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Well, we only went 1-1 to close out the regular season last week. The Lions took care of business against the Minnesota Vikings and easily covered the 2.5-point spread. The Commanders, however, let us down after head coach Dan Quinn decided to pull Jayden Daniels from the game due to an injury scare. Washington would go on to win 23-19 over the Dallas Cowboys, but we missed the cover by half a point. Fortunately, we still finished Week 18 ahead by +.17 units.
Wild Card Weekend is always one of my favorite weeks of the NFL season as it marks the beginning of the road toward the Lombardi Trophy. I’ve identified two plays that I'm targeting in this round of games. So, let’s get to the action and have another week where we finish in the black.
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Los Angeles Rams (+1.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings
We have a rematch from a Week 8 showdown between these two teams. Los Angeles ultimately prevailed in that game with a 30-20 victory.
Demarcus Robinson x2! Another TD for the veteran WR#MINvsLAR on Prime Video
Also streaming on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/WnqsIzGuxF— NFL (@NFL) October 25, 2024
The Vikings are the NFL’s first 14-win Wild Card team, but they enter the playoffs on shaky ground following a blowout loss to the Detroit Lions on Sunday Night Football. One loss itself isn’t too concerning heading into the playoffs, but it’s how the Vikings lost that raises an eyebrow.
Quarterback Sam Darnold had his worst game of the season against a Lions defense that was ravaged by injuries. Darnold completed just 18-of-41 passes for 166 yards, but the game film was even worse.
Detroit blitzed Darnold for the majority of the game, but there were receivers open downfield. Darnold just got flustered and never saw them. The offensive line was also a major disaster. Jared Verse and the Rams defensive front could have a field day on this unit if Minnesota doesn’t quickly find answers.
This line opened at 2.5 and was quickly bet down to 1.5. Los Angeles is even favored in some books now, and I completely agree with the line move.
Darnold and the Minnesota offensive line showed serious flaws in last week’s game against Detroit, and the Rams defense will likely try and replicate the Lions' game plan. I make this game closer to a pick 'em and have put my money on the Rams to pull off the upset.
Pick: Rams +1.5 (-115) DraftKings Sportsbook
Risk 1.15 Units to Win 1 Unit
*This game has been moved to Phoenix, Arizona due to wildfires in Los Angeles. The spread has since moved to Rams +2.5, but I am still playing Los Angeles even with the venue change as I only make Minnesota one-point favorites on a neutral field.
Houston Texans (+2.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Houston has struggled this year and stumbled its way to an AFC South title. Its offense was a big problem as it ranks just 26th in offensive DVOA, per FTN Fantasy. The Chargers rank 12th in offensive DVOA and will have the advantage on that side of the ball.
Part of Houston’s struggles can be blamed on quarterback C.J. Stroud, but the offensive line also hasn’t been very good. The Texans passing offense has struggled since losing receivers Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs due to injury. They could have difficulty gaining traction against a Chargers defense that allows the seventh-fewest passing yards per game and ranks sixth in the league in sacks.
Houston’s defense has been its calling card this year as it ranks second in overall defensive DVOA, but Justin Herbert has played well this year and limited turnovers. The Los Angeles offensive line just has to do its job so Herbert can do his thing.
This line is fairly efficient, but I just think the Chargers are the better football team and have a big coaching advantage as well. Houston’s offensive problems will be an issue, and I expect the Chargers offense to be the difference in this game.
Pick: Chargers -2.5 (-118) FanDuel Sportsbook
Risk 1.18 Units to Win 1 Unit
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