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Brandon Workman 2020 Outlook: Nice Late Target Despite Likely Regression
5 years agoRed Sox relief pitcher Brandon Workman grew into the closer’s role in 2019 and offers excellent value in 2020 drafts, but he’s not without his fleas. While Workman secured 10 wins and 16 saves with 104 strikeouts and a pristine 1.88 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 71 ⅔ IP, it was built around a 15.7% walk rate, a .209 BABIP and just one homer allowed throughout the year. A career-low 28.6% fly-ball rate helped him be the only qualified reliever to allow less than two homers throughout the season, as well as allowing just one barrel all season long, but the subsequent 51.1% groundball rate doesn’t jive with the low BABIP. In fact, it’s the lowest BABIP of any qualified reliever with a groundball rate above 50% and the fourth-lowest overall. These extremes helped him be one of three relievers to post 100 strikeouts with an ERA below 2.00, but he’s a clear-cut regression candidate. Still, the price is right for an arm with the inside track at the ninth that features 100-strikeout potential and can limit homers. His early NFBC ADP sits around 200, meaning he can be had for nearly nothing and is a premier upside pick towards the end of drafts.
