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It's a Cup Series Saturday night at Richmond, as the second race of the first round of the NASCAR Playoffs gets set to begin.
The 16 playoff drivers make up the first 16 starting spots, which really limits some of the fantasy possibilities that might have existed before the postseason began. But we can still figure some things out!
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter if you have any NASCAR questions (or, really, any questions about any sport that isn't baseball)": @juscarts.
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NASCAR DFS Research for Federated Auto Parts 400
If you are not familiar, in this article I will highlight some helpful NASCAR data from my deep dive into the Premium Research Station. You can get full access to that Premium DFS Tool, and others including our Lineup Optimizer, with our NASCAR Premium Pass.
Top Fantasy Values At Richmond
Obviously, building a strong DFS lineup requires you to find some strong value, and one thing our Research Station can provide you is the tools needed to find those values.
One way to determine value -- projected fantasy points per $1,000 dollar salary. Basically, which drivers are projected to score the most fantasy points relative to their price. This can help you figure out how to maximize your projected fantasy points.
Looking at projected value on DraftKings and potential value plays, we see:
So, Cole Custer's not a great value and likely won't be as long as he's in the playoffs. But Ryan Newman, who starts 21st, is projected for 5.46 FP/$, a solid number. Newman has 20 top 10s, which is a big factor in his high projection. He's had top 10s in both of his races here for Roush Fenway.
The two other guys in this tier with projected FP/$ of at least five are Bubba Wallace and John Hunter Nemechek. Both guys start 30th or worse and have cars with more speed than others starting that far back. And Wallace in particular is a good short track racer, so he has a chance to be extremely productive in this one.
Richmond Driver Ratings
NASCAR's driver rating formula puts together a lot of factors to spit out a number that rates how a driver performed in a certain race.
Here are the Richmond ratings for the top FanDuel drivers this week:
The one thing that really sticks out is that Denny Hamlin has been good here, but not good to the level that Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, and Kyle Busch has been.
Oh, and definitely not to the Martin Truex Jr. level. This has been THE place for Truex lately. He won both races here last year. He's led at least 100 laps in six of the last seven Richmond races.
And he starts 14th, giving him some really solid place differential upside. It's wild that two drivers are priced above Truex in this race. I get it -- Harvick and Hamlin have ruled 2020, but Truex has just been so dominant here as of late that he's my favorite play on this slate.
Looking at drivers priced under $10,000, what stands out is Erik Jones, with an 87.3 recent rating here, which is especially interesting since Joe Gibbs Racing is so good here and he starts 17th. Ryan Newman also stands out in a positive way, continuing my "Newman's a good play tonight" argument.
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Track Correlation
A fun thing about the Research Station is that you can see how results at each track correlate to other tracks.
For Richmond, it's unique size (three-quarters mile) might make it seem like it wouldn't correlate much to other short tracks, and you'd be sort of right! Martinsville is at an 88.7 percent correlation, but the interesting thing is how Loudon can be used as a predictor here, as it's at 93.1 percent.
When we were in New Hampshire earlier this season, we saw Brad Keselowski win and lead 184 of 301 laps. Truex was third, not leading any laps but running a very solid race. Hamlin was second, by the way, and Logano fourth, and Harvick fifth. What a completely expected top five!
Some deeper lessons from that race: potential Richmond sleepers like Ryan Newman and Bubba Wallace were just okay, but Ricky Stenhouse Jr. finished 14th and had a solid day. Keep your eye on him on Saturday night.
Cole Custer also had a solid race. Look, I don't love his upside based on his starting position, but he was eighth at the track that correlates best to Richmond, so if you want a contrarian sleeper play, Custer is there and would make some sense!
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