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J.D. Davis 2020 Outlook: A Late-Round Statcast Darling
5 years agoJ.D. Davis did everything the Mets and fantasy owners could have asked of him in 2019: He hit .307 with 22 home runs, scored 65 runs, drove in 57 RBI, and even threw in 3 bases without being caught. While Davis started 2018 without a consistent role, he clearly earned his spot as an everyday starter, and there’s no reason to believe he won’t be given that opportunity in 2019. Beyond the fantasy stat line, Davis improved almost every single one of his peripheral stats. He was more selective at the plate as he dropped his O-Swing rate from a below-average 32.4% to an above-average 27.9% and his overall swing rate from 50.1% to 48.8%. Likewise, when Davis decided to swing, he made contact more consistently by dropping his SwSt rate to 12.4%. The batted-ball data shows a number of other improvements. Davis improved his GB/FB ratio and hit more balls with authority while relying on pull power less often. The result was a .383 xwOBA that was good enough for 23rd on the leaderboard. Among full-time starters, Davis will have the best xwOBA versus ADP (173) of any player in the draft. Given the Mets’ current roster construction, expect Davis to get 150 starts while providing a .285 BA, 28 HR, 85 R, 95 RBI, and 4 SB.
