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Hello, RotoBallers! The NHL season is in full swing, and we have another action-packed Saturday slate.
In this piece, I will discuss my favorite forward lines to target, defensemen, and goalies in tonight's action. Be sure to keep updated with any injury notes on our newsfeed before setting your lineup.
If you have any questions about further strategy and managing the slate, feel free to chat with me on X @A_Smith_FS. All player salaries will be listed as ($DK/FD).
Forward Lines To Target - NHL DFS Picks
Tampa Bay Lightning L1 - Jake Guentzel ($7.6K/$8.1K) - Brayden Point ($8.1K/$8.7K) - Nikita Kucherov ($9.6K/$9K)
Opponent - New York Rangers
The top unit in Tampa Bay will be a popular stack this evening, even with its hefty price tag. They will face a struggling New York Rangers team, which has lost five of its past six games and allowed eight goals in its past two games.
Overall, according to MoneyPuck, the Rangers have allowed the second-highest Expected Goals Against Per 60 during 5-on-5 play.
The top unit in Tampa Bay has generated a stellar 3.11 xGoals For Per 60 with a 53.2% xGoals.
Jake Guentzel can't stop scoring goals 🔥 pic.twitter.com/CSf0hlS9AD
— B/R Open Ice (@BR_OpenIce) December 24, 2024
Jake Guentzel has been one of the most productive goal scores over the past month. In his past ten contests, Guentzel has found the back of the net ten times, including four times on the power-play. Since the start of December, Brayden Point has scored 18 points over nine games.
Calgary Flames L1 - Jonathan Huberdeau ($4.6K/$5.6K) - Nazem Kadri ($6K/$6.3K) - Martin Pospisil ($3.5K/$4K)
Opponent- San Jose Sharks
The Calgary Flames will travel to San Jose to face the San Jose Sharks, who have allowed the fourth-most Expected Goals Against Per 60, according to MoneyPuck. Over their past three games, they have surrendered 11 goals.
The top line in Calgary, led by Nazem Kadri, has generated a strong 57.3% xGoals with a 3.1 xGoals For Per 60.
Kadri has only been held off the scoresheet on one occasion over his past seven games. During this stretch he has scored five times and tallied at least five shots in a game during two separate outings.
Since November 30 (ten games) Jonathan Huberdeau has only been held off the scoresheet in one game and has tallied 13 total points over this span.
Pittsburgh Penguins L1 - Rickard Rakell ($6.1K/$6.2K) - Sidney Crosby ($7.5K/$7.3K) - Bryan Rust ($6.6K/$6.9K)
Opponent - New York Islanders
There may not be a line coming into this game hotter than the top unit in Pittsburgh. This unit has almost single-handedly brought the Penguins back into the playoff picture.
Before the break, Sidney Crosby tallied 12 points in his previous six contests and Bryan Rust and Rickard Rakell have each tallied 11 over this stretch. Rakell has been especially effective, scoring five times during this six-game span.
A power-play goal for Rickard Rakell? We LOVE to see that! pic.twitter.com/wPUKgpmWHu
— Pittsburgh Penguins (@penguins) December 13, 2024
While the New York Islanders are in the middle of the pack when it comes to Expected Goals Against, given how well this line has performed they should be viewed as a safe stack with high upside.
Boston Bruins L2 - Morgan Geekie ($3.3K/$5K) - Charlie Coyle ($3K/$4.1K) - David Pastrnak ($8.8K/$7.9K)
Opponent - Columbus Blue Jackets
My final top unit to target is the second line of the Boston Bruins. The Bruins will be hosting the Columbus Blue Jacks, who have allowed the sixth-most Expected Goals Against Per 60 this season.
This line has generated an impressive 63.4% xGoals and an average of 2.81 xGoals For Per 60 across a hefty 192 minutes of shared ice time.
Over his past five games before the break, Morgan Geekie tallied five points (three goals, two helpers), while David Pastrnak has tallied seven points over this span.
Other Top Lines To Target (Cash/GPP):
- BOS L1
- NYI L1
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Defensemen To Target - NHL DFS Picks
Victor Hedman - Tampa Bay Lightning ($6.6K/$7K)
Opponent - New York Rangers
Over his past ten contests, Hedman has tallied ten points (all helpers), with four of them coming on the man-advantage. During this stretch, he tallied at least three blocks in two games and posted six multi-shot performances.
On the power-play, the Lightning have generated the fourth-most Expected Goals For Per 60, putting him in ample scoring situations throughout the evening, especially facing a struggling Rangers team.
In 5-on-5 play, he and Darren Raddysh have posted an excellent 59.7% xGoals with a 2.94 xGoals For Per 60.
John Carlson - Washington Capitals ($5.7K/$6.2K)
Opponent - New Jersey Devils
Even though John Carlson has been held off the scoresheet over his past five games, he should be in a good position to break out of this slump this evening against the New Jersey Devils.
Before this cold stretch, Carlson was very productive from an offensive standpoint, scoring nine points (over an eight-game sample). During this stretch, he logged at least three blocked shots in four games and four or more shots in three games.
While he has been held off the scoresheet, he is still very involved in the offense, registering at least three shots in two of these games.
In 5-on-5 play, he boasts a stellar 62.7% xGoals and is the QB1 of the eighth-best power-play in terms of Expected Goals, which suggests he is due for significant positive regression.
MacKenzie Weegar - Calgary Flames ($6.3K/$5.9K)
Opponent - San Jose Sharks
My final defenseman to target is MacKenzie Weegar. Weegar recently broke out of a six-game scoring drought by tallying two helpers on December 21. However, before this cold stretch, Weegar tallied eight points over his previous eight contests.
In 5-on-5 play, he and Joel Hanley have generated a solid 60.5% xGoals. Weegar is also deployed as the QB1 of the Calgary power-play, which has generated the ninth-most Expected Goals For Per 60, according to MoneyPuck.
In addition to his scoring upside, Weegar has averaged 3.2 hits and 2.1 blocks per game over his past ten contests.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP):
- Erik Karlsson - Pittsburgh Penguins ($4.6K/$5.8K)
- Noah Dobson - New York Islanders ($5.9K/$6K)
Goalies To Target - NHL DFS Picks
Andrei Vasilevskiy - Tampa Bay Lightning ($8K/$8K)
Opponent - New York Rangers
During December, Vasilevskiy held a 5-2 record with a .918% SV and a 2.17 GAA across seven starts. He will be facing the Rangers, who have been in a downward spiral throughout last month.
A big shutout for the Big Cat! 😸
Andrei Vasilevskiy picks up his second @pepsi shutout of the season! pic.twitter.com/5iuZtc00kN
— NHL (@NHL) November 17, 2024
While he may not face a hefty shot total, he carries a high floor, given that he should have a strong chance to pick up a victory and potentially a shutout.
Dustin Wolf - Calgary Flames ($8.3K/$8.5K)
Opponent - San Jose Sharks
My other goalie options have a lot more risk but could be a sneaky pay-off. Dustin Wolf will face the San Jose Sharks, who have generated the fifth-lowest Expected Goal For Per 60 this season.
However, while on paper, this seems like a great play, Wolf has not been the most reliable netminder. Over his past five starts, Wolf has held a 2-2-1 record with an underwhelming .885% SV.
While he does carry some risk, he could be in store for a strong bounce-back showing.
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