Rest of Season Third Base Rankings - May Update

Now that we are midway through May, it's a perfect time to update our Rest-of-Season mixed rankings and provide some analysis. RotoBaller writers Nick Mariano, Pierre Camus, Bill Dubiel and Scott Engel want you to crush the competition and know that rankings can't end on draft day.

Third base has been hit-and-miss in the early goings. A lot of the predictable studs are being studly, a few surprises have risen through the ranks. I'm most fascinated by some of the guys who were drafted early but who have severely underachieved--is a bounce-back in store or is this what 2019 will look like for them?

Check out our fantasy baseball rankings dashboard for the latest and greatest ranks at any time. Also, you can read our analysis on the other positions here: first base, second base, shortstop, outfield, starting pitcher, and relief pitcher.

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Third Base Tiered Ranks - 5x5 Mixed Leagues (May)

In case you missed it, our very own "Big Pick Nick" Mariano was recently named the #1 overall most accurate industry expert ranker for the 2018 season. You can see his secret sauce below! Additionally, industry legend Scott Engel recently joined the RotoBaller team and provides his insights as well. Scott is an FSWA Hall Of Famer and award winner.

Rankings Analysis - Top Tiers

Tier One

The most fascinating case in all of third base is, to me, Jose Ramirez. The fantasy monster form 2018 has been a shadow of his former self; as of this writing he is under the Mendoza Line, with a batting average sitting at .195. The ten steals he's contributed are all well and good, but it's impossible not to be disappointed given that you likely used your first pick or paid absolute top-dollar for the 39/34 fantasy juggernaut from a year ago. At just 26, it's not like there is any real decline here. I'll not speculate about an injury hampering him either (that's been done plenty). Pierre and I believe strongly in a bounce-back as the season wears on, and I'll stand by that ranking as long as Ramirez stays healthy. He didn't all of a sudden get worse after two MVP-level seasons.

Tier Two

Most of the usual suspects here as well. Vlad Guerrero, Jr. is, shockingly, not setting the world on fire so far. Insane that a 20-year-old is struggling a bit against major league pitching, I know. This is very much a case of sticking with a stud, because that's very much what Vladito is. He just hit two bombs in one game this week, and I am very confident (more so than my colleagues) that he will figure things out sooner rather than later. He's been called up, he's entrenched in the lineup--the breakout is coming.

Kris Bryant is somewhat quietly having a really nice season. He hasn't come close to his MVP season from a couple years ago, but he's making some legitimate strides in improving as an overall hitter. His walk rate is currently the highest of his career (15.6%) and at the same time he's got his strikeout rate down to just 17.2%, another career best. One hot streak could have Bryant back in the MVP discussion again, but the very real improvements he's showing are why I have so much optimism for the rest of the season.

Tier Three

I'm apparently still low on Joey Gallo, and perhaps I shouldn't be. The same reasons I believe Kris Bryant is showing some real, sustainable improvement apply to Gallo, as Kyle Glaser notes here:

I have been a big Debbie Downer on Gallo's profile as a hitter thus far in his career--tons of strikeouts, the whole "more homers than singles" thing, all of that. My current ranking stands as a significant improvement over where I had him in the preseason, and when we check back in again I'll likely have him up higher if he continues to prove he's more patient at the plate. That power certainly isn't going anywhere...

Rankings Analysis - Middle Tiers

Tier Four (Note - rankings were published prior to the news that Andujar's season is over)

Boy, I really wish Wil Myers would turn things around but it's simply not looking great for him. In the two seasons in which Myers has played at least 155 games, he turned in a 28/28 season and a 30/20 campaign. The gifts have always been there for the former blue-chip prospect. So far in 2019 health hasn't been Myers' biggest issue--it's been contact. The 28-year-old is currently posting the worst swinging-strike percentage of his career by far (14.8%) which has led to a career-worst 36.8% strikeout rate. Myers is trending in the wrong direction this year, and if his .342 BABIP doesn't hold we may not have even seen the worst of it yet.

Tier Five

I think my colleagues are sleeping on Carlos Santana so far in 2019. Santana has always been an OBP machine, but he's never emerged as a true star thanks to a typically low batting average. A large piece of that may have to do with his BABIP, which is consistently, remarkably low. His career average sits at .266, and last year was as low as .231. That number is starting to normalize a bit (.301), and his batting average has risen to a healthy .271. I'm trusting that the shift back to the comfy confines of Cleveland, where he spent all of his early career, is enough to revitalize this corner infielder. The 25+ bombs certainly won't hurt either.

Rankings Analysis - Lower Tiers

Tier Six

Michael Chavis has been a revelation for the Red Sox offense since his call-up. In just 22 games, Chavis has smacked seven homers, driven in 21 runs, scored 15 times and is hitting a robust .296. That power may very well be real, as he's posted pretty good ISO marks at every stop in the minors, and it never hurts to have that big old monster in left field to bang balls off of. I expect some regression in just about every metric, particularly his stellar current walk rate (14.6%), but I expect Chavis to remain in the fantasy mix as long as he's got a roster spot.

Tier Seven

Tommy La Stella is one of the bigger surprises of this entire season, and I'm not sure I've got a great explanation as to why. The counting stats speak for themselves--11 homers already, 24 runs, 25 RBI and a .301 batting average that is 30 points higher than his career average. The peripheral stats are completely confounding though; La Stella has cut his strikeout rate by more than half since last year to an absurd 6.0%, and he is very nearly DOUBLING his slugging percentage from 2018. In fact, La Stella's current .245 BABIP indicates that he's been unlucky this year, and that he might be capable of hitting even better than he already is. I think it's fair to assume he'll regress closer to the mean over the course of the season, but this is very much a situation where I'm holding on and enjoying the ride while it's happening.

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