Jack Flaherty 2020 Outlook: Making His Case For the First Tier
5 years agoSt. Louis Cardinal Jack Flaherty finished fourth in NL Cy Young voting in 2019, going 11-8 with 231 strikeouts and a 2.75 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 196.1 innings; but while his final line was undoubtedly fantastic, it still gives short-shrift to just how good Flaherty was over the course of the second half. After struggling through his first 17 starts – running a 4.90 ERA and 1.29 WHIP over 90 innings – Flaherty went supernova in his final 16 starts, posting a 0.93 ERA and 0.70 WHIP over 106.1 innings. While Flaherty had a decent 26.8% K-rate in the first half, that number jumped to 33.3% over the second half, with the second-year pitcher finishing the season with a 29.9% K-rate that was the 11th best in baseball. Flaherty got to be such a master of whiffery on the strength of one of baseball’s nastiest sliders – with a 16.3 pVal that was the sixth-highest among qualified starters – as well as adding a tick to his fastball velocity from the year before. He’ll come back to earth a little from the insane numbers he put up over the second half, but regardless, Flaherty should remain a premium source of strikeouts and ratios. The worst thing about the young Cardinal in 2020 might be that you won’t be getting any sort of discount on value, as the 24-year-old currently holds a 24 ADP in all NFBC leagues. That makes him the seventh pitcher being taken, with he and Mike Clevinger marking the start of the second tier. Given that Flaherty hasn’t yet put together a full season of dominance, it might be prudent to diversify your total fantasy portfolio with a similarly priced pitcher – Clevinger, Shane Bieber, Stephen Strasberg, and Blake Snell are the closest four in ADP – but after the trio of Cole, Scherzer, and Verlander, Flaherty’s upside is to be the best of the rest.