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On Sunday, the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Atlanta Motor Speedway for the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500. Normally, that means it's the most exciting time of the year -- commemorative NASCAR cups at QuikTrip SZN! -- but sadly I didn't see any of those cups when I was at QuikTrip yesterday. Bummer!
Anyway, Atlanta's a 1.5-miler that's hosted races since 1960 and in 1997 moved to its current quad-oval design. The track has hosted some exciting races, but has also lost a lot of its luster over the years, to the point that many NASCAR fans online have advocated for the series to move on from the track.
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter if you have any NASCAR questions (or, really, any questions about any sport that isn't baseball)" @juscarts.
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NASCAR DFS Research for Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500
If you are not familiar, in this article I will highlight some helpful NASCAR data from my deep dive into the Premium Research Station. You can get full access to that Premium DFS Tool, and others including our Lineup Optimizer, with our NASCAR Premium Pass.
Be sure to also check out all of our other weekly NASCAR DFS articles and analysis to help you set your optimal DFS lineups. You can also check out our YouTube video:
Kevin Harvick's Projected DraftKings Points Are Wild
Let's look at Harvick's projected fantasy points versus the other top-priced drivers on DraftKings:
There's a reason Harvick's going to end up with the highest ownership percentage of all drivers while being the most expensive driver: he performs really well at Atlanta, especially since moving to Stewart Haas Racing.
After finishing 19th in his first race here for this team, Harvick's had finishes of second, sixth, ninth, first, and fourth. Atlanta was the site of Happy's first Cup Series win back in 2001, but he really struggled for awhile here, and from 2002 to 2007 didn't have a finish better than 15th. But that's all behind him, and recent history says this is back to being one of Harvick's best tracks.
Harvick rolls off the grid ninth and should be able to pretty swiftly move up into the top five and will be fighting for the win by the end of the race.
Erik Jones Is Undervalued
For the second race in a row, I'm writing about Erik Jones. Why? Because his track history here and his projected value:
Jones hasn't finished worse than 14th here, and that 2017 race was with Furniture Row, with Jones driving a second car for them that wasn't quite as strong as the team's main 78 car.
In two races with the main Gibbs team, he's placed 11th and seventh. He's never even been lower than 24th at any point during a race here, and even in 2017 ran top-10 at mid-race. Jones has yet to lead a lap at the track and has just five fastest laps, but this 20 car continues to improve with Jones behind the wheel for his third season with the team. He's got four top-10 finishes in 2020, including a pair of top-fives since NASCAR's return.
Jones starts 14th on Sunday. There's some room for place differential points to come into play here if he can get up and run consistently in the top 10. He's one of my favorite mid-priced drivers on this slate.
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Not Very Many Cautions Fly Here
On average, 11.6 percent of this race is run under caution. Only three tracks average a lower percentage.
That should make for a race full of long green flag runs, as Atlanta ranks sixth in green glaf run percentage.
Based on speed rankings in 2020, long runs stand to benefit some drivers more than others.
Chase Elliott leads the series in late run speed this year, and Jimmie Johnson ranks sixth with William Byron eighth. But their teammate Alex Bowman? Way back in 16th, despite the fact that he is third in overall green flag speed. The 88 car seems to have had some issues maintaining that speed late into runs.
Speaking of green flag speed, Elliott leads in that too, and all the Hendrick cars are in the top eight. This team has found some things.
But not every Chevy team has that same speed. For green flag speed, Chip Ganassi ranks 13th (Kurt Busch) and 18th (Matt Kenseth). For Richard Childress, Austin Dillon is 16th and Tyler Reddick is 19th. The speed that Hendrick has found doesn't really equate to speed for the entirety of the Chevy teams.
Another driver who has struggled to find speed is Cole Custer. His early run speed ranks 28th and late run speed ranks 27th, while the other Stewart Haas cars rank 10th, 12th, and 21st in late run speed.
If this is setting up to be a race free of accidents, I'd want to fade guys like Custer, Kenseth, Christopher Bell, and the JTG-Daugherty team of Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Ryan Preece.
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