Are You For Real? Surprising SP Starts (Week 13)

Welcome to our surprising starts series. Every week we’ll be going over a few surprising starting pitcher performances around the majors to determine whether these starts were smoke and mirrors or something more.

There weren't many hot young prospects to look at this week, at least none that hadn't already been covered in previous iterations of this article. That means we got to dive into some more unheralded pitchers, and each of the pitchers in this week's article are owned in under 10% of Yahoo leagues as of writing this.

This week we saw Trevor Richards go into Coors Field and hold the Rockies to two runs, Anthony DeSclafani allow exactly two runs for the third straight start, and Andrew Suarez take advantage of the best two-start matchups ever.

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Real Deal or Mirage?

Trevor Richards, Miami Marlins

2018 Stats (prior to this start): 38 IP, 5.45 ERA, 4.37 FIP, 1.8 K/BB ratio
06/23 @ COL: 6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 8 K

Any time a pitcher performs well in Coors it’s worthy of our attention, especially the Rockies were averaged 6.57 runs per game this week with in their seven home games. Richards gets it done with a three pitch mix, a 91.8 MPH four-seamer, an 83.6 MPH changeup, and an 80.7 MPH curveball. His changeup was the best pitch in this start, as eight of his 15 swinging strikes came from the changeup. Richards’ changeup has been his best pitch all season. Batters are hitting .189 with a .113 ISO against the changeup with a 24.5% whiff rate. Since Richards’ changeup was so good, we’ll look at a few from Saturday.

That is certified filth. It's easy to see why the Rockies hitters struggled with the changeup so badly. The pitch has late movement in on righties and away from lefties, and hitters from both sides struggle with it equally. Richards’ changeup, though not as hard nor having as much movement, is reminiscent of Domingo German’s changeup. Both have significantly above average spin (Richards: 2176 RPM, German: 2379 RPM, League Average: 1746 RPM) and the left-to-right movement to induce whiffs. Here’s a Statcast chart of changeup whiff rate (y axis) and spin rate (x axis).

He’s towards the top in both metrics, and regardless of the other problems Richards has had in the majors his changeup passes both the eye test and the numbers test. In starts where Richards threw his changeup more than 20% of the time he has a 3.73 ERA and a 10.1 K/9 in 24.1 innings.

Richards’ problems come from the rest of his arsenal. His fastball has been hammered for a .306 AVG and .136 ISO. His fastball not only has below average velocity at 91 MPH, but it has a lower spin rate (2086 RPM) than his changeup (2179). That is not good company to be in, as the other notable starters with a higher spin rate on their changeup compared to their fastball are Danny Duffy, Jason Vargas, Kyle Hendricks, and Jarlin Garcia. All of those pitchers are below average in FIP, K/BB ratio, and swinging strike rate, and only Hendricks has been somewhat usable in mixed leagues. Those pitchers have other issues and a difference in spin rate between offspeed pitches and fastballs aren’t the root cause of their problems, however it's not good company to keep.

Another of Richards’ problems is an uncharacteristically high 10.5% walk rate. It’s uncharacteristic because he always had stellar control in the minors, including a 2.7% walk rate at Triple-A this season. He may be experiencing the same problem we saw with Jonathan Loaisiga, that major league hitters will take close pitches in situations where minor leaguers would swing. Despite a 46.6% O-swing rate on his changeup Richards only has a 28.8% O-swing rate overall, and that’s seems to be for two reasons. First, he lives in the zone with his fastball too much with a 56% zone rate. Second, he can’t get anyone to chase it. Here’s a chart of his fastball swing rate based on pitch location (from brooksbaseball.net).

So it’s a catch-22 for Richards. His fastball isn’t good enough to challenge hitters in the strike zone, but they won’t nibble on it either. This is something he can try and iron out throughout the season, and since he’s displayed such a good ability to limit walks in the minors there is reason to hope he does, but it presents a problem for him in the immediate future. His high walk rate has also been influenced by a six-walk game against the Brewers, and is a much more manageable 8.3% if we exclude that game.

Verdict:

Richards’ changeup is for real, everything else is a work in progress. There is something here, and it’s why Richards can have performances like this game at Coors or a four inning, ten strikeout game against the Dodgers earlier this season. He can also get tanked in any given outing, and he’s allowed five or more runs in three of his nine starts. He’s kind of like a poor man’s version of Kevin Gausman or Caleb Smith. We aren’t always sure who’s going to show up, and matchups matter less for these types of pitchers because it’s a matter of whether their one good pitch is working or not. He’s best used situationally in weekly leagues, where you’d be willing to shoulder risk for the chance at a start like this one. He’s still only 1% owned in Yahoo leagues as of writing this, and he’s at least worth an NL-Only flier.

 
Anthony DeSclafani, Cincinnati Reds

2018 Stats (prior to this start): 4.60 ERA, 4.45 FIP, 3.8 K/BB ratio

06/23 vs. CHC: 6.1 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 3 K

After missing the entire 2017 season with a sprained UCL in his pitching elbow, DeSclafani rejoined the Reds’ rotation in early June. On Saturday he went out and crushed a grand slam… err, I mean, had his third straight start with only two runs allowed. As far as pitching repertoire goes, DeSclafani looks the same since we last saw him. He still throws in the 93-94 MPH range with his four-seamer, and primarily leans on his four-seamer, sinker, and slider. He throws the occasional changeup and curveball, but for him it’s mostly about those two fastballs and his slider.

