill and also has a good chance at finding the paydirt which could possibly boost him to a high-end RB2 on the week. Plug him into your lineups with confidence. 

Chris Thompson came back last week with two carries for seven yards and three catches for 20 yards and a touchdown. I’ll admit, going into the season I was very optimistic about Thompson’s usage. However, Robinson has been taking too much work away with virtually all the rushing work and one less target than Thompson on the year. I would not start Thompson in any format, including full PPR.

Dolphins

I know many of you will want to skip this section, however, I’m going to do my best to make this interesting. The Dolphins are the only team in the league to have three running backs with double-digit rushing attempts through the first two weeks. Yikes. This is not the kind of usage fantasy owners want to see when choosing who to play each week.

Going into the season, many people believed that Jordan Howard was going to be the lead back for this team. These people were correct if they were talking about red-zone work. Howard is the only back on the team to score a touchdown, making it clear he is the goal-line guy. To go along with his two touchdowns Howard has a 0.8 yards per carrying on 13 attempts. You can not rely on these touchdowns and he should be benched, if not dropped, in most leagues. The next predicted running back was Matt Breida. Breida has an impressive 4.9 yards per carrying, however, he only has 12 carries, two targets, and a fumble on the season. Please don’t play him.

I never thought I would be looking forward to discussing Myles Gaskin, but here we are. The clear lead back for this team has surprised many with his production over the first two weeks against very tough defenses. Gaskin has piled up 86 yards with a 5.4ypc along with 10 catches on 11 targets for 62 yards. The receiving work is great, as this is a team that should be down a lot and will be looking to pass. This week looks no different and Gaskin should continue to be “heavily” involved compared to the other backs. Gaskin should be a low-end RB-three this week, however, he might be worth a hold on your bench if the coaching staff is smart and starts to give him a bigger slice of the pie. 

Tight Ends

Jaguars

Last week I referenced Tyler Eifert’s 13 touchdown year in 2015 when discussing CJ Uzomah. This week I get to reference it again, only with Tyler Eifert himself. Over the offseason, there was chatter that Minshew had a rapport with the tight end, and we got to see some of it last week. Eifert finished the game with three catches on six targets for 36 yards and a touchdown. I would not be looking to play Eifert in any format, however, if he has another 6+ target game I’d start looking at him as a potential streaming option.

Dolphins

The popular breakout prediction of Mike Gesicki has so far been paid in spades. Through two weeks he has 11 receptions on 16 targets for 160 yards and a touchdown. He is the TE6 on the season, and this matchup should continue to provide the volume he needs to succeed. I would be happy starting him in most leagues, as I have him ranked as the TE8 on the week.

This rank is over Jonnu Smith and the tough matchups of both Noah Fant and Hayden Hurst. The best part about Gesicki is that Fitzpatrick provides him with the potential of finishing as the best tight end on any given week. 

Last week, I rebounded with both my picks coming through as the Bengals covered the spread and the over hit. This week, I look to do the same in a matchup where the lines seem fairly generous. Neither of these teams has the defensive ability to stifle one another, which should prepare us for another high scoring Thursday Nighter.

This is the first matchup where Miami could possibly win (the Patriots and the Bills are both very good teams), however, Jacksonville has played far superior teams a lot closer these previous two weeks. With this in mind, here are my picks of the week.

Jaguars -3 (1-1)

Over 48.0 (1-1)

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