RADIO
Welcome back to the second installment of the PGA DFS: Vegas Report. Kevin Na was a runaway winner at the Military Tribute at the Greenbrier, shooting a Sunday 64 en route to a five-shot victory and his first PGA Tour title since 2011. Russell Henley, our pick to win, led our selections with a 10th place result, and J.J. Spaun, who finished as our top sleeper choice, closed the tournament in a share of 13th.
Most DFS and gambling weeks are not defined by successfully hitting an outright winner. Instead, they tend to be defined by the propensity to select and correctly distinguish head-to-head edges. While you are never going to win a GPP tournament without correctly identifying the winner, your week will always be judged by your capacity to find small edges from one player over another and these small advantages are what ends up making us profitable in cash-games and things of that nature.
It is the same concept when it comes to betting on golf. You are trying to hit as many outright winners as you can, but because it is so hard to do so, your goal is to use your head-to-head selections as the meat and potatoes of your betting card, and they should ultimately be what decides a winning week. Our recommendation of C.T. Pan +105 over Bill Haas ended up closing Thursday morning with Pan as the favorite at -120, which goes to show that you need to try and always get the best value you can. Thankfully, though, no matter what price you got the line at, we had a no stress weekend with Haas missing the cut and Pan finishing in a share of 39th place. With the John Deere Classic on tap for this week, let's take a look at value plays we will be targeting.
For a full review of the DraftKings PGA Slate this weekend, check out Seth Finklestein's column reviewing picks at every price point.
And for a more in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings and Fanduel plays, check out Joe Nicely's column providing the best fits for the week's course.
Editor's Note: Our friends at Fantasy National have built some incredible DFS Golf lineup tools including a Lineup Optimizer, Stat Engine, Ownership Projections and Course Breakdowns. They are by far the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry. Seriously. You can read all about them here and see screenshots.
2018 John Deere Classic - TPC Deere Run - 7,268 Yards - Par 71 Greens: Bentgrass
TPC Deere Run provides one of the easier tests on tour. While it only ranked 38th out of 50th for difficulty in 2017, it is astonishing to think that 12 courses played easier than this one. Bryson DeChambeau captured his first PGA title out here in 2017, finishing at 18-under par, and Ryan Moore took home the 2016 title at 22-under par.
Like last week, we will once again be looking for player's that can rack up birdies and eagles in bunches. Fairways are easily accessible, and historically, players have hit over 72 percent of their drives in the short grass. Because of the straightforward nature of most approach shots, over 70 percent of greens in regulation are hit here at the John Deere Classic, too. The TPC Deere Run greens are bentgrass, so it's helpful to identify players that do well on that putting surface.
Pick to Win
Joaquin Niemann (18/1, DK Price $10,400, FD Price $11,400)
Joaquin Niemann, the 19-year-old prodigy out of Chile, comes into the John Deere Classic at an unbelievable 18/1 outright price and even as low as 16/1 now in some markets. And while his price may seem outrageous on the surface, I am not so sure it actually is. Niemann has quickly transformed himself into a star on the PGA Tour. In his last five events, Niemann has made four of five cuts, which includes three top-eight finishes and an additional T17 showing. The question isn't if the young Chilean will win on tour, but instead, when will he finally do so?
In his last 24 rounds compared to the field, Niemann ranks first in birdies or better gained and second in strokes gained approach. TPC Deere Run plays as a wedge and putting contest. Niemann isn't one of the better putters on tour, but with his ability to stick his irons in close and string together a run of birdies, he has all the tools necessary to make Illinois the location of his first PGA Tour title. Niemann comes in as the fourth most expensive player on DraftKings, sixth on Fanduel and fourth in the betting market.
Sleepers
Chesson Hadley (30/1, DK Price $9,500, FD Price $10,600)
At 30/1, Chesson Hadley is not your prototypical sleeper selection, but with Niemann as my pick to win, Hadley will have to slide into my sleeper list. I am not usually a big proponent of grabbing two players inside of the top 10 of the betting market. Too much betting capital has to be invested, and it massively limits your maneuverability on the number of players you can bet. But with the John Deere Classic consistently producing top-end players capturing the title, I think this is a week to zone in on more of the quality selections.
Hadley has not been great here at TPC Deere Run in his career and has only made one of three career cuts, but I think anything he has done in the past almost needs to be thrown out. Hadley isn't the same player as he used to be and that is evident by his outright and DFS numbers. Hadley comes into the week ranked eighth in the betting market, eighth on DraftKings and seventh on Fanduel. In his last 24 rounds compared to the field, he ranks in the top 15 in strokes gained approach, strokes gained-putting, birdies or better gained and ball striking. You could make the argument that most betting cards should start with Hadley, but I will be pairing Hadley and Niemann together for both DFS lineups and outright bets.
