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Aaron Judge 2020 Outlook: Huge Power Upside At Reasonable Cost
5 years agoAaron Judge took the league by storm in 2017 blasting 52 homers en route to AL Rookie of the Year honors. Injuries have limited Judge over the last two seasons, he played just 112 games in 2018 and 102 games last year while hitting just 27 homers each season. When healthy, Judge is one of the best hitters in the game, pure and simple. His average exit velocity of 95.1 MPH since 2017 is by far the best in the Majors in that span. He was second in the Majors last season with a 57.1 percent hard-hit rate and he was sixth in barrel rate. When he’s not blistering baseballs, Judge is usually walking or striking out. His 14.3 percent walk rate was top-15 in baseball but he also strikes out a ton with a 31.5 K% thanks to his massive strike zone. Judge is a large man, at 6 feet 7 inches he may always be slightly more injury-prone unless he becomes a full-time DH, which is unlikely given how good Judge is defensively. If Judge were guaranteed a full season he’d be an easy first-rounder. He should produce 200 runs-plus-RBI and is one of few players with 50 homer upside. His ADP in the late twenties is a reasonable price to pay for someone with Judge’s fantasy ceiling.
