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Jake Arrieta 2019 Outlook: Strikeout Regression Dings Value
6 years agoJake Arrieta’s first year with the Phillies in 2018 was somewhat of a disappointment. He was durable, starting at least 30 games for the fourth straight season and throwing 172.2 innings. However, those innings only came with a 3.96 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, a 10-11 record, and, most concerning, a 7.19 K/9 (after posting 8.71 in 2017). Although Arrieta's fastball velocity and ground-ball rate were better in 2018 (93.0 MPH, 51.6%) than 2017 (92.1 MPH, 45.0%), they remained below the marks he put up during his Cy Young-winning 2015 campaign (94.6, 56.2%), and the righty's ERA has now risen with every season since he won the award. Entering 2019, the Phillies’ improved offense could lead to more wins for Arrieta, but the downward trend he's been on since 2015 cannot be overlooked. The sudden loss of strikeouts is very worrying no matter how hard Arrieta threw last year, especially as he turns 33 in March. A RotoBaller SP ranking of 48 places Arrieta as a mid-to-back-end rotation piece in standard leagues, and he shouldn't be drafted any earlier than his current ADP of 211.