Chris Kirk (55/1, DK Price $8,900, FD Price $10,400)
Chris Kirk is going to be extremely popular this week in the DFS and betting markets. He has made six consecutive cuts entering the John Deere Classic, including three top-11 finishes. However, his 55/1 outright number, even though it is more or less in line with his DraftKings and Fanduel price, is much more intriguing than taking him in a GPP tournament. The reason for this is simple. Kirk comes into the week as the ninth most expensive player on Fanduel and the 12th highest priced player on DraftKings. At nearly a 20 percent projected ownership, Kirk will need to deliver a top-10 finish to make his price worth it, and even then, how much ground are you making up on the field?
From an outright perspective, Kirk becomes an entirely different play. We don't need to worry about his ownership, and we don't have to care about anything other than trying to get a win. Kirk's previous four PGA Tour victories have come at similar types of birdie tracks, with the winning score ranging from 22-under par to 12-under par. Kirk is ranked ninth on the season in strokes gained approach, and if he can get hot with his putter, he makes for an intriguing outright selection.
Scott Piercy (60/1, DK Price $8,300, FD Price $9,400)
Scott Piercy is one of my favorite plays from both a DFS and outright betting position. Piercy is projected to be under five percent owned on DraftKings and also appears to be getting overlooked in the outright market. He comes into the week with no top-30 finishes in his last six tournaments, but TPC Deere Run appears to be tailor-made for him.
In Piercy's last 50 rounds compared to the field, he ranks first in strokes gained approach and fifth in proximity from 125 to 150 yards, which should be one of the most prominent approach shot ranges at TPC Deere Run. Piercy's biggest downfall in his career has been his putter, but at a course that he should see a plethora of birdie opportunities at, a couple of hot putting rounds could put Piercy right near the top of the leaderboard.
Bonus Bomb
Bronson Burgoon (90/1, DK Price $7,500, FD Price $8,000)
90/1 isn't typically a bomb selection, but with the John Deere Classic failing to produce any longshot winners here as of late, this is the deepest I am going on my card. Burgoon comes into the week ranked 284th in the world, but after back-to-back top-30 finishes, he seems to be peaking for the John Deere Classic.
Burgoon's share of 30th at last week's Military Tribute at the Greenbrier is a bit deceiving. The 31-year-old entered the final round at 10-under par and within striking distance of the title, but after a faulty four-over 74, he platooned down the leaderboard on Sunday. The former Texas A&M product is ranked in the top 25 compared to the field in strokes gained approach, birdies or better gained, proximity from 125 to 150 yards and three-putt avoidance in his last 24 rounds. Burgoon is the 33rd most expensive player on DraftKings and 34th overall in the betting market but is only the 54th highest priced player on Fanduel.
Head-to-Head Play of the Week
Kevin Tway +145 over Chez Reavie -165
Kevin Tway $8,000 price tag on DraftKings vs. Chez Reavie $7,500 price tag
Kevin Tway 9.2 percent projected ownership vs. Chez Reavie 12.8 percent projected ownership
I am not necessarily opposing Chez Reavie in this matchup because I think he has no chance to succeed. In all honesty, I viewed Reavie as having value at his 70/1 outright number and do believe there is a chance that the short-hitting American could find TPC Deere Run to be a nice bounce-back spot. But value is value, and I am not going to pass on a situation where the player that I think should be the favorite is only being given a 40 percent implied probability of winning the matchup.
Tway comes in at $500 more expensive than Reavie on DraftKings and $100 higher priced on Fanduel, which may be why we see Reavie at a 3.5 percent higher projected ownership than Tway. People are looking for the reduction in price at this range, and Reavie fits the mold. And that may be fine for anyone looking to find a boom-or-bust type option at $8,000 or below, but head-to-head matchups are not always about finding players you think will win the tournament. It is more about finding consistency and value compared to the other person in the matchup.
In Tway's last 24 rounds compared to the field, he ranks 16th in birdies or better gained, 18th in three-putt avoidance and 43rd in strokes gained approach. Reavie in those exact statistics grades out 65th in birdies or better gained, 62nd in three-putt avoidance and 58th in strokes gained approach. In my opinion, Tway should be a very slight favorite over Reavie, and I think we are getting over 10 percent value of where the number should be. I'd anticipate that this line will start to shift towards the underdog in the upcoming day, so if you want to bet it, be sure to jump on it as soon as you can!
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