His slider only managed a modest three whiffs in this start, and he had just five whiffs total. DeSclafani’s value never came from strikeouts, but his 6.5% swinging strike rate is even lower than his already low career average of 9.3%. His best skill had been inducing infield flyballs with his fastballs and slider. Despite only a 44% groundball rate from his sinker in 2016 he had a 29% infield flyball rate with the pitch, and infield flyball rates over 30% with his four-seamer and slider. He hasn’t replicated that yet, as he only has a 3.8% infield flyball rate so far. His four-seam fastball is a big reason for this. DeSclafani’s four-seamer has been absolutely demolished so far, with a .444 AVG and .389 ISO against along with a 47% line drive rate. Without the infield flyballs to lean on DeSclafani has already given up eight extra-base hits and has a .799 xSLG against on his fastball. It’s only been four starts, but this is scary. Using a flyball heavy pitcher that doesn’t get strikeouts in Great American Ballpark isn’t just playing with fire, it’s pyromania.

It would be nice to say that DeSclafani is back, but a start where he allows two home runs and walks more than he strikes out is not encouraging. He’s coming back from a significant elbow injury, and although he avoided Tommy John Surgery DeSclafani may struggle to find control for a while. Reigning in the home runs would be a good start towards fantasy viability for him. They weren’t a huge problem for him in past seasons, but baseball underwent a power surge while DeSclafani was on the sidelines. Certain pitchers, like Jake Odorizzi for example, never had home run issues until 2016 but now can’t keep the ball in the yard. We need to see more from DeSclafani before he enters the circle of trust again. If this start against the Cubs was him pitching well, we don’t want to be around for his bad starts.

Verdict:

The results might look like vintage DeSclafani, but a lack of infield flyballs and an increase in both walks and homers make it unlikely that guy is coming back anytime soon. DeSclafani’s fantasy value came from his low-upside yet relatively safe pitching style. Now he’s still low upside, but he’s no longer safe. DeSclafani is a name worth remembering and watching to see if he reverses these trends, but the current iteration is not mixed league viable.

 
Andrew Suarez, San Francisco Giants

2018 Stats (prior to this week): 53 IP, 4.92 ERA, 3.86 FIP, 4.5 K/BB ratio

06/18 vs MIA: 6.1 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 7 K
06/23 vs. SD: 5.2 IP, 8 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K

Suarez took advantage of a dream two-start week against the Padres and Marlins, but even before this week he had some interesting peripherals and encouraging recent performance. Over Suarez’s last six starts he has a 3.24 ERA, 3.05 FIP, and 5.2 K/BB ratio. His overall 4.69 K/BB ratio and 3.48 SIERA make it look like Suarez is on the precipice of something special.  Now, those numbers were certainly influenced by his last three starts, one against the Padres and two against the Marlins, but Suarez’s hot stretch cannot be ignored regardless of competition.

Suarez has a deep arsenal, consisting of a 92.5 MPH four-seam and two-seam fastball, a slider, a changeup, and a curveball. Suarez is a bit like DeSclafani, because he mostly throws his fastballs and slider and occasionally mixes in the changeup and curveball. Suarez also doesn’t get many whiffs; he only has a 7.3% swinging strike rate and only had 15 whiffs in these two starts. Despite only eight swinging strikes Suarez was effective at getting called strikes. 73 of his 109 strikes thrown between these two starts were either called or swinging, a 67% rate (generally anything above 60% is considered good). He’s also excelled at getting groundballs. Suarez has a 50% groundball rate, and a 60% groundball rate with his slider and 59% groundball rate with his sinker. Even though he’s allowed nine home runs in 65 innings, five of those came in his first four starts and he’s allowed 0.8 HR/9 since then. Based on Suarez’s groundball rate and home ballpark it seems likely that home runs won’t be a lasting issue.

What’s concerning about Suarez is how hard his fastballs have been hit this season. Pitchers with bad fastballs seem to be a recurring theme this week, and Suarez is no different. Batters are hitting .321 with a .274 ISO and 12 extra base hits against his four-seamer. His sinker is being handled for a .325 AVG, but with a .025 ISO and no home runs allowed it’s tolerable. Both of these pitches have performed better over his last six starts, and batters are actually hitting .188 against the two-seamer during that stretch, however this disparity in performance highlights the issue with a low dominance pitcher like Suarez. Pitchers that don’t get whiffs are like hitters that don’t take walks. In many ways they live and die by their BABIP. A swinging strike rate below 8% is not good, regardless of how many called strikes and groundballs he gets. Suarez does enough to qualify as a low-risk streamer, but the 23% strikeout rate seems inflated by the competition he's faced.

Verdict:

Suarez looks like a relatively safe yet low upside streamer. Unless facing an exceptionally tough hitting environment it would be hard to see him get absolutely crushed in any given start. His swinging strike late is alarmingly low, but with his ability to limit walks, get called strikes, and induce groundballs help make up for that. His ERA will probably fall somewhere between his current 4.43 ERA and 3.26 xFIP.

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