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On Sunday, the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Texas Motor Speedway. or as I like to call it "that racetrack that's like 20 minutes from my apartment." The 1.5-mile track has been dominated by Kevin Harvick recently, as he's won three of the last five races here.
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Game 1: More or Less Fantasy Points (2/2): Denny Hamlin (less than 17.5) and Martin Truex Jr. (more than 16.5)
So, for Hamlin to hit the over, he'd need to either finish third without leading laps, or would need to lead 10 laps for every position under third he finishes.
To get a sense of how likely that is, I looked back at what Hamlin has done at 1.5-mile tracks this season. At Vegas, he didn't lead a lap. In the two Charlotte races, he didn't lead a lap. At Atlanta, he didn't lead a lap. At Kentucky...yep, you guessed it, no laps led.
He did win at Homestead while leading 137 laps, but that's a much different kind of 1.5-mile track. Based on this year's production, I can't get behind Hamlin outscoring this mark. This has been the one track type that's given him trouble in 2020, and I think I'm leaning on the side of "that struggle continues" and not "Hamlin becomes dominant at, like, every kind of race track." Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe Hamlin conquers the intermediate tracks going forward and winds up driving away with the 2020 championship. We'll see.
As for Truex, he's led laps at most of the 1.5-mile tracks this season and is coming off a second-place run at Kentucky. I expect big things out of Truex in this race, as he's finished in the top 10 in all the races I mentioned above for Hamlin except for Las Vegas, where he finished 20th. This is a very good track type for this 19 car.
It's also worth mentioning that Truex seems to have mostly recovered from some accident-related early-season struggles. A wreck at Indianapolis recently didn't help things, but in the three other races since Talladega, he's got three top 10s, including a second at Kentucky in the last race out, when he led 57 laps.
Game 2: Rapidfire (2/2): Kyle Busch (+1.5) over Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr. (+1.5) over Denny Hamlin
Am I picking against Kevin Harvick at Texas???
Yes, I am.
Nothing against Harvick, who's dominated at this track recently, but Busch isn't exactly a slouch here, with two Texas wins since 2016. Sure, he's had three finishes outside of the top 10 since then as well, but...hey, sometimes you want to go with your gut, and my gut says that Busch -- who put up some strong performances on Saturday in some lower series races here -- is due for a strong performance.
As for Harvick, 2020 has been much kinder to him than it's been to Busch, as Harvick is the current points leader while Busch sits in 11th place. Four top fives in a row for Harvick is another plus for him, as is the fact that he's run well on this track type all year.
Maybe this case for Kyle Busch this week is a little illogical when you factor in how Harvick's been running. But I like that Busch gets the 1.5 point boost, and I like that he's starting a row ahead of Harvick, as it gives him a better chance for some early-race laps led.
As for Truex and Hamlin, you can basically scroll up to my analysis of the other prop bet to see why I'm going with Truex. He's been a strong producer on this type of track this year while Hamlin, despite four victories, hasn't had much luck on this exact type of track. Let's keep rolling with Truex.
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