Trevor Bauer 2020 Outlook: Still A Talented Pitcher Despite 2019 Misadventures
5 years agoTrevor Bauer followed up a stellar 2018 campaign with a largely pedestrian 2019 (4.48 ERA, 4.33 xFIP in 213 IP) that was perhaps most notable for a tantrum that forced a trade to Cincinnati. The ballpark switch isn't great news for fantasy owners, but there's still a lot to like here. Bauer continued to pile up the strikeouts (27.8 K%) without walking too many guys (9 BB%) for a rock-solid 18.8 K-BB%. The reason why is simple: Bauer has electric stuff that's seemingly getting better. For instance, his four-seam baseball spun more in 2019 (2,415 RPM) than 2018 (2,324), plus more of that spin contributed to pitch movement (89.1% Active Spin vs. 85.3%). Bauer also eclipsed the 200 inning plateau in 2019, a claim that only 15 MLB hurlers can make. Many of Bauer's problems last year boil down to pitch mix choices, such as throwing more cutters (16.5% vs. 10.1% in 2018) at the expense of curves (26.7% to 19.8%). Both pitches fared similarly in the strikeout department (13.9 vs. 12.9 SwStr%), but his curve was much better on balls in play (.168/.193/.277 line against vs. .323/.404/.462). Assuming he can get his pitch mix ironed out, you get a strikeout artist who makes positive contributions in ERA and doesn't leave the game after five innings. That skill set comes at a premium in 2019, which is why his NFBC ADP sits at 84.83.