Wide Receiver Matchups to Target on Conference Championship Weekend - Khalil Shakir, Xavier Worthy, Dyami Brown

Conference Championship Weekend is here, meaning there are only three games left this NFL season. This will be the last weekend to take advantage of DFS and sportsbook value plays before the biggest betting weekend in all of sports. Let’s dive into the top WR matchups of the week.

Each week, we will use matchup data from PFF to determine wide receivers to target based on who they will be primarily lining up against that week. These are players more likely to return a 3x multiplier on their DraftKings salary, a benchmark for consistently winning DFS cash games. We hit this multiplier on 34 percent of our picks this season.

Below are three of the top WR vs. CB matchups for this week’s slate of conference championship games. Use these to set season-long lineups, make player-prop picks, and gain an edge in DFS.

Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills

$5.7K on DraftKings, $6.4K on FanDuel; vs. Chamarri Conner

Khalil Shakir had a relatively quiet breakout season for the Bills this year, finishing WR28 in fantasy with 949 receiving yards and four touchdowns. The 24-year-old was a true target hog, ranking sixth among all receivers with a 29 percent target rate this season. He also excelled after the catch, finishing the season second among receivers in yards after the catch with 670.

Sunday’s matchup with the Chiefs looks daunting on paper, with Kansas City entering the weekend as PFF’s third-best passing defense. That said, Shakir will largely avoid Chiefs CBs Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson, who rank as PFF’s fourth and 14th-best corners this year, respectively.

Buffalo’s leading receiver is projected to match up most often with CB Chamarri Conner in the slot, who ranks 64th among 116 eligible corners, according to PFF coverage grade.

The first time these two teams played each other, Shakir finished with 12 targets, his highest mark of the season. With this game looking to be a passing frenzy, Shakir is in line for another heavy workload. Shakir is a high-floor pick this week for cash games.

Khalil Shakir’s Last Two Games v. KC

15 Catches - 21 Targets - 114 Yards
1 Touchdown - 8 First Downs#BillsMafia | #NFL pic.twitter.com/PRaobP8XrS

— Buffalo Sports Talk (@BUFSportsTalk) January 22, 2025

Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs

$5.5K on DraftKings, $6.5K on FanDuel; vs. Taron Johnson

Worthy has become a significant part of the Chiefs offense over the second half of this season. He leads Kansas City wide receivers with 98 targets, 39 more looks than the next-highest receiver, DeAndre Hopkins, and more targets than all Chiefs RBs combined. 

The Kansas City offense now runs through Worthy and Travis Kelce, and the numbers back that up. The Chiefs rookie has averaged 8.75 touches per game over his last four starts, compared to 3.5 over his first 12 weeks. The Chiefs have consistently looked to get the ball into his hands through the air and on the ground. The rookie has at least one rush in 15 of the 17 games he played.

His hot finish to the regular season continued last week against the Texans, where he garnered a 21 percent target rate and was stopped at the goal line on his lone carry of the day.

Worthy’s matchup against the Bills in the AFC Championship should prove to be a heavier passing game script than the Divisional Round, presenting more opportunity for volume through the air. The first time these two teams faced off this season back in Week 11, Worthy finished with four catches for 61 yards and a touchdown.

With an elevated role in the offense this time around, Worthy is a top bet on Sunday.

Dyami Brown, Washington Commanders

$4.4K on DraftKings, $5.4K on FanDuel; vs. Darius Slay Jr.

The Commanders shocked the world last week, beating the top-seeded Lions. They enter their first NFC Championship since 1991 as six-point underdogs to the Eagles, who boast the second-best passing defense in the league by DVOA.

Commanders QB Jayden Daniels has been unflappable to this point. Last week against the league’s fourth-best passing defense, the rookie put up his best line of the season, going 22-of-31 for 299 yards and two touchdowns. Fourth-year receiver Dyami Brown was a key part of that performance, contributing eight targets and six catches for 98 yards (all season highs). 

Brown seems to be hitting his stride at the right time, having finished with five catches for 89 yards and a touchdown the week prior against Tampa Bay. Washington is averaging 283.5 passing yards per game this postseason and looks poised to increase that figure after this week with another passing game script. 

At $4.4K on DraftKings, Brown is a smart play for those looking to save salary at receiver and pay up elsewhere this Sunday.

Dyami Brown in the playoffs:

🪖 11 REC
🪖 187 Yards
🪖 5 Receptions of 15+ Yards (T-1st among WRs)
🪖 0 Drops
🪖 1 Touchdown pic.twitter.com/pIGsAwXEMn

— PFF Fantasy & Betting (@PFF_Fantasy) January 22, 2025

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Thanks for reading, and good luck with your DFS contests!

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